WWI delayed 10 years

[Grey Wolf]

Since AH got a new emperor in OTL in 1917 when Franz-Joseph died, would we have Emperor Franz-Ferdinand? How would, if at all, AH geopolitical strategy changed over the decade?

What about Italy's political development?

The coming together of the accession of Franz Ferdinand and the renewal of the Ausgleich could lead to a political crisis that would make 1906 pale into insignificance.

Franz Ferdinand had no love for the Hungarians and they surely had no love for him. He would need the assent of the Hungarian ruling class to be crowned as King of Hungary, a separate coronation from the Austrian one, and one held in Budapest.

The renewal of the Ausgleich could be AH's Ireland in this scenario

Grey Wolf

 

[Redbeard]

At the rate that Germany was developing some of their colonies, there could well be some impressive changes. I wouldn't want to try to take Ost Afrika from the Germans after 10 more years of development. By contrast, I suspect the Belgian Congo would be no better, perhaps even worse, in 1924, considering the Belgian's harshness.
Other changes would affect the colonies throughout the world, too.
One thing I feel fairly confident about--the Europeans would have more resepct for the US by this time, the American fleet is a serious force.
In addition, the USN has a vast margin of superiority in individual ships, since the rest of the world is not using All or Nothing Armor. (The USN introduced this armor layout well before Jutalnd, but the rest of the world didn't go for it until the lessons of Jutland had been digested. I heard the USN's ships described as 'post Jutalnd ships before Jutland')
This advantage won't really be known until--and if--the United States Navy gets into a major battle.

The USN will discover huge disadvangtages.

In this scenario the USN will not join the GF and will so be void of the great learning experience in especially gunnery and handling of large fleets. On top of that the USN had serious trouble with accuracy of guns from 8" and up until mid-late 30's. In OTL the (ballistic) accuracy problem in the 20's alone gave the 14"/50 ships a hit rate half that of the 14"/45 and 16"/45. If now adding a "no lesson from the GF" my guess is an average hitrate for the USN well below half that of RN!

Next, it is uncertain if the OTL building programme gets initiated, but if it does, it will produce a very unbalanced USN well into the 30's. Too many slow battleships and to little scouting.

The AoN armour lay-out surely impressed the press when introduced, but will only be advantageous in long range gunnery. The USN early on put great emphasis on long range gunnery as battles were expected in clear weather Pacific conditions, but the serious hitting trouble will reinforce the main problem of long range gunnery - you risk running out of ammo before having achieved hits enough to decide the battle.

You don't win battles by having good armour but by hitting.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Hansmeister]

The coming together of the accession of Franz Ferdinand and the renewal of the Ausgleich could lead to a political crisis that would make 1906 pale into insignificance.

Franz Ferdinand had no love for the Hungarians and they surely had no love for him. He would need the assent of the Hungarian ruling class to be crowned as King of Hungary, a separate coronation from the Austrian one, and one held in Budapest.

The renewal of the Ausgleich could be AH's Ireland in this scenario

Grey Wolf

Really? I always thought that FF was a political moderate. Do you have any info on the political views of Franz Ferdinand.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Really? I always thought that FF was a political moderate. Do you have any info on the political views of Franz Ferdinand.

Only what I vaguely remember with regards to having formulated various plans with regard to trying to find a federal solution. I'm not sure what state these plans were in when he was assassinated - he had advocated some ideas (eg the Kingdom of Bosnia IIRC) and then changed his mind several times. But one of the reasons why he was such a good target for the Black Hand was that he was seen as being the man who could rescue the Habsburg monarchy by bringing in the South Slavs more fully. Obviously, this did not endear him to the Hungarians whose dominance over their ethnic minorities was very much at the centre of their power. Franz Ferdinand also viewed the Hungarians as arrogant and dangerous, all tying it sort of together

Grey Wolf

 

[Hansmeister]

Only what I vaguely remember with regards to having formulated various plans with regard to trying to find a federal solution. I'm not sure what state these plans were in when he was assassinated - he had advocated some ideas (eg the Kingdom of Bosnia IIRC) and then changed his mind several times. But one of the reasons why he was such a good target for the Black Hand was that he was seen as being the man who could rescue the Habsburg monarchy by bringing in the South Slavs more fully. Obviously, this did not endear him to the Hungarians whose dominance over their ethnic minorities was very much at the centre of their power. Franz Ferdinand also viewed the Hungarians as arrogant and dangerous, all tying it sort of together

Grey Wolf

I see, I always had heard about his ideas for federalism, I hadn't considered how the Hungarians might react towards it.