WW2 TL Poll: Axis USSR or Japan Whipping?

[okmangeez]

College life is great.

A lot of free time and going to history classes has inspired me, huzzah.

So which TL is more interesting?

Operation Pike (the British-French operation to bomb Soviet oil fields to cripple the Soviet economy and slow the German oil flow) actually goes forward and the bombers strike the oil fields instead of just flying over the oil fields and intimidating the Soviets.

OR

After the rejection of Operation Roundup (proposed Allied invasion of France during 1942), General Marshall manages to convince Roosevelt that a "Japan-First" strategy will allow the United States to focus on one front at a time, give experience to the new recruits, and invade mainland Europe after the Japanese are thoroughly beaten (He did suggest it in OTL, but Roosevelt rejected it).

 

[KuboCaskett]

I pick Pike since the Soviets being more aligned with the Germans could make WWII far more expansive (and costly) than OTL's; though Imperial Japan's role could be a wildcard for as far as I'm concerned.

 

[okmangeez]

I pick Pike since the Soviets being more aligned with the Germans could make WWII far more expansive (and costly) than OTL's; though Imperial Japan's role could be a wildcard for as far as I'm concerned.

Fair enough. Churchill won't even need to plan Operation Unthinkable. It would already be happening...

 

[okmangeez]

Shameless bump.

 

[Joe_Ladder]

I wonder if economic integration between Germany and USSR can proceed fast enough to make even Hitler think twice about doing anything stupid.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I wonder if economic integration between Germany and USSR can proceed fast enough to make even Hitler think twice about doing anything stupid.

Hitler wasn't sure about the need to invade the USSR until the Romanian ultimatum in August 1940 when they grabbed more than what had been agreed on in their pact, plus various disagreements on economic issues. Prior Babarossa was a contingency plan. So long as the Allies bomb the USSR and bring them into the conflict prior that should butterfly away disagreements that led to Barbarossa. Really all economic integration would mean for such an 'alliance' would be the Soviets giving Germany a bunch of raw materials on credit not to be paid back until after Britain is defeated. Given that the Soviets would likely be invading the Middle East to take out the bomber bases, the Brits might be out of the war pretty soon to try and save their Empire.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa#German_invasion_plans

In the middle of 1940, following the rising tension between the Soviet Union and Germany over territories in the Balkans, an eventual invasion of the Soviet Union seemed to Hitler to be the only solution.[49]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany–Soviet_Union_relations_before_1941#August_tensions

 

[lukedalton]

i go for operation Pike, after all we can have a real total bad guy vs decent guy war

 

[okmangeez]

Hmm. This is certainly turning out to be interesting.

Still a day or two left to vote!

 

[Oldbill]

Pike. I like to imagine the IJN pulling a series of PHesque raids on the KM and Soviets. You've got a HUGE amount of latitude in this sort of TL, Japan as an ally, China as an enemy or an ally, all of Europe against Germany and the Soviets, man the world is your oyster with this one. And since you have access to a decent college library, you can do the research to keep it from being a wank. Take your time with it, this could be really good.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I voted Pike too because that TL offers a lot more interesting avenues; Japan first, never mind that FDR would never go for it, really is just OTL, but faster in the Pacific and no A-bomb perhaps with greater Soviet conquest in Europe. As it was despite Europe first there were still a lot of men in the Pacific (though a lot of wasted effort that dragged out that conflict) and making that a priority doesn't really get you that much as it took a while to build up the necessary logistics and naval forces to be successful; prioritizing it doesn't really make naval construction any faster. Perhaps you could have them slack on LL to free up shipping for a faster Pacific, but that is a theater that everyone knew could coast until Germany was taken down, as it was the biggest threat. Now a USSR fighting alongside the Axis offers up huge butterflies and multiple potential scenarios that would be highly interesting, including a potential Nazi double cross.

 

[AYC]

Stalin and Hitler never trusted each other, and the latter wanted his Lebensraum. Any alliance between the two is a ticking time bomb, as OTL demonstrates.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Stalin and Hitler never trusted each other, and the latter wanted his Lebensraum. Any alliance between the two is a ticking time bomb, as OTL demonstrates.

Not necessarily; IOTL the Soviets never fought the British, while Hitler was specificially triggered to go to war by disagreements with Stalin that convinced him Stalin could not be trusted. Avoid those and war might be put off indefinitely...or at least until Britain is defeated.

 

[okmangeez]

Not necessarily; IOTL the Soviets never fought the British, while Hitler was specificially triggered to go to war by disagreements with Stalin that convinced him Stalin could not be trusted. Avoid those and war might be put off indefinitely...or at least until Britain is defeated.

Mmm. Operation Torch will most likely change the whole perspective of the Nazi-Soviet relations. With the UK-France publicly attacking the USSR, Stalin might just jump into the same ship as Hitler and hope for the best. Of course, Hitler will probably have mixed feelings, but I do expect him to invade the USSR, even if its a bit later.

 

[KuboCaskett]

Mmm. Operation Torch will most likely change the whole perspective of the Nazi-Soviet relations. With the UK-France publicly attacking the USSR, Stalin might just jump into the same ship as Hitler and hope for the best. Of course, Hitler will probably have mixed feelings, but I do expect him to invade the USSR, even if its a bit later.

The same might apply to Stalin who also doesn't trust Hitler in the slightest and probably will plan to backstab the other Axis powers once the latter gets weakened by the Allied war effort.

 

[thaddeus]

always interested in what the Soviets would actually DO? some of the more informed members here seem to think very little?

not straying too far from OTL actions, and considering Soviet oilfields in Caucasus have been attacked, might have Germans in Syria and Iraq and the Soviets in Iran?

not clear where Japan stands in this scenario? they have little to no economic value to Germany or USSR, Stalin only wants them in China to extent they keep the country divided.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

always interested in what the Soviets would actually DO? some of the more informed members here seem to think very little?

not straying too far from OTL actions, and considering Soviet oilfields in Caucasus have been attacked, might have Germans in Syria and Iraq and the Soviets in Iran?

not clear where Japan stands in this scenario? they have little to no economic value to Germany or USSR, Stalin only wants them in China to extent they keep the country divided.

According to Wikipedia's article on Pike the Soviets planned to attack Iran and Turkey to get at Iraq and Syria where the bomber bases were. They'd try and shut down the bombers at their source and probably not coordinate with Hitler at all. Not sure if they will start talking seriously about a deal, because if this all goes down before September then there is not even an Axis yet, so perhaps there is room to work out a deal. Like the Italians the Germans might let the Soviets base air units in Britain to bomb them at home, especially with their big Pe-8 bombers by night.

Historically the Russians did run campaigns in East Turkey and Northern Iran in WW1, so it wasn't like that was unheard of for them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucasus_Campaign
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/Campaña_del_Caucaso.png

The whole situation with Japan is up in the area if this happens before the Axis pact is even signed. It might turn into OTL Axis Pact including Stalin or might turn into something else where the Germans never really ally with the Japanese so don't support them in the war with the US. Stalin probably will not be fighting the US if he can help it.

 

[Whiteshore]

Maybe in the Pike scenario, Stalin carries out an anti-Semitic purge to seal his alliance with Hitler?

 

[thaddeus]

The whole situation with Japan is up in the area if this happens before the Axis pact is even signed. It might turn into OTL Axis Pact including Stalin or might turn into something else where the Germans never really ally with the Japanese so don't support them in the war with the US. Stalin probably will not be fighting the US if he can help it.

thought Japan wouldn't attack U.S. until Soviets were otherwise engaged? and in this case USSR not being invaded.

 

[Napoleon IV]

always interested in what the Soviets would actually DO? some of the more informed members here seem to think very little?

not straying too far from OTL actions, and considering Soviet oilfields in Caucasus have been attacked, might have Germans in Syria and Iraq and the Soviets in Iran?

not clear where Japan stands in this scenario? they have little to no economic value to Germany or USSR, Stalin only wants them in China to extent they keep the country divided.

Stalin would do as little as he possibly could. The Soviet Union was in no shape to fight a war (just look at what happened in Finland), and at any rate Stalin was always more interested in rebuilding the Red Army and making the Soviet Union stronger rather than fighting or helping Hitler at all (Stalin was famous for viewing alliances almost entirely through the lens of "what do I get out of it?"). I also suspect he wouldn't let the Wehrmacht pass through the Soviet Union, since Stalin's suspicion would make him afraid to let armed men go through his territory. In fact, as far as I know no foreign forces ever passed through the Soviet Union, and in fact Americans and Brits who ended up in Soviet-occupied areas often ended up in the Gulags.

 

[lukedalton]

Well, Stalin going through this and much earlier:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Soviet_Axis_talks
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Soviet_Axis_talks
Can have pretty important butterfly; take Benny for example...becoming an official or even semiofficial war patner of the Soviet Union will be impossible for both ideological, political and strategical reason, sure making business with them it's another thing...but a formal alliance or even a parallel war it's out of the question, even because there is a lot of conflict of interests between Moscow and Rome in the Balkan and middle-east.
Taking out Baku while probably not a knocking out move as hoped will cause to the Red Army a lot of problems (on top of the ones that they already have)