WWI Entente Victory With Russia Still In?

Say somehow, someway, Russia manages to NOT drop out of the war with Brest-Livotsk and stays in until Germany surrenders.

What does the peace treaty and post-war world look like?
 
Russia arguably *was* still in the war, both the Allies and Central Powers invaded its territory in the middle of a civil war which served primarily to piss the victors off without seriously harming them.
 
First of all, all the allies had already committed themselves to Polish independence, and it was one of the most prominent of the 14 points. Second, many Russian liberals, as well as the Bolsheviks, had also declared their support for Polish independence. So what matters here is which Russian government is at the negotiating table. If it's the Tsar, then what they'd argue for would be a restoration of Congress Poland, perhaps with Posen added - Poland would be independent, but in personal union with Russia. (Whether they held to those principles is unclear.)

Otherwise, Poland will be independent, but with an eastern border fixed somewhere along the Curzon Line.
 
First of all, all the allies had already committed themselves to Polish independence, and it was one of the most prominent of the 14 points. Second, many Russian liberals, as well as the Bolsheviks, had also declared their support for Polish independence. So what matters here is which Russian government is at the negotiating table. If it's the Tsar, then what they'd argue for would be a restoration of Congress Poland, perhaps with Posen added - Poland would be independent, but in personal union with Russia. (Whether they held to those principles is unclear.)

Otherwise, Poland will be independent, but with an eastern border fixed somewhere along the Curzon Line.

I assumed the POD was no October Revolution and as a result a Tsarist Russia survives.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Tsarist or Republican, a Russia that manages to stay in the war long enough to have a seat at Versailles is not going to give up Poland. They'll tell Wilson where he can shove such a suggestion.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
What about Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia? Would they be formed?
Yugoslavia will definitely be supported. Czechoslovakia, too, though Russia will likely try and stop "self-determination" from being introduced into the diplomatic language.

That being said, continued domination of Poland by a Russian Republic will probably mean that Poland gets a bit more autonomy, sort of like Finland.
 
Speaking of Finland, how would we see the break-off states that formed during the revolutions fare? Would they still break-off from a war-weary Russia, and with no other choice would the Tsar/Mensheviks/Whoever just let them go?
 
Working on the assumption that a general collapse is avoided, perhaps because the Entente win before it happens:

Sazonov, who had the ear of the Tsar and dominated Russian policy-making in the earlier part of the war, was for expanding Poland - which was going to become more Polish, although probably not go as far as Finland if the government had its way - into Great Poland and Upper Silesia. He specifically didn't want to create a corridor (so that Poland would depend on Russia economically) or annexing even the Slavic parts of East Prussia (he didn't want to make what he saw as the same mistake the Germans made in Alsace).

The generals, on the other hand, were for a new border in Prussia at the Vistula. Most of the senior army leadership advocated Polish autonomy for military reasons by the end of the war, but I don't know whether they wanted all the territory taken from Germany to be attached to Poland.

I don't think the empress, Rasputin, or the conservatives in the court had much of an opinion on the border, although they were of course against Polish autonomy.

Everybody of course wanted Galicia. Bukovina too, if it was going.

Had a republic taken over, I imagine they would have stayed close to Sazonov's ideas; but as Wolfpaw says, if Russia the state actually exists and is in the war, they're going to tell anyone suggesting Polish independence to stuff it. They did. Several times.

The Russians wanted Greater Serbia at least; is it's late enough that Austria still falls over, they'd certainly support the Yugoslav project, as they were hostile to Italian designs in the Adriatic. Fellow Slavs and etcetera. Likewise, I imagine that a Russian republic would be keen on the idea of a Czechoslovak one, although how the tsar would deal with an Austrian collapse I honestly don't know: the only plan I can ever recall hearing about was to use the Czechs as a lever within a continuing Hapsburg state, to try and replace German with Russian domination of it. Frankly it seems to me that if one empire's on the way out, so in all likelihood is the other. But there was some vague spraffle about finding a likely-looking Grand Duke and setting up a Slavic kingdom of some sort - at least according to The Good Soldier Shvejk. :D

The Russians did want Constantinople and the straits, but a) I don't suppose a republic would be as emphatic as the Tsar's lot and b) getting there's the problem. They were also going to annex a swathe of eastern Anatolia, probably, because they'd kind of backed themselves into it with the whole "We're protecting Christianity from teh Ebol Muslims" deal.

They might take Posen and some strips of southern West Prussia, but they won't try to take all of it like that. They wouldn't be able to hold it.

Why not? It's not like the Russian Empire didn't include much larger territories where the people had no particular reason to sympathise with it. The worry of those opposed to such an annexation was that it would poison future relations with Germany, not that it would be any harder for Russian to sit on German than it was for Russian and German to sit on Pole.
 
Speaking of Finland, how would we see the break-off states that formed during the revolutions fare? Would they still break-off from a war-weary Russia, and with no other choice would the Tsar/Mensheviks/Whoever just let them go?

I can see Finland possibly making an exit if there's even a bit of revolutionary outbreak to distract Russia, but Estonia and Latvia aren't going anywhere until the Germans are seen off: the Latvians, in fact, would rather have had Bolsheviks than the barons. Lithuania and Poland are under German occupation unless we've got a really early PoD, of course, but Russia's not going to be keen on giving either of them away, tsar or not.

If Russia is still on Team World Freedom and Apple Pie, Romania won't get away with adventuring in Besserabia (they'd hinted support for Romania's expanding in the other direction since before the war, though).
 
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