WWI -- alt endings

Where would be the best place in time for the CP to win WWI, "best" meaning with least likelihood of revanche downstream: if the Germans were to win a conclusive victory, nullify all chances of French angst leading to a new war (as did the Franco-Prussian War), leave the Russians so lean as to be unable to contemplate war on any European front, astound their own allies into perpetual cooperation (Italy included?), and most of all leave the British glad to be out or glad never to have gotten in, where would that time be?
I don't think a victory on the Marne would do. Perhaps if the Germans pulled back all but a skeleton crew from the western front and bled the allies dry fighting for stale inches of non-German ground while attacking ferociously on the eastern front the CP might have won by destroying the weakest link. Russia would thereafter retreat upon herself while in the west Britain and France would be dubious allies of necessity, perhaps willing to concede the fight if Germany withdrew to her own borders by mid-1915.
But what are your thoughts?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Italy entering the war was heavily influence by the loss of the fortress cities of Lviv of Pvov. Pvov was the key on which makes it look like the Austrians are collapsing, so you need a POD before March 1915 on the eastern front. Wiking's Conrad turns east is a good example of this type of ATL. Western Front POD don't really keep Italy out of the war, IMO. You could also write a Russia messes up mobilization type ATL. The Tsar is a wonderful opportunity for bad decisions. Germany is hard to do when running the France first plan. I have played with some gimmicky ideas to achieve Germany still going much as OTL in the west and slowing down the Russian mobilization. If you think in terms of modern special forces and interdiction thinking, you could use small amount of resources to mess up the Russian rail system, but I have found no indication anyone in power thought this way before WW1. Little things like using commando to destroy bridges or long range calvary attacks by very small units or using preposition spies.

IMO it is exceptionally hard to write and ATL where the war ends before 1916 and difficult to write one ending before 1917. In 1917, it a lot of POD's open up. Russia is too deep to knock out of the war in 1915, it really takes multiple POD. The same for France in 1915.

IOTL, Germany had to cancel the eastern offensive in 1915 due to strong French/UK attacks. Even if this is not true, they were not on pace to knock Russia out in 1915 anyway. Just to go through some POD and why they don't work well.

1) France does much worse in 1914. Lets say they lose an army to Germany somehow. If you don't have a second POD by March 1915 for the east, Germany still has to turn to Russia in the Mayish timeframe. War drags on into 1916.

2) You have POD where A-H is not a fiasco in the first 6 months of the war. Falkenhayn will continue to pound France longer, but I think Germany is too weak to Finish off France fast. Germany went 7/8th against France in the opening months. Later in the war it will not be over 6/8ths, and we have the BEF in force in France. If pushed hard, the UK will divert forces from Gallipoli to France. Any threat to Calais will be taken most seriously compared to almost any other threat to the UK.

As to avoiding future wars, I go long war with decisive German victory. You want enough time for Russia to fall into Chaos, so winning in late 1917 is good. A longer war will also tend to make Germany be more vindictive in the peace assuming you don't go too late and end up with a weak Germany with A-H collapsing. If Germany takes the remainder of France's industrial areas and Russia is weakened (Think loses Poland and Baltics), the next war may be much shorter. So you need a subtle POD that give the German a big boost and loosens the blockade(Italy stays out, USA breaks RN blockade but does not go to war), but not enough to end the war quickly (UK takes 6 months to decide to enter the war. So types of POD where I can see you writing the ATL without going well before the war.

1) Italy stays out which normally involves A-H doing much better in Galicia. I used a more unusual POD where the UK loses a major naval battle in the first week of the war, and I judged that Italy would not enter the war. You can do it will a series of other POD's, but they are subtle and don't jump to mind.

2) Any POD where Romania stays out of the war helps. The 1 million tons of cereal will be huge in helping keeping the food issues from collapsing/harming civilian morale. Brusilov offensive works well, but so could better diplomacy or other battlefield success. IMO, if Italy does not enter the war or A-H does much better in Galicia in 1914/15 will also likely keep Romania out of the war.

3) Loosening the blockade. Helps like above. USA apply pressure helps, but so does a neutral Italy or for that matter a neutral Greece or the UK having issues related to colonies or better German Naval performance. If you stretch the responsibilities of the RN, more stuff leaks through.

4) USA not entering war and no unsecured loans probably also works, but it may be too late to save A-H.

Or in short, you need a POD/PODs that give the CP another major win/wins and also improves the food situation.
 
I had one where revolutions broke out in the Balkans, and eventually the war dragged to a halt. It ended with status quo ante bellum.
 
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