missouribob
Banned
Warning: This will be a long one.
How long would it take for an ATL in which the Cuban Missile Crisis went hot to reach OTL's 2017 standard of living/technology?
I am using the targeting data from @Amerigo Vespucci's thread, the Cuban Missile War, for the United States:
Assume China and Europe have been heavily hit. The Soviet Union no longer exists.
Other variables to consider.
1. Nuclear Winter – A 100 bomb atomic war with warheads the size of Little Boy used today would produce a nuclear winter strong enough to kill a billion people. WW3 in 1962 would see thousands of thermonuclear/hydrogen devices used. Any surviving nation like the United States would need to survive a dramatic reduction in food production. @Hnau put it better than me over a year ago:
2. Plutonium poisoning - Edit - I have concluded that there have never been enough nuclear weapons on our planet to cause the extinction of our species via plutonium poisoning. For more info go to this link: https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ciencia/ciencia_nuclearweapons.htm
3. Biological weapons - Another wildcard is the state of the American and Soviet biological weapons programs. There could be the chance of accidental (or in the case of the Soviets) intentional release. By 1962 the Soviets had several biological warfare facilities and had a smallpox factory from post-WW2. 1962 was before the Biopreparat program though. For the purposes of this thread let us assume that the Soviets don't release their weapons and that any that are unintentionally released would remain locally contained.
With those perimeters set let's discuss. How long would it take such a world to recover from WW3? What would be the social, economic and political effects of such a conflict? Specifically how would the United States develop? Would race relations ever reach OTL? Would the sexual revolution still occur? Would this reconstructing United States place a greater focus on Civil Defense? What would become of the United States government? Officials? Bureaucracy? What would be the new Capital? How would the state and local governments fit in all this? I've placed some reference threads below that have also touched on this subject.
@Blue Max had a great idea a few years back about how urban planning and civil defense might evolve in such a post war world...
@Emperor Norton I also had some thoughts on this.
Reference threads:
Cuban Missile War Timeline - https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-cuban-missile-war-timeline.65071/
Voices of Doomsday, Cuban Missile War Offshoot - https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/voices-of-doomsday.385922/
Great Nuclear War, Wiki and fandom of the Cuban Missile War Timeline - http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Great_Nuclear_War
Thread on list of probable targets - https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-war-which-large-cities-would-survive.385593/
Study on Civil Defense strategies - http://atomic-skies.blogspot.de/2013/09/rock-to-hide-me.html
Thread on the construction of underground cities - https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-hobbitons-instead-of-suburbs.319853/
Thread that imagines what such a world would look like with more Civil Defense before hand - https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/dbwi-challenge-prevent-world-war-iii.121320/
How long would it take for an ATL in which the Cuban Missile Crisis went hot to reach OTL's 2017 standard of living/technology?
I am using the targeting data from @Amerigo Vespucci's thread, the Cuban Missile War, for the United States:
• Washington, D.C. (3 missiles)
This is the most critical target in the United States, beyond even Cheyenne Mountain. It’s the peacetime center of the government, and the immense blow to American pride and prestige, as well as the confusion and chaos its destruction will create is immense, and will not be overlooked. One missile for the Pentagon, Capitol Hill, and the White House. It’s overkill, but the target is of great enough importance that given the inaccuracy of the Soviet missiles, three will be needed to ensure completion. End result: Lake Washington.
• Cheyenne Mountain, Colorado (2 missiles)
Wartime headquarters of NORAD, this bunker is entombed within the mountain. While it’s not likely to be destroyed, given the inaccuracy of the weapons used against it, it will likely be knocked off line by detonations close by that will rupture cables and communications, disconnecting it for some time from the defense of North America. Suspended within the mountain on enormous springs and shock absorbers, the bunker will be tossed around, and injuries and possible deaths will result. Imagine being inside an earthquake, underground. Even ground-bursting weapons – these will likely not detonate until they hit the ground, unlike weapons used against soft targets, which explode at 5,000-10,000 feet to ensure maximum destruction – should not destroy the base, as a direct hit is not likely. End result: Broken bones for those inside, massive wildfires, NORAD HQ knocked offline for several hours to several weeks.
• Offut AFB, Omaha, Nebraska (2 missiles)
This is the headquarters of the Strategic Air Command, and where Gen. Curtis LeMay, CINC-SAC, will be located during the fighting. The base and city nearby will be utterly destroyed, and the bunker below has a good chance of being knocked out as well, but little is known about it, due to the fact that it is an active command, not retired like Cheyenne Mountain. End result: Omaha and Offut destroyed, SAC HQ knocked offline for several hours to several weeks.
• Syracuse, New York
One of the three centers for the SAGE (Semi Automatic Ground Environment) system, the SAGE system is what makes NORAD work. State-of-the-art computer systems, tied in to the three early-warning radar lines and interceptor bases across Canada, as well as links to ships at sea and aircraft in the air, enable the SAGE system to vector individual fighters to individual bombers as they are detected in flight. This is a massively complicated system of coordination, roughly similar to the British sector stations during the Blitz, but far more advanced. Syracuse’s SAGE Combat Center is located above-ground, in a giant facility with a four-story video screen and half an acre of computers. End result: Syracuse destroyed, Syracuse SAGE Combat Center offline.
• North Bay, Ontario
This is the third of the three (the first being Cheyenne Mountain) main SAGE Combat Centers in North America. Located 700 feet underground, it can survive a nearby hit. However, due to the fragility of computers at the time, and the need to have near-instantaneous communication with fighter bases and radar stations across Canada, even a near-miss will be disastrous. With all three main SAGE Combat Centers destroyed or knocked off line, the backup BUIC (Back Up Interceptor Control) units will take over, but at a reduced rate of effectiveness. End result: North Bay destroyed, SAGE center crippled.
• Groton/New London, Connecticut
Groton is the headquarters of the United States’ submarine fleet, and is of critical importance in that it is a soft target that houses nuclear weapons – ballistic missile submarines. While all of these will be at sea, the destruction of the Groton/New London submarine base will destroy a large number of warheads waiting to be transferred onto submarines, will destroy the large submarine construction facility located there, the training facility located there, and possibly any submarines unable to sail away, due to drydocking or other problems. End result: New London and Groton destroyed, several submarines sunk, submarine yards destroyed, SSBN (Strategic Submarine, Ballistic, Nuclear) reloading capability reduced.
• Charleston, South Carolina
In addition to being the largest city in the state of South Carolina, Charleston was at the time home to the Charleston Navy Yard, one of the largest ports of the United States Navy, and a major home port for several ballistic missile submarines. Though all are at sea at this point in the hostilities, the destruction of Charleston will greatly reduce the effectiveness of the Atlantic Fleet and hurt the resupply efforts of any ballistic missile submarines that survive their initial attacks. In addition, Charleston has great historical value and a medium-sized shipbuilding industry. End result: Charleston destroyed, economy of South Carolina crippled, loss of Charleston Naval Base, several ships sunk.
• Norfolk, Virginia (2 missiles)
Norfolk is the largest American naval base on the East Coast. It is the home port to the vast majority of the United States’ Atlantic Fleet, and is the site of a very large shipbuilding industry located in Norfolk and nearby Newport News. At least one aircraft carrier will be in drydock at the time, and a large stockpile of naval nuclear weapons is at the base. In addition, Naval Air Station Oceana is close by, as is the Marine Amphibious base at Little Creek, Langley Air Force Base, and Yorktown Weapons Depot. End result: With one detonation on the north side of Hampton Roads, and another on the south side, both Newport News and Norfolk will be completely obliterated, as will all the naval, marine, and Air Force bases in the area. NAS Oceana, furthest to the east, will suffer heavy damage, but may not be totally destroyed, due to its distance from Norfolk. Virginia Beach will suffer light damage.
• San Diego, California
San Diego is one of the largest cities in California, and is also the home of one of the largest naval bases on the West Coast. It is the home to Miramar, training facility for pilots of the US Marine Corps, and Coronado is home to one of the two training facilities of the US Navy Seals. In addition, North Island Naval Air Station has a large contingent of aircraft. End result: A blast over the harbor will obliterate Coronado, North Island, and anything in port, as well as damaging Mischer Field at Miramar and destroying the city. Nearby Camp Pendleton is out of the blast zone, but may suffer broken windows, depending on atmospheric conditions at the time of the blast.
• Tucson, Arizona
In 1962, Tucson was still a small town, but also home to Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, site of the Air Force’s “boneyard,” a storage facility for unused aircraft and a major repair facility. In addition, Tucson was also home to the 12th Strategic Aerospace Division, a combined force of missiles and bombers. Today, it’s home of the only preserved Titan Missile silo. End result: Tucson, Davis-Monthan completely destroyed. Surrounding missile silos remain intact, however, as these are scattered in the hills south of the town.
• Barksdale AFB, Bossier City, Louisiana
Bossier City is located in northwestern Louisiana, near the Texas and Arkansas borders. A suburb of Shreveport, Louisiana, it is also home to the Louisiana Army Ammunition plant. Barksdale AFB in 1962 is home to the headquarters of the Second Air Force, a major component of SAC. End result: Barksdale AFB destroyed, Shreveport in flames, 75% of the city leveled instantly, heavy primary damage to the western portions of the Louisiana Army Ammunition plant. Secondary explosions may further damage or destroy the plant.
• Ellsworth AFB, Rapid City, South Dakota
Home to the 821st Air Division, Ellsworth is today home to the B-1 bomber. In 1962, it was a major B-52 bomber base, and the Air Division included a large missile component as well. End result: Ellsworth AFB and Rapid City destroyed, missile silos intact, as these are hardened targets and are far from the base.
• Grand Forks AFB, Grand Forks, North Dakota
Home to the 319th Bomb Wing, 449th Bombardment Group, and 4133rd Strategic Wing in 1962, Grand Forks is a major bomber base. End result: Grand Forks AFB destroyed, broken windows and light damage in the town itself.
• Forbes AFB, Topeka, Kansas
Home to the 21st Air Division, Forbes AFB controls a large number of ICBMs as well as a substantial number of bombers. Topeka is also the capital of the state of Kansas, and thus center to a state government. End result: Forbes AFB destroyed, massive damage to the City of Topeka, but no damage to the missile fields to the west of the city, or to the town of Lawrence to the east.
• Fairchild AFB, Spokane, Washington
In 1962, Fairchild was the home of the 18th Strategic Aerospace Division, an umbrella organization that combined the B-52 bombers and KC-135 Stratotankers of the 92nd Bomb Wing with squadrons of Atlas ICBMs located nearby. Today, Fairchild helps Washington State achieve the distinction of having more nuclear weapons than four countries combined, thanks to the location of a nuclear reserve depot on the base. End result: Fairchild AFB destroyed, possible damage to unstable Atlas missiles, (the missiles must be kept pressurized at all times in order to provide support for the missile, or destruction of the missile will result – this caused problems when a dropped tool could rupture a fuel line and cause an explosion, due to the weak fuel tanks and lines.) Spokane west of the river destroyed, damage to the city’s eastern portion.
• Lockbourne AFB, Columbus, Ohio
Home to the 801st Air Division, Columbus is also the capital of the state of Ohio, and a large city in its own right. End result: Lockbourne AFB destroyed, southern half of Columbus in flames. Central and northern portions of the city damaged.
• New York City, New York
You shouldn’t need to ask why New York would be hit. Ideally, due to its size, it would be hit by several nuclear weapons, but I imagine that only one missile would be targeted there, simply because of its proximity to the Canadian border and thus availability to bomber attack. For the sake of argument, I’ll target the missile at the Brooklyn Navy Yard, which in 1962 was still very much in operation. End result: Brooklyn, lower Manhattan destroyed, 50% of the city in flames, massive panic, damage to eastern portions of Staten Island and New Jersey. Broken windows as far north as Yonkers. Newark damaged, Statue of Liberty knocked over, Empire State Building and Chrysler Building obliterated.
• Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, in addition to being one of the most populous cities in the United States, also has great historical meaning and is home to the Philadelphia Naval Yard, again one of the largest naval bases on the East Coast of the United States in 1962. End result: Philadelphia virtually destroyed. Broken windows as far as the Delaware border, with fires raging unchecked for miles.
• Colorado Springs, Colorado
Colorado Springs is the peacetime home of NORAD, one of the major centers of the US Air Force, and is home to the US Air Force Academy. In 1962, Ent Air Force Base would likely be the primary target, as it is the center of peacetime Air Force activities. The northern portions of Fort Carson also adjoin Colorado Springs. Today, the Air Force’s Space Command is located in Colorado Springs, as is the current primary base of NORAD. End result: City of Colorado Springs destroyed, Air Force academy destroyed, Ent Air Force Base destroyed, northern portions of Fort Carson destroyed, but most portions escape damage, including the training ranges.
• Detroit, Michigan
In 1962, the American automobile industry had not yet been overtaken by foreign imports, and so Detroit was as crucial to America’s economy as any other city in the country. Nearly 90 percent of the automobiles in the United States were American-built, providing jobs for millions of people, not just in Detroit, but also in factories across the country. End result: Downtown Detroit and neighboring Windsor are destroyed. Heavy damage as far as Dearborn Heights. Dozens of factories destroyed. Production outside Detroit suffers for lack of Detroit-built parts, fueling national economic depression.
• San Francisco, California
This one isn’t so much San Francisco as it is Alameda and Oakland, but a hit on either of those two places will affect San Francisco as well. Alameda is home of the third-largest naval base on the West Coast. In addition, the Oakland Army Base and Alameda Naval Air Station are also within range of a single hit. End result: A hit on Alameda will vaporize the Oakland Army Base, Treasure Island Naval Station, Alameda supply depot, NAS Alameda, and most of downtown Alameda. The Oakland Bay Bridge will be completely destroyed, and Oakland itself will suffer major damage, as will the eastern shore of San Francisco, including the Naval Station. Damage will extend across the city. The Golden Gate Bridge will suffer moderate to light damage, but should survive with scorching. Berekley will be destroyed.
Those are the targets I feel most likely to be hit in a 26-ICBM attack. They provide a mix of Air Force and Navy targets, as well as civilian targets. Targets have been chosen to maximize the number of American nuclear weapons destroyed, as would likely be the case in a real Soviet attack. Some notable cities and targets not on the list:
• Bangor, Washington – Not a sub base until the advent of Trident submarines.
• Kings Bay, Georgia – See above.
• Boston, Mass. – Likely bomber target.
• Ottawa, Canada – Likely bomber target.
• Seattle, Washington – Likely bomber target
• Los Angeles, California – Not as big a city in 1962, lacks major military bases.
• Honolulu, Hawaii – Likely submarine target
• Chicago, Ill. – Likely bomber target
• Minot, North Dakota – Likely bomber target
• Wright-Patterson AFB – Testing facility, no combat aircraft present
• Cape Canaveral – Testing facility, no military missiles present
Assume China and Europe have been heavily hit. The Soviet Union no longer exists.
Other variables to consider.
1. Nuclear Winter – A 100 bomb atomic war with warheads the size of Little Boy used today would produce a nuclear winter strong enough to kill a billion people. WW3 in 1962 would see thousands of thermonuclear/hydrogen devices used. Any surviving nation like the United States would need to survive a dramatic reduction in food production. @Hnau put it better than me over a year ago:
It seems to me that the climate models have moved consensus back to predicting nuclear winter would be an existential risk, either for our species or civilization. The smoke clouds would dissipate throughout the atmosphere, in two weeks even Argentinians would be looking up at a global smog effect. You'd be looking at a decade of cold summers and colder winters, and the ozone layer would be depleted, increasing ultraviolet radiation.
http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010.pdf
Considering higher rates of undernourishment in the 1960s, the lower level of infrastructural development in the Third World, and the unavailability of agricultural technologies that could make crash programs feasible, I think half of the world's population surviving to 1975 would be a best-case scenario. Keeping even more than a billion humans by that would be an impressive achievement for the species. Even a regional nuclear war with only 100 Hiroshima-size explosions today would likely cause a billion deaths, but if a wider-scale exchange happens in the 1960s with hydrogen bombs... that's the kind of event that could knock out industrial civilization as we know it.
http://www.psr.org/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-famine-report.pdf
2. Plutonium poisoning - Edit - I have concluded that there have never been enough nuclear weapons on our planet to cause the extinction of our species via plutonium poisoning. For more info go to this link: https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ciencia/ciencia_nuclearweapons.htm
3. Biological weapons - Another wildcard is the state of the American and Soviet biological weapons programs. There could be the chance of accidental (or in the case of the Soviets) intentional release. By 1962 the Soviets had several biological warfare facilities and had a smallpox factory from post-WW2. 1962 was before the Biopreparat program though. For the purposes of this thread let us assume that the Soviets don't release their weapons and that any that are unintentionally released would remain locally contained.
With those perimeters set let's discuss. How long would it take such a world to recover from WW3? What would be the social, economic and political effects of such a conflict? Specifically how would the United States develop? Would race relations ever reach OTL? Would the sexual revolution still occur? Would this reconstructing United States place a greater focus on Civil Defense? What would become of the United States government? Officials? Bureaucracy? What would be the new Capital? How would the state and local governments fit in all this? I've placed some reference threads below that have also touched on this subject.
@Blue Max had a great idea a few years back about how urban planning and civil defense might evolve in such a post war world...
I've thought that a Hobbiton scenario might well be the long run result in the aftermath of a nuclear war. It would be the best of a bunch of bad choices--cities and specialization is non-negotiable to sustain a modern economy, but cities are extremely vulnerable to nuclear attack.
However long it takes to rebuild/repopulate from the aftermath, people will be confronted with the question of how to build heavy industry without facing obvious disaster in the face of nuclear war?
And there really aren't any good answers to this problem. If a nation or the entire world has been devastated by nuclear war, suddenly cities became the killing fields. Blast, Burn, Radiation, Starvation, Strife, Disease.
Building cities underground doesn't quite work. They need food, water, and logistical supply. They could be more robust against attack, be partially self-sufficient, and some locations might even be able to supply their own power, water and perhaps basic things like steel and glass.
@Emperor Norton I also had some thoughts on this.
There are a few ways I can see the "hobbiton". One is where it is a city, just underground; so there are buildings and streets, its just that instead of sky the buildings are to the top of whatever interior was carved out, and likely connected to the above ground buildings. Another is where it'd be like the vault concept from Fallout, albeit with people going outside so long as there is not actually an atomic war. It could also be borderline a shopping mall configuration.
I think ideally it'd be something like this.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_City,_Montreal
Reference threads:
Cuban Missile War Timeline - https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-cuban-missile-war-timeline.65071/
Voices of Doomsday, Cuban Missile War Offshoot - https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/voices-of-doomsday.385922/
Great Nuclear War, Wiki and fandom of the Cuban Missile War Timeline - http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Great_Nuclear_War
Thread on list of probable targets - https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-war-which-large-cities-would-survive.385593/
Study on Civil Defense strategies - http://atomic-skies.blogspot.de/2013/09/rock-to-hide-me.html
Thread on the construction of underground cities - https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-hobbitons-instead-of-suburbs.319853/
Thread that imagines what such a world would look like with more Civil Defense before hand - https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/dbwi-challenge-prevent-world-war-iii.121320/
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