WWI: Effects of a disastrous Russian Eastern Front on the Caucasus Campaign?

[Fehérvári]

Currently, I'm working on a TL inwhich Russia doesn't have its OTL successes on the Eastern Front in 1914. To summarise: The Russian Third Army got encircled and almost entirely destroyed, the Fourth and Fifth Armies were beaten too, while the OTL German victories of Tannenberg and Masurian Lakes still take place as well. Most of Congress Poland is occupied by the Central Powers, specifically everything to the Kholm-Lublin-Ivangorod-Warsaw line including said cities. The Russians still hold the left bank of the Bug River North to Kholm until the Narew River, and a salient in Masovia including Pułtusk.

Now, my question is, that what changes could all of this bring to the Caucasus Campaign if the Battle of Sarikamish still take place like IOTL? Would the Russians redeploy most of their present forces to Europe and abandon their offensive approach in the region? Would they still attempt an invasion, just with heavier reliance on local irregular/volunteer/insurgent forces? Something else?

Bonus question: What would be the further implications of a lack of Gallipoli Campaign on the given situation?

Thank you in advance for your replies, I'm eager to read them!

 

[TimTurner]

Austria-Hungary gains the most from this. The Russian offensive utterly damaged them to such an extent that they never recovered.

 

[Fehérvári]

Austria-Hungary gains the most from this. The Russian offensive utterly damaged them to such an extent that they never recovered.

Well of course, and thank you for your reply, but I'm interested in the Caucasus Campaign right now. Do you have any ideas regarding that particular front?

 

[TimTurner]

Well of course, and thank you for your reply, but I'm interested in the Caucasus Campaign right now. Do you have any ideas regarding that particular front?

No Russian successes there might butterfly the Armenian Genocide.

 

[Derff]

Or simply accelerated it

 

[Fehérvári]

No Russian successes there might butterfly the Armenian Genocide.

Yes, that's a likely possibility, but given, that the main initiator of the genocide was the Battle of Sarikamish, more specifically Enver Pasha blaming the loss on the Armenians, some lesser pogroms could still take place imo.

Or simply accelerated it

The Armenian Genocide or the Russian offensive in the Caucasus?

 

[TimTurner]

Or simply accelerated it

Not among the likeliest possibilities.

Yes, that's a likely possibility, but given, that the main initiator of the genocide was the Battle of Sarikamish, more specifically Enver Pasha blaming the loss on the Armenians, some lesser pogroms could still take place imo.

Yeah I expect some pogroms for sure.

 

[anotherlurker]

Pre war Russian generals argued that in case of war the Russian army should pull back like during Napoleons invasion, let the land swallow the invader, they were overruled by the Tsar who wanted to uphold his committments to France - that the war should be offensive in nature. With this going completely south i'd expect them to curse the French to hell and pull back the troop to more defensible positions away from the Germany/A-H supply train to regroup/reorganize/reman. The front against the Ottomans is going to get stripped of anything that looks combat worthy to send West to guard against the incoming extra armies of the Germans/A-Hs, and possibly Romanians as there's simply nothing worth defending or attacking in the Caucasus, the Turks will go deeper in, then winter hits and they can not be supplies and freeze their asses off.

 

[Protagoras]

Enver's plan was insane, and Turkish casualities seem to have come mostly from weather and typhus rather than Russians OTL. I suppose it's possible for some combination of Russian forces being stripped away to bolster the German/Austrian front and Russian incompetence to turn Sarikamish into an incredibly costly "victory" instead of an incontrovertible defeat, though. Which might indeed have prevented the Armenian genocide, at least in the short term.

 

[cjc]

Pre war Russian generals argued that in case of war the Russian army should pull back like during Napoleons invasion, let the land swallow the invader, they were overruled by the Tsar who wanted to uphold his committments to France - that the war should be offensive in nature. With this going completely south i'd expect them to curse the French to hell and pull back the troop to more defensible positions away from the Germany/A-H supply train to regroup/reorganize/reman. The front against the Ottomans is going to get stripped of anything that looks combat worthy to send West to guard against the incoming extra armies of the Germans/A-Hs, and possibly Romanians as there's simply nothing worth defending or attacking in the Caucasus, the Turks will go deeper in, then winter hits and they can not be supplies and freeze their asses off.

Well the tzar actually dint influence this decision much, it was mainly a prity heated discussion among the general staff thoe and the reason the attacking faction won was less to do whith helping France (more of Russia's army would have attacked Germany if that was the case) and more to do whith the desire to conquer galicia (which had a significant Ukrainian population and was weirdly called virgin Russian land ) inorder to brake the polish bulge.

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

Well, in the last month i was seeing some threads in the subject, so take this quote:

At Sarikamish, One of Enver Pasha's generals is not captured by Russian forces, as he was captured by Armenians, or Russians (Can't remember) and he held the plans for the invasion while the Ottoman forces were marching through the Caucasus, when Enver Pasha's general was captured, the Russians were able to fortify defenses. If the commander isn't captured, Sarikamish will be absolutely destroyed.
and the Ottomans maintain the element of surprise, and since Sarikamish only had a few defenses, as they thought a winter offensive in the Caucasus was impossible, they easily take Sarikamish. This makes some Chechen Muslims and other Muslims advocate independent revolution from Russia and some militias start to organize a revolution