WW2 with no independent Poland

How would the lack of Poland affect WW2?

Can the establishment of Poland during or after WW1 even be prevented?

If Germany and the USSR had shared a border, would it have affected the Munich Treaty.
Could it have prevented WW2, leading only to a Western or Eastern war?
 
While in itself interesting, this question is very difficult to answer. Without independent Poland some dynamics governing relations between major powers are removed, while different ones are introduced.

Witho no Poland, a great deal of anymosity towards the Versailles is removed. The question is where is the Soviet - German border? Brest-Litovsk, further East or further West? Wherever it is, without Poland, the only area of cooperation between the Nazis and the Communists is economy and possibly Baltic states. M-R pact might concern them, but it would be weaker and the temptation for the Soviet would be much less.

Germany will still need to control the entirety of Southeastern Europe or have it aligned closely before engaging the Soviet Union. Any of these can cause the events to unfold in a way similar to OTL. Western Allies would certainly be wary of the German becoming to strong and gobbling up Southern and Southeastern Europe.

Most likely, however would be that situation like this leads to war in the East prior to anything in the West.
 
How would the lack of Poland affect WW2?

Can the establishment of Poland during or after WW1 even be prevented?

If Germany and the USSR had shared a border, would it have affected the Munich Treaty.
Could it have prevented WW2, leading only to a Western or Eastern war?

The only ways for Poland to not exist after WW1 are:

1) The Soviets annex Poland in the Polish-Soviet War.

2) Imperial Russia survives the war.

3)The German Empire wins in 1914 and takes a minimal amount of land from Russia.
 

Deleted member 1487

If the Soviets take Poland in 1920 then Germany's is pretty much going to get the majority of the ToV removed and probably get the go ahead to reoccupy their 1914 Eastern border. The Soviets don't have much ability to move beyond their capture of Warsaw in 1920, so by 1921 when they try to spread revolution to Germany the German army would have time to prepare, plus lots of WW1 equipment left over not yet destroyed and millions of vets to use if needed. That alters the entire context of WW2 if it were to happen, as Germany would either not be the aggressor, would invade the USSR, or would end up being part an anti-Soviet coalition attacking the USSR. France would be mightily pissed about all of this as reparations and demilitarization is off the table, but there is nothing they can do. A Soviet Union on Germany's Eastern border occupying Poland over the Vistula is going to be quite scary to everyone, especially given the recent communist uprisings in Germany.
 
If the Soviets take Poland in 1920 then Germany's is pretty much going to get the majority of the ToV removed and probably get the go ahead to reoccupy their 1914 Eastern border. The Soviets don't have much ability to move beyond their capture of Warsaw in 1920, so by 1921 when they try to spread revolution to Germany the German army would have time to prepare, plus lots of WW1 equipment left over not yet destroyed and millions of vets to use if needed. That alters the entire context of WW2 if it were to happen, as Germany would either not be the aggressor, would invade the USSR, or would end up being part an anti-Soviet coalition attacking the USSR. France would be mightily pissed about all of this as reparations and demilitarization is off the table, but there is nothing they can do. A Soviet Union on Germany's Eastern border occupying Poland over the Vistula is going to be quite scary to everyone, especially given the recent communist uprisings in Germany.

I've never heard of that being an outcome of the Soviet-Polish war. Is there a source for the WAllies letting Germany off the hook to smash the Soviets?
 

Deleted member 1487

I've never heard of that being an outcome of the Soviet-Polish war. Is there a source for the WAllies letting Germany off the hook to smash the Soviets?
No, because Poland wasn't seriously threatened by collapse, but had Warsaw fallen and with Germany being in turmoil because of the communist uprising and the Soviets coming to spread the revolution, the Allies would have no choice if they didn't want a communist Germany; that would be an even bigger nightmare than letting Weimar not disarm.
 
IF the Russian Communists ( They were not Soviets yet, ) conquered Poland in 1920, then the German invasion of the USSR is the first campaign of WWII in Europe. The British and French did not have treaty committing them to defend the Soviets, so they don't go to war in 1939. They do however prepare much better and are better able to counter German aggression when it comes.
 
IF the Russian Communists ( They were not Soviets yet, ) conquered Poland in 1920, then the German invasion of the USSR is the first campaign of WWII in Europe. The British and French did not have treaty committing them to defend the Soviets, so they don't go to war in 1939. They do however prepare much better and are better able to counter German aggression when it comes.

I would think the WAllies would give Germany a reward for stomping the Soviets.
 

Deleted member 1487

I remember hearing something if germany borders return to 1914 in the east ,France would take the Saarland
Yeah, you'd need a source for that, I highly doubt France would get much support for permanent annexation and their debt/currency issues made them super vulnerable to being leveraged, which is who the British/US got them out of the Rheinland after 1923.
 
How would the lack of Poland affect WW2?
If Germany and the USSR had shared a border, would it have affected the Munich Treaty.
Could it have prevented WW2, leading only to a Western or Eastern war?

It depends on how aggressive the new USSR is in spreading the revolution abroad and how willing to just instigate uprisings, support uprisings or flat out invade. But it's pretty sure that with an unruly Marxist-Leninist/Stalinist power on Germany's doorstep we'll just skip WWII and go from WWI straight to the Cold War, Possibly with an East and West Poland taking the place of East and West Germany. And without mutual assured nuclear destruction this cold war may become hot a lot easier.
 
Yeah, you'd need a source for that, I highly doubt France would get much support for permanent annexation and their debt/currency issues made them super vulnerable to being leveraged, which is who the British/US got them out of the Rheinland after 1923.

I'm not sure if it was plan or not but would make sense since germany has regain a lot of pre war territory
 

Deleted member 1487

I'm not sure if it was plan or not but would make sense since germany has regain a lot of pre war territory
From the French perspective, but not the rest of the world, so it probably wasn't going to come off.
 
the w-allies need german reparations from the TOV to not collapse themselves, so nope, no unleashing germany in 1920.

if anything germany itself could pull an early "rapallo" with the soviet union and prematurely end their isolation.
 

Deleted member 1487

the w-allies need german reparations from the TOV to not collapse themselves, so nope, no unleashing germany in 1920.

if anything germany itself could pull an early "rapallo" with the soviet union and prematurely end their isolation.
Well, considering they mostly didn't get reparations after 1921 or really until US loans came in in 1925 and they didn't collapse, they could do without them. So they could deal with discomfort in 1920 and on or deal with the USSR conquering Germany or at least part of it and deal with a lot of pain from having to fight another major war to prevent the victory of Communism in Europe. So its not that much of a choice; the situation after the Soviet problem had been resolved by Germany in the mid-1920s could see a more mild version of reparations paid, but I honestly think that given the situation the US would defer or cancel war debts to help the situation or step in to help finance things like IOTL to avoid a Soviet victory and keep Germany strong enough financially to be the bulwark in Europe against the spread of communism.
 
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