No Lend-Lease is a requirement to keep the USA entirely out of the war. Too, Cash and Carry also has to be avoided. OTL showed the USSR was able to keep Germany from winning the war, and even able to ultimately prevail in an MAD-style attrition sequence of battles, but the logistics factor is the big limitation that will keep Red Europe from happening. Now, if the USA manages the miracle of Lend-Lease without any war with the Germans, then yes, Red Europe is in all likelihood very probable, but in that case the USA's still in the war.
If there is a Lend-Lease, I doubt the US is going to be thrilled if the Soviets use it to set up an occupation of Western Europe. Whether this leads to direct intervention or simply more tensions I can't say. But without actually entering the war the US will not be committing nearly as much into the Manhattan Project, so it's unlikely to have a bomb by the end of the conflict. The result is that the Cold War wouldn't necessarily stay cold for long.