WW2 with Militarist-Industrial Germany

Assuming no Fell Gelb, and the war is more of a grinding artillery duel with 1940s tech (which IIRC is what even the Germans were expecting) , is a German victory even likely?

Probably not, if you remove Blitzkrieg and everyone's playing like it's WWI but with nastier guns the British and the French will pound the Nazis to pieces. They had better guns and better tanks not to mention you have the big ugly beast called the Maginot Line which will, if you're playing WWI tactics, give the Germans an enormous headache. The Wehrmacht would be lucky to get as far as the Marne, nevermind taking France out of the war.
 
Assume that Germany in WW2 is not ruled by Nazi's per say (remove any you feel fits the part) but, instead ruled by a collection of some authoritarian industrialists, militarists, generals and so on. Assume that they are really the best, not the most ruthless that germany can offer as they were in OTL.

And POD between 1933 and 1939. I prefer 1933 or so with best possible Direction you can think of for a post-peace europe. I doubt holding onto something like France would be possibly no matter who lead Germany. But WW1 + AL + Some Russia + Some colonies MIGHT be at the stretch of possible if exceptionally well lead Germany. Thoughts?

I would say "the next great war" so assume that Germany aims for a war in very late 30 very early 40 with the aim of "as much space as possible and stable europe after peace dominated by germany"

What you´re asking here is mutually exclusive. :)
- the best (sane, competent) wouldn´t go for "Lebensraum" in the East. They´d go for the 1914 border (perhaps plus Austria and the Sudetenland and minus Alsace-Lorraine and parts of Posen?) plus an influence sphere in Eastern Europe. As in countries depending on Germany (economically and militarily).
(Essentially what the UK was willing to grant Hitler in our TL in the 1930s.)
- They´d never aim to start a war in the late 1930s, very early 1940s because at least the industrialists would know that such a rapid re-armament would cripple the German economy. Likewise the generals would opt for a slower, more balanced approach.

Essentially you´d look at something like this (lots of ideas grabbed from several already existing TLs):

Before 1932 (but during the Great Depression):
A group of concerned industrialists, conservative politicians and generals (retired and serving in the Reichswehr) had several secret meetings. All of them are concerned about the political and economical instability of the Weimar Republic. Especially the rise of extremist parties like the Communists and the Nazis. (Disliking the Communists is obvious but quite a lot of conservatives, politicians and generals alike, and industrialists didn´t like the Nazis either in our TL.).
So they decide to create plans to "rescue" Germany. As part of the plans, the Reichswehr generals agree to remove any Nazi sympathizers in the Reichswehr. The industrialists agree to pressure business partners not to donate to the NSDAP. (According to the Goebbels diaries the NSDAP in our TL was practically bankrupt in late 1932. If Hitler hadn´t become Chancellor in January 1933 the party quite likely would have imploded for lack of funds.)

Late 1932:
Two Reichstag elections inside a year. While the NSDAP lost more than 4%, together the NSDAP (33.1%) and the communist KPD (16.9%) could block anything. And given the treatment of von Papen (acting Chancellor relying on Presidential emergency orders) by Goering (elected as Reichstag President with the votes of the NSDAP and Center party= Speaker of the House?) something had to be done.

POD: In our TL President (and former Field Marshall) Hindenburg was pressured to nominate Hitler as the new Chancellor. (Hindenburg didn´t like Hitler - that Bohemian Corporal). With the conservatives hoping they could restrain him. In this TL the group of "concerned German citizens" mentioned above convince Hindenburg that something has to be done to save Germany. Having some generals in the group helps. Hindenburg agrees that the acting (or a new acting?) Chancellor (member of the group) needs more power.

Early 1933:
Both the (communist) KPD and NSDAP are declared illegal. The Reichswehr (plus former Freikorps members and "Stahlhelm" - conservative veteran soldiers association) is ordered to support the police here.
(Not sure what they would do with the SPD and the "Reichsbanner" here?).
Having a bankrupt NSDAP certainly helps here.

Late 1933 / early 1934:
The situation is quiet for now. It´s now up for the "Council for the Salvation of Germany" to produce results (fast). :D
Ideas for stimulating the economy (some sort of Keynesism already existed in our TL Germany). So I assume they would use it to lower unemployment and gain some popularity.
Envoys are sent to France and the UK to explain their actions.

Going forward:
- They still need to re-negotiate reparations.
- Some sort of understanding between the UK and Germany in the 1930s as in our TL. And sane and competent German leaders would keep their word.
- Re-armament (at a slower pace). Army, navy and air force.
(- maybe a return to a constitutional monarchy?)
- Rhineland, Saar region, Austria might still happen in the 1930s.
- Sudetenland (and Memel region) might happen in the early 1940s.
- The Polish corridor - if it happens at all - sometime in the early to mid 1940s.
(By that time the ideas of Guderian might have won enough converts so that Panzer divisions might be possible. On the other hand the German air force would be much more balanced. Including some 4-engine long range bombers but less close air support?

After that:
- If Mussolini is an idiot, Germany will grab Southern Tirol.
- With the threat of Stalin in the East, Germany will be pretty influential in Scandinavia, the Baltic states and the Balkans. Economically Germany probably will dominate Central and Eastern Europe.

Colonies might be nice but I don´t see which ones might be returned? Are any of them - the ones that might be returned - either worth the costs or defensible?
 
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