WW2 Two pronged attack on USSR

In Hitlers lost book he stated that he didn't want to go to war with America until he had taken over Europe. The Japense were either stupid of very impatient and attacked America bringing us into the war on Germany, this would lead to his inevitable downfall. So what I want to know is what if the Japanese had done the smart thing and instead of attacking America they attacked the USSR forcing it into a two fron war, just like Germany? Would Germany have been able to pull off a victoryOr at least force the Soviet Union out of the war similar to WWI? Would the Americans have still found a way to get involved in the war? would the Axis powers have defeated the Allies and then gone after America if we didn't entire the second world war? Would the Axis still have lost and if so about how much longer would the war have lasted?
 
In Hitlers lost book he stated that he didn't want to go to war with America until he had taken over Europe. The Japense were either stupid of very impatient and attacked America bringing us into the war on Germany, this would lead to his inevitable downfall. So what I want to know is what if the Japanese had done the smart thing and instead of attacking America they attacked the USSR forcing it into a two fron war, just like Germany? Would Germany have been able to pull off a victoryOr at least force the Soviet Union out of the war similar to WWI? Would the Americans have still found a way to get involved in the war? would the Axis powers have defeated the Allies and then gone after America if we didn't entire the second world war? Would the Axis still have lost and if so about how much longer would the war have lasted?

That ties up the SU's key Eastern division which will affect the Eastern front but what have the Japanese got to gain from attacking the Far East minus Vladivostock which aint a great prize
 
The Japanese weren't stupid or impatient, their attack on Pearl Harbor was to neutralize the Pacific Fleet so that they could take the oil rich East Indies. Japan needed the oil, and since their involvment in China caused America to slap an embargo on them, well the rest is history. If there were oil wells in the Russian Far East at the time, then perhaps Japan would have hit the Soviet Union Even if there was a combined war against the Soviet Union, I think the Soviets would prevail in the end, assuming Stalin wasn't toppled as a result of the war. FDR was inching America closer to war in the Atlantic throughout 1941, so sooner or later there would be an excuse.
 
The Japanese weren't stupid or impatient, their attack on Pearl Harbor was to neutralize the Pacific Fleet so that they could take the oil rich East Indies. Japan needed the oil, and since their involvment in China caused America to slap an embargo on them, well the rest is history. If there were oil wells in the Russian Far East at the time, then perhaps Japan would have hit the Soviet Union Even if there was a combined war against the Soviet Union, I think the Soviets would prevail in the end, assuming Stalin wasn't toppled as a result of the war. FDR was inching America closer to war in the Atlantic throughout 1941, so sooner or later there would be an excuse.

Indeed the Japs couldn't keep an expantionist war going without oil (forgot to mention that :eek:)
 
So what I want to know is what if the Japanese had done the smart thing and instead of attacking America they attacked the USSR forcing it into a two fron war, just like Germany?


"General" Finley,

The smart thing? Attacking the USSR was the smart thing for Japan to do? The same USSR who had done this to Japan's vaunted Kwantung Army in the summer of 1939?

Here's a snip for those who don't want to follow the link: By August 31, 1939 the Japanese had been driven back out of the disputed territory. Of 60,000 Japanese troops committed, nearly 45,000 were killed. The IJA 23rd Infantry Division took 73% casualties. The 71st Regiment suffered over 93% losses. In contrast, the IJA took 28% casualties at Mukden, the most hard fought battle of the Russo-Japanese War.

So in the summer of 1941 with the same tactics, tanks, artillery, and aircraft, the Japanese are going to go for Round Two with the same enemy who kicked their asses so thoroughly just two years before?

And what will such an offensive do for Japan? She's bogged down in China and she's already under embargoes from the US and Europe. How will expending more oil, more ammo, and more lives fighting over the essentially empty Trans-Baikal region going to help her one whit? (Please don't bring up the oil in Siberia. Given the technology of the period, Japan could neither find or exploit it.)

Would Germany have been able to pull off a victory

No. Myths aside very few troops were redeployed from the USSR's Far East to fight the Germans.

Or at least force the Soviet Union out of the war similar to WWI?

With the addition of this useless Japanese attack? No.

Would the Americans have still found a way to get involved in the war?

Yes. Japan is still going to launch the "Lunge to the South". In fact, in fighting the USSR, Japan needs to capture the Southern Resource Area even more urgently.

would the Axis powers have defeated the Allies and then gone after America if we didn't entire the second world war?

No. That's still ASB given your changes.

Would the Axis still have lost and if so about how much longer would the war have lasted?

The Pacific War may very well be shorter with more of the Japanese Army killed in Manchuria earlier on and the logistical demands for the front there straining Japan's industries even further. Japan will be more stretched more earlier. Something will have to give, perhaps a draw down of fighting in China or a defensive posture in Burma sooner.


Bill
 
"General" Finley,

The smart thing? Attacking the USSR was the smart thing for Japan to do? The same USSR who had done this to Japan's vaunted Kwantung Army in the summer of 1939?

Here's a snip for those who don't want to follow the link: By August 31, 1939 the Japanese had been driven back out of the disputed territory. Of 60,000 Japanese troops committed, nearly 45,000 were killed. The IJA 23rd Infantry Division took 73% casualties. The 71st Regiment suffered over 93% losses. In contrast, the IJA took 28% casualties at Mukden, the most hard fought battle of the Russo-Japanese War.

So in the summer of 1941 with the same tactics, tanks, artillery, and aircraft, the Japanese are going to go for Round Two with the same enemy who kicked their asses so thoroughly just two years before?

And what will such an offensive do for Japan? She's bogged down in China and she's already under embargoes from the US and Europe. How will expending more oil, more ammo, and more lives fighting over the essentially empty Trans-Baikal region going to help her one whit? (Please don't bring up the oil in Siberia. Given the technology of the period, Japan could neither find or exploit it.)



No. Myths aside very few troops were redeployed from the USSR's Far East to fight the Germans.



With the addition of this useless Japanese attack? No.



Yes. Japan is still going to launch the "Lunge to the South". In fact, in fighting the USSR, Japan needs to capture the Southern Resource Area even more urgently.



No. That's still ASB given your changes.



The Pacific War may very well be shorter with more of the Japanese Army killed in Manchuria earlier on and the logistical demands for the front there straining Japan's industries even further. Japan will be more stretched more earlier. Something will have to give, perhaps a draw down of fighting in China or a defensive posture in Burma sooner.


Bill

wel not the smart thing, but the thing that would have kept the Americans out of the war longer like Hitler had wanted. He knew that the Axis powers could not win if they had to fight the US also. He didn't want to fight the US until a good two years after the war for Europe. His super Battleships weren't going to be finished tell 1944 or was it 46, sorry I can't really remember exactly, but they were not ment to fight a war with a European power but with America.
 

CalBear

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You are fairly new here, so, let's actually look at the question from a slightlu different angle.

What, one must ask, would the Empire gain by attacking the USSR?

Oil? No

Rubber? No

A defendable perimeter for the Madates, Formosa, and the Home Islands? No

A free hand in China? No

The defrosting of the Empire's frozen assets? No

A defeat of the USN when it was still remotely possible to achieve such a result? No

Unfettetered access to the Southern Resource Area? No

In that case, what DOES the Empire gain?

An ass kicking (the second in five years) by the Red Army. Check

A hardened attitude from the Americans, British, DEI and Free French? Check

500,000 extra casualties? Check

Open support for the Chinese against Japan by the USSR? Check

A Soviet Manchuria? Check

A still inevetible war with the U.S., but now AFTER the U.S. has completed its military reorganization/buildup and after a sizable part of the IJA lies in Siberian graves? Check

Why do YOU think that the Japanese didn't go after the USSR instead?
 
The Japense were either stupid of very impatient and attacked America bringing us into the war on Germany, this would lead to his inevitable downfall.

Remember that it was Hitler that declared war on America not the other way around.

So what I want to know is what if the Japanese had done the smart thing and instead of attacking America they attacked the USSR forcing it into a two front war, just like Germany?

How is that smart exactly? Instead of the oil rich Indies invade a desert.

Would Germany have been able to pull off a victory Or at least force the Soviet Union out of the war similar to WWI?

Most likely no, USSR had enough forces in the Far East to kick the Japanese out of the Asian mainland so they could still launch the Moscow counter offensive whilst leaving the Japnese to freely advance into harsher and harsher conditions.

Would the Americans have still found a way to get involved in the war? would the Axis powers have defeated the Allies and then gone after America if we didn't entire the second world war?

Yes the war in the Atlantic would have gone from De Facto to De Jure eventually.

And no they wouldn't have won the war seeing as they are fighting both the Uninted States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics


Would the Axis still have lost and if so about how much longer would the war have lasted?

A few months max before Germany becomes a nuclear desert.
 
Is any point in being so condescending and patronizing? Finley was polite and asked a simple question. He's looking for opinions and never said anything rude to any of us. New or not, he deserves a little courtesy, don't you think? We were all new once. Stop putting on airs. It's becoming tedious.
 
wel not the smart thing, but the thing that would have kept the Americans out of the war longer like Hitler had wanted.


"General" Finley,

Kept America out of the war longer? Huh?

Did you miss it when I wrote In fact, in fighting the USSR, Japan needs to capture the Southern Resource Area even more urgently.?

Look at only two items on CalBear's list; oil and rubber. Due to the Western embargoes, Japan is already running out of those thanks to the limited demands of the desultory fighting in China. Now you're going to have them pick a fight with a far tougher enemy, an enemy who has already kicked their ass in border clashes dating back to the 1920s, and fight that enemy in what is essentially a trackless waste devoid of any resources.

Once the "Siberian Campaign" kicks off in June of '41, Japan is going need all those goodies in the Southern Resource Area all the sooner. In the OTL, Japan was down to less than 6 months oil reserve by December. If she's fighting the USSR, she'll burn through that even faster which means she'll need to attack the Western powers in the Southern Resource Area even sooner than in the OTL, and the need to grab the DEI and all the rest means the Philippines will get hit too.

Attacking the USSR means Japan is going to bring the US into the war sooner, not later.


Bill
 
Remember that it was Hitler that declared war on America not the other way around.



How is that smart exactly? Instead of the oil rich Indies invade a desert.



Most likely no, USSR had enough forces in the Far East to kick the Japanese out of the Asian mainland so they could still launch the Moscow counter offensive whilst leaving the Japnese to freely advance into harsher and harsher conditions.



Yes the war in the Atlantic would have gone from De Facto to De Jure eventually.

And no they wouldn't have won the war seeing as they are fighting both the Uninted States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics




A few months max before Germany becomes a nuclear desert.

Hitlers hand was forced. When the Japenese attack Pearl harbor. He had written he didn't wan't to attack America until his european empire was cemented. Although you do have point What would have happened if He had Abandoned his ally of Japan and not declared war on America.
 
Is any point in being so condescending and patronizing? Finley was polite and asked a simple question. He's looking for opinions and never said anything rude to any of us. New or not, he deserves a little courtesy, don't you think? We were all new once. Stop putting on airs. It's becoming tedious.

True but why do people think that the "Japan invades Siberia" idea is original and never been discussed on a forum whos most recurring What Ifs are about World War 2.
 
I believe it was the Kreigsmarine who were pushing for that declaration of war against the US. They resented American aid to Britain and the activity of US warships in the Atlantic, which seemed to be behaving more as belligerants than as neutral ships.
You've read Hitler's second book, so you know he had no illusions about American industrial might. So, what exactly was he thinking, in honoring his pact with Japan by declaring war on us? How could he have been so blind?
One important thing to remember is that Hitler was a raving loon, as crazy, as the saying goes, as a rat in a coffee can. In 1941 he was already slipping, and his daily dope injections from Dr.Feelgood didn't help. Who is to say he even really knew his own mind?
 
True but why do people think that the "Japan invades Siberia" idea is original and never been discussed on a forum whos most recurring What Ifs are about World War 2.

No one has claimed this idea was original. General Finley wasn't around to participate in the previous discussions of "Japan invades Siberia" and asked what we thought. So, why not rehash it again, for the zillionth time, or however many it's been? It does no harm that I can see, and it's an interesting idea, no matter how old.
Do you ever get the idea, sometimes, that some of the people here really try hard to imagine a plausible World War II scenario in which the USSR is destroyed, simply because they fervently wish it could have happened? And maybe others feel some admiration for the Soviets, and because of this they refuse to consider the possibility that the USSR wasn't invincible, and could have been brought down by a two-front war, or the right combination of enemies?
 

CalBear

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Hitlers hand was forced. When the Japenese attack Pearl harbor. He had written he didn't wan't to attack America until his european empire was cemented. Although you do have point What would have happened if He had Abandoned his ally of Japan and not declared war on America.

The Tripartite Pact didn't work that way. It was more of a regonition of spheres of influence than a classic partnership. It did have a Mutual DEFENSE agreement, but that was all. Germany could have stayed out of the U.S./Japanese War just as Germany and France (both NATO members) stayed out of the Iraq War when the U.S. went after Saddam under Article 51 of the UN Charter governing collective Self Defense becuase Japan had NOT BEEN ATTACKED.

If he didn't jump in what WOULD have happened? Is Italy going to go its own way? The Romanians? Bulgarians? Of course not. There IS no negative for the Reich if they let the Pacific War remain the Pacific War. FDR would have been in a bind since he was able to see that the Reich was the real threat, but keeping the U.S. on the sidelines as long as possible was in Hitler's best interest.

Hitler jumped in because, as usual, he was thinking with his ball (reputedly he only had one after a dog attack, probably untrue but a happy making thought nonetheless) and not his brain. It was a very solid demonstration of just what a bloodly fool Hitler actually was.
 
No one has claimed this idea was original. General Finley wasn't around to participate in the previous discussions of "Japan invades Siberia" and asked what we thought. So, why not rehash it again, for the zillionth time, or however many it's been? It does no harm that I can see, and it's an interesting idea, no matter how old.

Well I always argued that we should have stickys for commonly asked scenarios e.g Sealion,Bomb Polt succeeding,Japan joining Barbarossa but the constant rehasing drwas attention away from more unique PoD's like my new Germany loses the Battle of Crete Timeline to give a random example ;)

Do you ever get the idea, sometimes, that some of the people here really try hard to imagine a plausible World War II scenario in which the USSR is destroyed, simply because they fervently wish it could have happened? And maybe others feel some admiration for the Soviets, and because of this they refuse to consider the possibility that the USSR wasn't invincible, and could have been brought down by a two-front war, or the right combination of enemies?

Well I think most Uralians see the desicive contribution the Soviet Union made to the war as being to some degree overstated and seek out to disporove that.

However I agree with you on Atlantians, being one myself.
 
What about an earlier POD (say, Japanese expeditionary forces getting involved on the Western front) that leads the IJA General Staff to realize that elan don't cut it no more, and focus on modernizing their forces and developing more effective weapons and doctrines? Maybe they can beat USSR in their little skirmishes, and when Germany jumps in, so do they (after all, they've beat the Russians a couple times now--what could possibly go wrong?)
 
The Tripartite Pact didn't work that way. It was more of a regonition of spheres of influence than a classic partnership. It did have a Mutual DEFENSE agreement, but that was all. Germany could have stayed out of the U.S./Japanese War just as Germany and France (both NATO members) stayed out of the Iraq War when the U.S. went after Saddam under Article 51 of the UN Charter governing collective Self Defense becuase Japan had NOT BEEN ATTACKED.

If he didn't jump in what WOULD have happened? Is Italy going to go its own way? The Romanians? Bulgarians? Of course not. There IS no negative for the Reich if they let the Pacific War remain the Pacific War. FDR would have been in a bind since he was able to see that the Reich was the real threat, but keeping the U.S. on the sidelines as long as possible was in Hitler's best interest.

Hitler jumped in because, as usual, he was thinking with his ball (reputedly he only had one after a dog attack, probably untrue but a happy making thought nonetheless) and not his brain. It was a very solid demonstration of just what a bloodly fool Hitler actually was.
Agreed, Hitler made some of the stupidest mistakes in the history of war fare. Attacking the Russians in the Winter, invading Poland even though he should have known the Britsh would declar war.

So If he didn't help Japan and the US went to war with Japan in the Pacific how would the US have gotten involved in the European war?
 
In Hitlers lost book he stated that he didn't want to go to war with America until he had taken over Europe. The Japense were either stupid of very impatient and attacked America bringing us into the war on Germany, this would lead to his inevitable downfall. So what I want to know is what if the Japanese had done the smart thing and instead of attacking America they attacked the USSR forcing it into a two fron war, just like Germany? Would Germany have been able to pull off a victoryOr at least force the Soviet Union out of the war similar to WWI? Would the Americans have still found a way to get involved in the war? would the Axis powers have defeated the Allies and then gone after America if we didn't entire the second world war? Would the Axis still have lost and if so about how much longer would the war have lasted?

1) Japan didnt want to attack USA- japanese were dreaming about South-East Asia, where located the colonies of european countries(where wanted minerals located), what are paralysed by Hitler, butafter occupation of French Indo-Chineese colonies and American sanctions against japan it became clear for japanese goverment, that USA will fight for freedom(deleted) against Japan in case of its aggression against GB and\or netherlands-so japan had to eliminate American threat from the East-from hawaii and Philippienes
2) battle of khalkhin-Gol was only two years before, and japanese commanders knew, that in the case of a possible defeat it would be hard to save Manchuria, and all japanese dreams aboutChina could turn out of the threat of destruction.
3)What could Japan have except of woods, if they were able to occupy Soviet Far East?
 
What about an earlier POD (say, Japanese expeditionary forces getting involved on the Western front) that leads the IJA General Staff to realize that elan don't cut it no more, and focus on modernizing their forces and developing more effective weapons and doctrines? Maybe they can beat USSR in their little skirmishes, and when Germany jumps in, so do they (after all, they've beat the Russians a couple times now--what could possibly go wrong?

That is possible since Japan considered Russia/USSR to be one of its greatest enemies beside the USA. That still leaves the oil problem though. The only solution I can think of is them discovering the Daqing oilfield in Manchuria (they were sitting on it for like 14 years after all, but didn't find them; the Chinese did in 1959 IIRC).
 
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