WW2: What if Vichy declares war on Britain after attack on Mers-el-Kébir?

This is more information on how the British Government viewed the Fall of France and the consequences of the Vichy Government declaring war on Great Britain. It is from Volume X of Grand Strategy.

CHAPTER X

THE IMMEDIATE CONSEQUENCES OF THE FRENCH COLLAPSE (2)


Second in importance only to the French Fleet were the French overseas possessions. Just before the fall of the Reynaud Government the Chiefs of Staff expressed their hope that the French would continue to fight from North Africa, using the abundant shipping at Marseilles to convey all the troops and material possible, with priority for specialist and technical units. But on the same day they advised on the action to be taken in the event of a total French collapse, involving the whole of the army and colonial empire. Much would depend on the attitude of local French authorities, but the general conclusions of the report were that we should intensify the blockade by controlling produce at source and deny the use of French colonial bases to the enemy; there could be no question of taking over the French possessions ourselves. The Mediterranean coast of French Africa would be outside our control but we should press the French to allow us the use of Casablanca should Gibraltar become untenable. By every means the enemy must be kept out of Syria. In the Far East the French defeat might temp the Japanese to occupy Indo-China, whence they could threaten Singapore by both sea and air; we out to do nothing which might disturb the status quo. Here, as elsewhere, American co-operation was most desirable. We should also try to induce Turkey to declare herself a belligerent. In any case, should the Government at Bordeaux make terms with the enemy, we should appeal to the local administrations to disregard a surrender made under duress and fight on with us. General de Gaulle was not as yet a national figure. His broadcasts, especially that of June 23, challenging the authority of the Pétain Government to speak for France, and the British declaration in support of him had naturally incensed Bordeaux, and his initiative was by no means universally applauded even by patriots determined to resist. Nevertheless on June 28 he was recognised by the British Government as "the leader of all Free Frenchmen, wherever they may be, who rally to him in support of the Allied cause".

The Cabinet on June 17 approved both reports. For some days it seemed that the French colonial authorities might respond favourably, but even those who had protested against surrender were reluctant to disobey lawful authority and show a divided front. On the 22nd the British Cabinet authorised a further appeal, but General Noguès, Commander-in-Chief in French North Africa, had accepted defeat by the 25th. He refused to meet Mr. Duff Cooper, Minister of Information, and Lord Gort, who flew to Rabat on the 26th, and they were not allowed to make contact with member of the Reynaud Government.[1] By June 27th it seemed clear in London that there was little hope of resistance in the African colonies. The news from the Levant too was bad. Nowhere, it seemed, in the French overseas empire was anyone of commanding repute prepared to give a lead.[2]


For a few days after the incident at Mers-el-Kebir it was touch and go whether the Government, now installed at Vichy, would be provoked into declaring war on Great Britain. A few French bombs were in fact half-heartedly dropped on Gibraltar and the French Government broke of diplomatic relations. A strategical appreciation of the implications of French hostility was clearly called for, and on July 16 the Chiefs of Staff issued a report on this subject, assuming the worse case, of a France actively hostile.

The most serious military results were likely to appear in the first place in the altered balance of naval strengths in the Mediterranean and the eastern Atlantic, particularly if the enemy used French West African ports. This danger, of the enemy using French bases, came next, and thirdly there was the increased risk to some of our own overseas possessions. Gibraltar might become unusable if attacked from North Africa, and it might become very difficult to reinforce Malta. The use of either Cassablanca or Dakar by the enemy, especially Dakar, would be most serious, nor could we tolerate the use of Diego Saurez in Madagascar as a base for enemy raiders in the Indian Ocean. On the other hand we were in a good position to influence by economic pressure the attitude of the more isolated French colonies.

Steps had already been taken to strengthen the defence of Gibraltar. The local anti-aircraft defences were derisory, a mere eight guns, when the Chiefs of Staff decided on June 19 to send sixteen heavy anti-aircraft guns as a matter of urgency. The importance of Gibraltar as "the only capital ship dock between the United Kingdom and Durban" was stressed at meetings a month later, and also the danger to ships in harbour from the Spanish 12-inch howitzers known to be mounted near by. It was agreed that the fortress must be defended to the last, but the Chiefs of Staff recognised that in the absence of fighter aircraft it could not be used indefinitely as a base for the fleet in the face of heavy air attack from Africa or Spain.

Should Gibraltar become untenable, Freetown in Sierra Leone would become "vitally important" as a bunkering station and a port where convoys could be assembled and routed.[3] Even with Gibraltar still available, Freetown's importance had been greatly increased by the closure of the Mediterranean, since most of the supply ships and transports of the Middle East called at Freetown for water, fuel and stores. This port was also the headquarters of Commander-in-Chief, South Atlantic, who had a small force of cruisers at his disposal as escorts and for the protection of trade. The Chiefs of Staff recognised that Freetown might be bombarded in the course of raids by German or Italian ships, but they did not consider serious attack likely unless France became hostile, and they thought it unnecessary to send British troops to Freetown at present. There merely recommended that the coastal and anti-aircraft defences and accommodation prepared for an infantry brigade and a squadron of fighter aircraft. An alternative to Freetown, the possible use of Takoradi in the Gold Coast as assembly port for convoys should be investigated, and it might be feasible to route some part of the Australian and New Zealand trade by the Pacific and Panama, whilst a small proportion of the Cape traffic could be routed via Trinidad; this would however greatly increase the distance and the demand for escorts. Freetown would in any case continue to be a link of the first importance in our sea communications.

The recommendations of the Report of July16 included the maintenance of a capital ship fleet at Gibraltar, as well as of the existing fleet in the Eastern Mediterranean; also immediate action to improve the defences of Malta. On July 22 the Cabinet approved the recommendations and later the same day the Defence Committee paid special attention to the defence of Gibraltar against a surprise attack.

Happily the worst did not occur. Marshal Pétain did not declare war on his old ally. The remaining French warships did not fall into enemy hands. The Germans did not seize the Mediterranean or West African ports. Spain did not admit German troops from France, and German attempts later on to make use of Syria merely gave the Allies an opportunity to occupy it. Neither Gibraltar nor Freetown was not seriously attacked, while Malta resisted all assaults from the air. Nor indeed did the whole of the French Empire adhere to adhere to Vichy; before the end of 1940 the vast regions of French Equatorial Africa joined General de Gaulle.[4]

But our good fortune went further. The Vichy Government itself was neither so uniformly ill-disposed nor so incapable of taking a line of its own as was commonly assumed in London. There were many shades of grey between the black malevolence of Laval, the vacillations of the senile chief, and the latent sympathies of Weygand. Moreover there were limits to the pressure which the conqueror would put on them. Hitler explained to Ciano on July 7 that a separate peace with France was undesirable for two reasons; Germany could not at present occupy French African colonies which she proposed to annex when peace was signed, and it was better to leave them meanwhile in French possession; secondly, the Atlantic coast of France must be retained in German hands for the double purpose of intensifying the war against England and maintaining communications with Spain, "a country which was most useful for the Axis game whatever happened, and indispensable should one wish to make an attempt on Gibraltar".[5]

Hitler evidently thought that in the meantime French official goodwill would be a considerable convenience, and he preferred therefore not to humiliate the Pétain Government beyond a certain measure. A further argument, which may have influenced him, for treating France with some leniency was the emergence of the Free French movement; so long as Britain was undefeated nothing must be done to encourage resistance or, least of all, to drive the French colonies into the Gaullist camp. Vichy had in fact a good many counters to bargain with.

The first test of the relationship between victor and vanquished came on July 16. On the previous day the Germans had demanded military facilities in North Africa: eight air bases in Morocco, the use of the railway from Tunis to Rabat, the use of French ports and French ships to convey German air units to Africa. This demand far exceeded the terms of the armistice and Pétain successfully resisted it.[6] We can now see that, while in the last resort Vichy must obey the crack of the German whip, the Germans would be loath to crack it, or at any rate to use it, more often than necessary. This was not, however, fully understood in England at the time.


[1] See Viscount Northwich, Old Men Forget (1953) pp. 282-284.

[2] For the Levant, see below, p. 302 General Catroux, Governor-General of Indo-China, who afterwards joined de Gaulle, was recalled in July.

[3] See Map 8.

[4] See below, p. 317, and Map 12.

[5] Ciano's Diplomatic Papers p. 376.

[6] Weygand, Rappelé au Service p. 320. Baudouin 172-174
 
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... This was not, however, fully understood in England at the time. ...

This I think shows the difference between hindsight & perception of the moment. Churchill often complained of his marshals and admirals taking counsel of their fears. In this case, as in a number of others his focus on worst case led him to neglecting more favorable alternatives.
 
The French Navy was nothing to sneeze at. Even after the British bombardment they had some powerful units left. If these joined up with the Italian Fleet they could seriously challenge the British in the Med. Even in the OTL, the French naval units based in Syria put up an amazingly good fight when the British finally got around to occupying the place. It probably would not have dramatically changed the course of the war, but who knows? A major naval victory in the Mediterranean would have seriously upset England's apple cart.
I agree.

After Mers-el-Kébir the Vichy Navy still had...

Three capital ships
Richelieu at Dakar
Jean Bart (admittedly incomplete) at Casablanca
Strasbourg which had escaped from Mers-el-Kébir​

Fourteen cruisers
4 heavy cruisers (including the Algérie) in the Mediterranean
6 La Galissonnière class light cruisers in the Mediterranean
2 light cruisers (Jeanne d' Arc and Emile Bertin) at Martinique
1 light cruiser (Primaguet) at Dakar
1 light cruiser (Lamotte-Piquet) in Indo-China​

Forty Six Destroyers of all types (all in the Mediterranean)
26 contre-torpilleurs
14 torpilleurs of the 1500 tonne type
6 small destroyers of the 600 tonne type​

Sixty Five Submarines (all in the Mediterranean or at Casablanca)
5 minelaying boats (all Saphir class)
32 ocean going boats (7 of the 1150 tonne type and 25 of the 1500 tonne type)
28 coastal boats (1 Aurore class, 18 of the 630 tonne type and 9 of the 600 tonne type​

There was also the French squadron at Alexandria consisting of the old battleship Lorraine, 3 heavy cruisers, one light cruiser and 3 destroyers of the 1500 type.
 
This assumes the fuel for the French naval operations is available. If my info on the fuel remaining to the French navy has any accuracy there's not enough for more than a few weeks of full on operations, or a few months of lower level sustained operations. Both the Italians and Germans extended their naval fuels supplies into 1943 by drawing on French supplies in Metropolitan France and Tunisia. Efforts to use the French navy on a large scale support of Axis operations seem likely to cripple Axis efforts faster in the Mediterranean.
I disagree with the last sentence, but the rest is a valid point.

I think that they would use the fuel that was available to keep the submarines and their best cruisers operational for as long as possible. I think both would have made a significant contribution to the Battle of the Atlantic in the second half of 1940 and the first half of 1941.
 
The Iraqi military and the British forces in Iraq would just invade Syria and conquer it in less than a month.
Firstly, there is no way that the Iraqi Government would help the British do that. For one thing if Vichy had declared war on Great Britain in July 1940 the Iraqis are not going to support what looks like the loosing side. It's far more likely that there would be an earlier Iraqi Revolt and that the new government in Baghdad would declare war on Great Britain.

Secondly, Wavell didn't have the resources to invade Syria in July 1940. He might be able to do it later on instead of Operation Compass or by delaying the invasion of Italian East Africa, both of which would help the Italians.
 
The resupply of Malta would now be a entire Western Med battle instead of just once they reach the Tunis sea area.
I think you mean that you mean that the resupply of Malta would be an entire Eastern Mediterranean battle because the Western Mediterranean would be an Axis lake.

Lake is probably too strong a word because there would be some British submarines operating there from Gibraltar. However, I doubt that the British would attempt to run any Gibraltar to Malta convoys or Club Runs.

If the Axis still conquers mainland Greece and Crete in the Spring of 1941 and Rommel's first offensive still happens there's a good chance that Malta will have to surrender in the second half of 1941.
 
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This assumes the fuel for the French naval operations is available. If my info on the fuel remaining to the French navy has any accuracy there's not enough for more than a few weeks of full on operations, or a few months of lower level sustained operations. Both the Italians and Germans extended their naval fuels supplies into 1943 by drawing on French supplies in Metropolitan France and Tunisia. Efforts to use the French navy on a large scale support of Axis operations seem likely to cripple Axis efforts faster in the Mediterranean.
I know that it's unlikely, but what if the few weeks of full on operations were a Vichy squadron supporting Operation Berlin? The Force de Raid in reverse! The squadron would consist of Richelieu, Strasbourg and the 6 La Galissonnière class light cruisers. If they meet a convoy the capital ships draw off the escort while the cruisers sink the merchant ships.
 

CalBear

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Almost certainly bring the U.S. into the war sooner. Nazi forces in Guadalupe or St. Pierre & Miquelon isn't going to stand.

On the other hand it also might eliminate the Pacific War. The U.S. dropped the oil hammer on the Japanese when the occupied French Indochina. That might not happen in this scenario.
 
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Almost certainly bring the U.S. into the war sooner. Nazi forces in Guadalupe or St. Pierre & Miquelon isn't going to stand.

On the other hand it also might eliminate the Pacific War. The U.S. dropped the oil hammer on the Japanese when the occupied French Indochina. That might not happen in this scenario.
Interesting.
Do you think that just preventing a German presence in our hemisphere would be a politically acceptable reason by itself, or would it require some escalation involving the Atlantic convoys?
 
Almost certainly bring the U.S. into the war sooner. Nazi forces in Guadalupe or St. Pierre & Miquelon isn't going to stand.

On the other hand it also might eliminate the Pacific War. The U.S. dropped the oil hammer on the Japanese when the occupied French Indochina. That might not happen in this scenario.

What Nazi Forces? The Former French Colonies have been brought under US administration for the Protection of their Citizens. There's literally no way in hell that significant forces can reach those islands before the US can take them over.
 
I think you mean that you mean that the resupply of Malta would be an entire Eastern Mediterranean battle because the Western Mediterranean would be an Axis lake.

Lake is probably too strong a word because there would be some British submarines operating there from Gibraltar. However, I doubt that the British would attempt to run any Gibraltar to Malta convoys or Club Runs.

If the Axis still conquers mainland Greece and Crete in the Spring of 1941 and Rommel's first offensive still happens there's a good chance that Malta will have to surrender in the second half of 1941.

Yes. Thank you for clarifying that!
 
...
On the other hand it also might eliminate the Pacific War. The U.S. dropped the oil hammer on the Japanese when the occupied French Indochina. That might not happen in this scenario.

Might? Handing over FIC to Japan as the Germans required OTL is guaranteed to kill any idea of alliance with the Axis. The Japanese occupation of FIC was the second blow to Petains government. Not obtaining a peace treaty and end date to occupation being the first. FIC was one of the more lucrative French colonies & the loss of control of its rice, rubber, and mineral exports was of high concern to the French business community at large.

I disagree with the last sentence, but the rest is a valid point.

I think that they would use the fuel that was available to keep the submarines and their best cruisers operational for as long as possible. I think both would have made a significant contribution to the Battle of the Atlantic in the second half of 1940 and the first half of 1941.

This has been my thought when the subject of a Axis French navy has come up. Submarines and some surface raiders are the easiest out of a difficult challenge. The problem I can never resolve is the attitude of the French citizenry & military personnel. OTL one of the reasons the German Armistice Commission restricted the fuel the French ships could have on board, and restricted their time at sea was a not unreasonable fear the crews would desert with their ships. These Axis French threads are usually flawed by a implication the French soldiery & citizenry all become reliable Facists en mass. That did not even happen in Germany, it took the constant attention of the Gestapo & other groups to keep the population in line.

As in OTL the seminal point would likely be the attack on the USSR. The left took this as a sign to look for other avenues that cooperation with Germany. Neither does a treaty with Germany by a Facist or Collaborationist government waive away the attitude of the numerous Germanophobes among the French. Large scale obstructionism and desertion would become a problem. Eventually as the Free French group grows and the Brit SOE gains experience Metropolitan France and the colonies are going to go the way of OTL. For the navy this means the Axis leaders can either risk assorted French ships deserting, or being sabotaged. Or they can rigorously screen the crews and thus reduce the numbers that can be deployed for combat.
 
The French naval forces in the Caribbean remained under Vichy control right up until Operation Torch took place. Initially the British had a squadron keeping an eye on them and then later (before entering the war) the US Navy took over the task. (Source: Samuel Eliot Morrison's "The Battle of the Atlantic").
 

CalBear

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Might? Handing over FIC to Japan as the Germans required OTL is guaranteed to kill any idea of alliance with the Axis. The Japanese occupation of FIC was the second blow to Petains government. Not obtaining a peace treaty and end date to occupation being the first. FIC was one of the more lucrative French colonies & the loss of control of its rice, rubber, and mineral exports was of high concern to the French business community at large.



This has been my thought when the subject of a Axis French navy has come up. Submarines and some surface raiders are the easiest out of a difficult challenge. The problem I can never resolve is the attitude of the French citizenry & military personnel. OTL one of the reasons the German Armistice Commission restricted the fuel the French ships could have on board, and restricted their time at sea was a not unreasonable fear the crews would desert with their ships. These Axis French threads are usually flawed by a implication the French soldiery & citizenry all become reliable Facists en mass. That did not even happen in Germany, it took the constant attention of the Gestapo & other groups to keep the population in line.

As in OTL the seminal point would likely be the attack on the USSR. The left took this as a sign to look for other avenues that cooperation with Germany. Neither does a treaty with Germany by a Facist or Collaborationist government waive away the attitude of the numerous Germanophobes among the French. Large scale obstructionism and desertion would become a problem. Eventually as the Free French group grows and the Brit SOE gains experience Metropolitan France and the colonies are going to go the way of OTL. For the navy this means the Axis leaders can either risk assorted French ships deserting, or being sabotaged. Or they can rigorously screen the crews and thus reduce the numbers that can be deployed for combat.
It was, but an Axis Vichy would be in a very different place than a Vichy which obviously had a gun to its head when it gave the Japanese "permission" to take over much of SEA.
 
Interesting.
Do you think that just preventing a German presence in our hemisphere would be a politically acceptable reason by itself, or would it require some escalation involving the Atlantic convoys?

There's probably a couple ways that could play out. The US could 'ask' the UK to quickly take those colonies or like Alanith suggests they will be 'taken under the protection of the US until after the war'.

The really interesting point is Cal Bear's about the Pacific. The 'forgotten' possessions are New Caledonia and the other south Pacific islands that now become Axis bases between the US and Australia. That situation cannot be allowed to continue.
 
Interesting.
Do you think that just preventing a German presence in our hemisphere would be a politically acceptable reason by itself, or would it require some escalation involving the Atlantic convoys?

One of the rational for formation of 'Amphibious Forces Atlantic Fleet' was the perceived need for a large corps size rapid deployment force for the USN to counter any Axis moves in the western hemisphere & elsewhere in reach. The 1st Marine Division, 1st Inf Div, & later the 9th ID spent 1941 conducting readiness exercises for landings while the Atlantic fleet planned assorted operations for seizing locations as diverse as the the Azores, Canrries, the north coast of Brazil, about anywhere in the Caribbean. The effort to occupy Iceland with US forces bore fruit in the summer of 1941. IIRC a tripwire force was planted in Liberia to prepare the way for a 'protective' force if needed. Not sure if the same occurred in Sierra Leone. Plan RUBBER was a well prepared rehearsed plan for countering nazi airbases in Brazil. That the fear was unfounded & there was never any planning or preparation for planting a FW200 there meant little. The US was ready to send entire corps on the appearance of a single Axis uniform.
 
The French naval forces in the Caribbean remained under Vichy control right up until Operation Torch took place. Initially the British had a squadron keeping an eye on them and then later (before entering the war) the US Navy took over the task. (Source: Samuel Eliot Morrison's "The Battle of the Atlantic").

Wasn't the Bearn caught/interned at Martinique? That would have to be handled as well.
 
There's probably a couple ways that could play out. The US could 'ask' the UK to quickly take those colonies or like Alanith suggests they will be 'taken under the protection of the US until after the war'.

The really interesting point is Cal Bear's about the Pacific. The 'forgotten' possessions are New Caledonia and the other south Pacific islands that now become Axis bases between the US and Australia. That situation cannot be allowed to continue.

My understanding was the French S Pac colonies were all for DeGaulles Free French. They certainly wanted nothing to to do with the Japanese, hard to see that lot embracing the Japapese as allies. The governors would probably be even more eager for US Marines and Army regiments to arrive.

It was, but an Axis Vichy would be in a very different place than a Vichy which obviously had a gun to its head when it gave the Japanese "permission" to take over much of SEA.

I just can't see a pro Axis government changing the attitudes of the French population that easily, if at all. A lot of this will come back to that the Germans have so little to offer France. A bag of coal does not offset the inability to import grain or meat from the Western Hemisphere, or petroleum. OTL the Brits were lenient with the fishing fleets of occupied Europe. The protein brought in by the French, Belgian, Dutch, and Norwegian fishing industry was important to keeping a low minimum level of protein available in occupied Europe. What happens when the Brits disrupt the French fishing fleet? Sure the French navy will resist and win some naval battles over this, but the fishing industry can't keep up effective operations under such conditions.

Neither does German coal bribe the French Communists, or left in general to cheer on the war against the USSR, nor turn the Germaphobes into happy supporters of the new order. OTL Petains prestige & desperate political maneuvering prevented outright civil war in France, tho not by much. I am skeptical a government of Facists and collaborationist could prevent a larger scale insurgency than occurred OTL.
 
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