WWI alternative beginning?

Hi, I was reading Roy Hattersley's The Edwardians and he writes the following about the Treaty of Bucharest (1913):
"The gains were about to be ratified in the Treaty of Bucharest when Austria suggested to Germany and Italy that they should make a direct assault on Belgrade. Italy declined and this postponed the Great War by a full year." (p.476)
I am intrigued to know what you clever people think would have happened if Austria, Germany and Italy had invaded Belgrade a year before the start of the war.
Thanks in advance!
And if this has been mentioned somewhere else on the forum, apologies. I had a search but couldn't find anything.
Cheers!:)
 
Hi, I was reading Roy Hattersley's The Edwardians and he writes the following about the Treaty of Bucharest (1913):
"The gains were about to be ratified in the Treaty of Bucharest when Austria suggested to Germany and Italy that they should make a direct assault on Belgrade. Italy declined and this postponed the Great War by a full year." (p.476)
I am intrigued to know what you clever people think would have happened if Austria, Germany and Italy had invaded Belgrade a year before the start of the war.
Thanks in advance!
And if this has been mentioned somewhere else on the forum, apologies. I had a search but couldn't find anything.
Cheers!:)

The problem for Italy are two.
First the Italo-Turkish war is just finished, so she needs time to replenish and refurbish is army (one of the reason of the initial bad performnce of the Italian army in OTL WWI, the replenish was not still finished).
Second and more importants...what's for her? Vienna still don't want give any type of compensation for the acquisition of Bosnia and there are friction about Albania, but if Vienna for a single time try to be smart can give some concession to Italy for convince her to join the attack, otherwise the answer of Rome will be ' Do your dirty work alone and don't bother us'
 
The problem for Italy are two.
First the Italo-Turkish war is just finished, so she needs time to replenish and refurbish is army (one of the reason of the initial bad performnce of the Italian army in OTL WWI, the replenish was not still finished).
Second and more importants...what's for her? Vienna still don't want give any type of compensation for the acquisition of Bosnia and there are friction about Albania, but if Vienna for a single time try to be smart can give some concession to Italy for convince her to join the attack, otherwise the answer of Rome will be ' Do your dirty work alone and don't bother us'

That's very interesting. Thanks for your comments!
So Vienna would have to offer more land for Italy? Perhaps Treiste?
I wonder why Germany refused Vienna's offer to invade? Did they not feel ready to implement the Schlieffen Plan? [FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]
 
Trieste was Austria's main port, and by far the most important. While Trento, parts of Istria and maybe Gorizia are possible concessions, Trieste is not. Ceding that city was almost tantamount to dissolve the Austrian Empire as far as Vienna was concerned, or short of. Not something they would renounce wityhout a fight. On the other hand, Italy is not very likely to act for something less than the the whole Kuenstenland plus Trentino, and surely not for an arrangement where Trieste and the area between it and Laibach or Vienna stay in Austrian hands.
 
Trieste was Austria's main port, and by far the most important. While Trento, parts of Istria and maybe Gorizia are possible concessions, Trieste is not. Ceding that city was almost tantamount to dissolve the Austrian Empire as far as Vienna was concerned, or short of. Not something they would renounce wityhout a fight. On the other hand, Italy is not very likely to act for something less than the the whole Kuenstenland plus Trentino, and surely not for an arrangement where Trieste and the area between it and Laibach or Vienna stay in Austrian hands.

You're absolutely right about Treiste.
Trento perhaps looks the most likely as you pointed out. I wonder what Austria offered Italy? Hattersley doesn't say. I'll do some more reading and see if I can find out.
Yet perhaps a more likely alternative is that Germany and Austria invade Belgrade without Italy? I wonder what stopped them. Did they feel at the time that Italy's backing was necessary?
 
The problem of the Triple Alliance was :

- Germany and Austria settled their problems in 1866, and Germany was successful to drive austrian's ambitions on the Balkans, rather than Germany,

- but Austria and Italy didn't settle anything after 1866, and they were still territorials demands from Italy on Austria, and italians ambitions was still not satisfied on only colonials ambitions,

- Italy was a country who build herself by fighting differents wars against Austria in the XIX century, but even before when the Habsbourg where the masters/occupiers of more than half of Italy. Austria and Italy were kind of archenemies.

In reality, alliance of Italy with Prussia and after it Germany was only an alliance against Austria, which remain italian target during the all Risogirmento. Germany was never able to focus Italy attention against the French for example, because Savoy was never an italian territory, just a part of the Savoie family territory and Nice was heavily frenchified since at least the Revolution times...
 
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I kinda want to see something like this begin a war, instead of after three years.

Now that's a battle that would indeed inflate expectations at the beginning of a war.

The problem of the Triple Alliance was :

- Germany and Austria settled their problems in 1866, and Germany was successful to drive austrian's ambitions on the Balkans, rather than Germany,

- but Austria and Italy didn't settle anything after 1866, and they were still territorials demands from Italy on Austria, and italians ambitions was still not satisfied on only colonials ambitions,

- Italy was a country who build herself by fighting differents wars against Austria in the XIX century, but even before when the Habsbourg where the masters/occupiers of more than half of Italy. Austria and Italy were kind of archenemies.

In reality, alliance of Italy with Prussia and after it Germany was only an alliance against Austria, which remain italian target during the all Risogirmento. Germany was never able to focus Italy attention against the French for example, because Savoy was never an italian territory, just a part of the Savoie family territory and Nice was heavily frenchified since at least the Revolution times...

So Italy would have been extremely reluctant to make good on the Triple Alliance. Would an offer to Italy of the latest military technology from Germany sweetened the deal in anyway? But then Germany would have to be as keen as Austria which it seems they weren't...though of course they could be made to be..!
Am I right in thinking that Germany wouldn't have made a secret deal with Italy behind Austria's back because they were closer to each other than Italy was with any of them?
Thanks for all this really interesting input!:)
 

abc123

Banned
The problem for Italy are two.
First the Italo-Turkish war is just finished, so she needs time to replenish and refurbish is army (one of the reason of the initial bad performnce of the Italian army in OTL WWI, the replenish was not still finished).
Second and more importants...what's for her? Vienna still don't want give any type of compensation for the acquisition of Bosnia and there are friction about Albania, but if Vienna for a single time try to be smart can give some concession to Italy for convince her to join the attack, otherwise the answer of Rome will be ' Do your dirty work alone and don't bother us'

What about giving Montenegro and Albania as a vassal states to Italy?
Could that work?

Win-win situation for AH, IMHO.
 
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What about giving Montenegro and Albania as a vassal states to Italy?
Could that work?

Win-win situation for AH, IMHO.

Oooh that works for me! Especially if Vienna was suspicious of Montenegro's loyalty to the Empire. I did read somewhere that King Nicolas was in secret talks with the Austro-Hungarians from the beginning of the war.
About Albania I don't know enough to say for sure.
 
Joining the Central Powers for Italy was a move to secure herself against France, expecially after the 'Slap of Tunisi'.
Giolitti can be persuaded to enter the war for something less that the all enchilada, basicaly Trent and at least the east side of the Isonzo and some concession for the italian minority, but something who will surely want will be a clear sphere of influence on the balkans so or Albania or Montenegro (not both, Vienna will not permit that) must be given to Italy (probably Montenegro as the Queen of Italy is the daughter of king of Montenegro so a personal union can be created/extorted/claimed).
The problem in all that is the great reluctance of Vienna in given even the slightest concession to Italy expecially a position where they can control the Adriatic, in OTL WWI Germany basically coerced Vienna to give something to Italy in exchange to neutrality...but immeditaly the chief of A-H diplomacy try to forge an accord with the German to later renege all, just to saying that, and even if for some reason in Vienna there is a moment of clarity Italy has logistic problem because has just finished the war with the Turks
 

abc123

Banned
Joining the Central Powers for Italy was a move to secure herself against France, expecially after the 'Slap of Tunisi'.
Giolitti can be persuaded to enter the war for something less that the all enchilada, basicaly Trent and at least the east side of the Isonzo and some concession for the italian minority, but something who will surely want will be a clear sphere of influence on the balkans so or Albania or Montenegro (not both, Vienna will not permit that) must be given to Italy (probably Montenegro as the Queen of Italy is the daughter of king of Montenegro so a personal union can be created/extorted/claimed).
The problem in all that is the great reluctance of Vienna in given even the slightest concession to Italy expecially a position where they can control the Adriatic, in OTL WWI Germany basically coerced Vienna to give something to Italy in exchange to neutrality...but immeditaly the chief of A-H diplomacy try to forge an accord with the German to later renege all, just to saying that, and even if for some reason in Vienna there is a moment of clarity Italy has logistic problem because has just finished the war with the Turks

Well, IMO, Trentino and Albania in personal union with Italy should be enough.
Also a recognition of special interest of Italy in Montenegro. Also, give a hint to Italy that in case of war with Serbia, Albania will get Kosovo.
Italy should allow for A-H naval base in Albania like in Vlora so that they have a undisturbed acess into a Mediteranean..
 
What about giving Montenegro and Albania as a vassal states to Italy?
Could that work?

Win-win situation for AH, IMHO.

No. Austria was adamant about keeping Italy out of the Balkans as far as she was concerned. Vienna knew that after all, that would not make Italians forget about Trento and Trieste any more than Congo made France forget about Alsace and Lorraine, while putting Italy in a far stronger military position vs. Austria.
The problem of the Triple Alliance, shortly said, was that two of the so called allies actually percieved each other as something variating from a hostile rival to a restless nemesis.
 
Well, IMO, Trentino and Albania in personal union with Italy should be enough.
Also a recognition of special interest of Italy in Montenegro. Also, give a hint to Italy that in case of war with Serbia, Albania will get Kosovo.
Italy should allow for A-H naval base in Albania like in Vlora so that they have a undisturbed acess into a Mediteranean..

A very logical and reasonable proposal congratulations, unfortunately between my country and A-H during their alliance period reason and logic were in very short supply.
It can be done, but only with Giolitti in charge (and the pubblic support of the king ...so i think more of Montenegro plus some parts of Albania in personal union with Italy and the rest of Albania to the A-H but both proposal can work out) and with A-H showing some reason (and put FF aside) and Germany making itself the guarantor of the treaty it's a real possibility
 

abc123

Banned
A very logical and reasonable proposal congratulations, unfortunately between my country and A-H during their alliance period reason and logic were in very short supply.
It can be done, but only with Giolitti in charge (and the pubblic support of the king ...so i think more of Montenegro plus some parts of Albania in personal union with Italy and the rest of Albania to the A-H but both proposal can work out) and with A-H showing some reason (and put FF aside) and Germany making itself the guarantor of the treaty it's a real possibility

Yes, more reason would be a good thing.
No need for german guarantees, best guarantees are mutual interests of both countries.
And yes, Giolitti should be in charge.
Wasn't he a favourite of the King?
 

abc123

Banned
No. Austria was adamant about keeping Italy out of the Balkans as far as she was concerned. Vienna knew that after all, that would not make Italians forget about Trento and Trieste any more than Congo made France forget about Alsace and Lorraine, while putting Italy in a far stronger military position vs. Austria.
The problem of the Triple Alliance, shortly said, was that two of the so called allies actually percieved each other as something variating from a hostile rival to a restless nemesis.

Keeping Italy out of Balkans? Why?
Isn't it better for A-H to share theburden of policing and pacification of Balkans, to divide Montenegro from Serbia, play with Albanians against Srebs...
Well, if Trentino was given to Italy, maybe they would, at least until after the war, forget about Trieste and Istria and Dalmatia...
 
Keeping Italy out of Balkans? Why?
Isn't it better for A-H to share theburden of policing and pacification of Balkans, to divide Montenegro from Serbia, play with Albanians against Srebs...
Well, if Trentino was given to Italy, maybe they would, at least until after the war, forget about Trieste and Istria and Dalmatia...

As said earlier, unfortunaly reason and logic are not in great supply when someone talk of the relations between Italy and A-H.
During OTL A-H think at least two times to invade Italy (during the Messina Earthquake and the Italo-Turkish war), was very uncooperative during the was against OE and there were a lot of tension during the garrison of Albania, after annexing Bosnia A-H adamatly forget to give the compensation that Italy was entitled and don't neither bother to tell her that Serbia will be soon attacked, and during the negotiang for the neutrality it was not very keen to give any concession to Italy (basically it was needed a German direct intervent and a Russian offensive to concede some strips of land) and FF was rabidly anti-italian and very favorable to take back the lost territories.
Italy from her side signed a secret treaty with France who basically annulled the alliance with the Central Powers and if FF was not assassinated in Saraievo she will probably officially abbandoned at the next renewal.
So even if abc123 proposal are really reasonable and logical and of mutual beneficial to both country, i still see the need of Giolitti (was pragmatic enough to take in serious consideration a proposal like that) and an intervention of the German government (to convince Vienna to make the deal and to convince Italy that the treaty will be uphold) to close the deal
 
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