WW2 WI:Romanian troops stop at the Dniester?

One of the great what if's? of Romanian history, is what would happen if Antonescu orders the troops to advance only up the former borders?

That would mean no siege of Odessa, no Romanian administration of the territory between the Dniester and the Bug, no Romanian troops at Stalingrad, etc.

What would the wider effects be?
 
One of the great what if's? of Romanian history, is what would happen if Antonescu orders the troops to advance only up the former borders?

That would mean no siege of Odessa, no Romanian administration of the territory between the Dniester and the Bug, no Romanian troops at Stalingrad, etc.

What would the wider effects be?
Not knowing the details of Romania's entry into the war, I'm merely speculating here. Regardless of the immediate consequences to Romania (Hitler is ticked off but that's nothing new), this development would have major knock-on effects with Barbarossa as a whole. if the Romanians are missing, they will have to be replaced by even more Germans, Italians, and Hungarians (if any are even available). I suspect that the initial invasion won't get as far as OTL.
 

Zagan

Donor
Our fate would be exactly as horrible as in OTL. Soviet occupation, communization, millions in jail and / or killed, etc.

Czechoslovakia and Poland were allied countries and even they were turned into Communist satellites. Short of a total Soviet collapse, there was no way Romania could have escaped the horrors of Soviet domination.
 
Our fate would be exactly as horrible as in OTL. Soviet occupation, communization, millions in jail and / or killed, etc.

Czechoslovakia and Poland were allied countries and even they were turned into Communist satellites. Short of a total Soviet collapse, there was no way Romania could have escaped the horrors of Soviet domination.

Well, communism was horrible, but millions in prison may be a slight exaggeration:

wiki said:
At the time, an estimated 1 million Romanians were imprisoned in dire conditions or engaged in often deadly slave labor, digging out the Danube – Black Sea Canal.[20]

That said, the exact status of Romania depends heavily on how the war in the east goes and how Germany is defeated. If the Soviet Union is still stuck east of the Dnepr whilst Germany collapses from some sort of coup + Allied invasion (swear I read a TL about something like that recently), we may still come out on top.

Another option is something akin to the excellent "Happy and Glorious", where an Allied-Soviet war breaks out in early '47, and the Americans nuke their way to victory.
 
Okay, I'll bite.

The first major operation the Romanian forces had a hand in after crossing the Dniester was Uman, where 100.000 Soviets were killed or captured. Romanian divisions secured the flanks of the Hungarian corps that was one of the pincers, and the helped clear out the pocket. Without them, some of those Soviets escape, and taking out the rest takes longer. Potential impact down the line at Kiev.

Next we have the Siege of Odessa. Here there is suddenly no one available to assault the city, hence why I think the Germans will have to resign themselves to simply screening it with whatever they can find that's uncommitted elsewhere - Slovaks, crappy Hungarian infantry divisions, Italians, all interspersed with the odd German battalion here and there. They will not have the numbers nor the equipment to assault the city, meaning it will likely hold out far longer than anyone would otherwise expect, even more so since the Romanian Navy and Air Force won't be around to limit resupply attempts by sea. Without the losses the defenders suffered OTL from the continued attacks, it's doubtful STAVKA orders an evacuation anytime soon.

Next we have the battle of Kiev, where Romanian forces were vital in manning German flanks as they crossed the Dnepr. Without them, it will take more time to bring up other units to support the attack, and it may bog down the panzer groups longer than expected and/or require heavier fighting (and thus increased losses from combat and attrition). Taking into account a different Uman pocket (see above), and Guderian's panzers may not even be in a position to take part in Typhoon, or, if they do, they may not get as far, possibly even failing to properly clear the Vyazma pocket - and that's potentially hundreds of thousands of Soviet soldiers having a chance to break out.

Where things really get dicey for the Germans is further south though. Here, the Romanians were instrumental in holding the line whilst the assault on the Perekop Isthmus (to break into the Crimea) took place. Without them, there probably isn't any attack on Crimea at all in '41. On the flip side, von Runstedt might not stick his neck out all the way to Rostov come winter. Thus, any attack on Crimea is likely to come as a prelude to Case Blue in '42, athough by then the Soviets would have had many months in which to fortify that narrow strip of land, in which case Hitler might chose to ignore Crimea all together and just push east, leaving a screening force behind like at Odessa.

As to how Case Blue itself might go, i don't have the wildest clue. the losses suffered by the Soviets in their failed bid to rescue Sevastopol (170.000 men) are butterflied away, whilst the Axis has a lot less to work with. With what units they man those flanks I have absolutely no idea.
 
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