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It is often said that the strategic air campaign waged by the UK and US against Nazi Germany was a waste of resources.
It is also said that the campaign was a war crime (not by me).

So, what would have happened if the RAF and USAAF had not been devoted to strategic bombing?

POD
Strategic bombing did not appear during the war - to remove it we need an earlier POD. Douhet's book "The Command of the Air," HG Wells' "The Shape of Things to Come," Mitchell's experiments and the RAF's use of bombing to police Britain's Middle Eastern territories all had their parts to play. The Guernica raid and the attraction of strategic bombing as a way to ensure the independence of the RAF are also important.

I suspect multiple PODs would be required. The removal of Douhet, Mitchell and Trenchard might suffice. If the RAF never became independent and remained the RFC and RNAS, British air power could be focused on anti-shipping, medium bombers and close air support. If Guernica results in moral outrage, a government could cut funding for the strategic bombing force.


Now, assuming that the butterflies have been quiet, WW2 begins according to OTL. What would be the effects of this lack of a strategic bombing force?

The consequences of bombing on the German industry have been widely debated, but if the factories are not bombed flat, production will be higher, resulting in a more effective front-line force. The Ploesti oil fields will be safe.

Secondary consequences will include the damage to the railways, and the time and resources no longer required to rebuild/bombproof factories.

The forces required to defend the Reich against the bombers will be available to the fronts. By 1944, over 2,000 88mm guns were involved in the AA role in Germany - these could have been employed in the anti-tank role. The Luftwaffe's day fighters were nearly wiped out during the spring of 1944 when the US introduced long-range fighter cover.

No Tallboy or Grand Slam bombs - the aircraft to carry them won't exist. This won't change much, but these were the only weapons capable of hurting u-boats inside their pens. The Dambusters raid won't be possible.

When the atom bomb is thought up, the bombers to carry it will have to be designed from the ground up - OTL's experience of building such aircraft won't exist.


We can assume that the Allies will use the resources that in OTL were used for the bomber force on something else. I can think of the following options.

More medium bombers, along the lines of the US B-25, B-26, a British equivalent, and the Mosquito.

More close air support.

More aircraft will be available for convoy and antisub patrols. These may be OTL's flying boat designs, or may include long-range land-based air cover. This would help swing the Battle of the Atlantic to the Allies, but the lack of strategic bombing will allow higher production of U-boats.

With spare engine production, more landing craft may be built.

Without the demand on the Merlin engine, Britain may get the Cromwell tank earlier - but the Sherman was about as good.


Politically, the Western allies were able to point to the resources used in the bomber offensive when Stalin called for a second front. Without this, the Allies may have to launch the invasion of Europe earlier than OTL, probably in 1943.

Without the bomber offensive, they may have the troops needed, but won't have air superiority. Given the limits on assault shipping the landings may have to be in the Mediterranean (if the invasion of Italy happens), or a reduced cross-channel offensive. However, the Atlantic wall won't have been built.

The desert war would probably go better for the British - the Germans were limited by logistics, and the British will be better off from the spare capacity.

This assumes that the Battle of France goes as OTL, of course. If the British army has more air support they may be able to destroy the bridges over the Meuse, thus stopping the German encirclement.


I'm sure I've not covered everything here, so let me know what I've missed and where I've gone wrong!
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