WW2 Question. . .

Art

Monthly Donor
Actually 2 or 3. Was a Halifax ministry possible under the May 1940 wartime conditions? And, if Halifax were to become minister, would he really have made peace with the Germans? The circumstances of such a peace would be disastrous in both the short and long term for Britain. It would probably result in a Cold War in which dozens of nuclear bombs would be dropped, and Europe flattened, before they learned about the long term effects of radioactivity.
 
Halifax was the main alternative to Churchill in the early war period, and he was considered to be the prime candidate to replace him in May 1940. He was certainly more open to peace than Churchill, but it wasn't necessarily that he wanted peace forever with the Germans. Many of the people who wanted peace viewed it as a way to buy time before re-entering into the war. Nazi Germany would probably still invade the USSR, and it still probably wouldn't survive in the long run. The Soviets would likely be more powerful in Europe in this scenario, as it would do even more of the heavy lifting in winning the war.

Btw, what you described isn't a cold war, as if dozens of nukes are being dropped, it is most decidedly hot.
 

Deleted member 1487

Actually 2 or 3. Was a Halifax ministry possible under the May 1940 wartime conditions? And, if Halifax were to become minister, would he really have made peace with the Germans? The circumstances of such a peace would be disastrous in both the short and long term for Britain. It would probably result in a Cold War in which dozens of nuclear bombs would be dropped, and Europe flattened, before they learned about the long term effects of radioactivity.
Depends on who you ask, but my read is that so long as Churchill was an option it is hard to see Halifax becoming PM, though he was the only option besides Churchill in May 1940. Halifax didn't really want the role as he expected that Churchill wouldn't last, so he could avoid being tarred with any fallout from Churchill's tenure and get acclaim from picking up the pieces. I think Halifax wanted peace, because he understood that victory would destroy the empire. I think he saw it as the least bad option given the situation and peace would allow Britain to recover and avoid financial ruin; they could seek accommodation with Hitler after the fact; Halifax was part of the Chamberlain's appeasement policy, so I think he thought he could make a deal with Hitler and step back from the continent and let Hitler deal with Stalin. If peace was made there wouldn't be an expectation of renewed war, rather Hitler would turn East and fight Stalin, while Britain picked up the peaces.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Depends on who you ask, but my read is that so long as Churchill was an option it is hard to see Halifax becoming PM, though he was the only option besides Churchill in May 1940. Halifax didn't really want the role as he expected that Churchill wouldn't last, so he could avoid being tarred with any fallout from Churchill's tenure and get acclaim from picking up the pieces. I think Halifax wanted peace, because he understood that victory would destroy the empire. I think he saw it as the least bad option given the situation and peace would allow Britain to recover and avoid financial ruin; they could seek accommodation with Hitler after the fact; Halifax was part of the Chamberlain's appeasement policy, so I think he thought he could make a deal with Hitler and step back from the continent and let Hitler deal with Stalin. If peace was made there wouldn't be an expectation of renewed war, rather Hitler would turn East and fight Stalin, while Britain picked up the peaces.
Hope springs eternal? After all, appeasement, especially in regards to Hitler, had been proven not to work and that when Hitler felt prepared enough, he'd violate whatever treaty terms he'd previously agreed to
 

Deleted member 94680

"Churchill told the War Cabinet that there would be no negotiated peace. Halifax had lost. A few weeks later, in July 1940, Halifax rejected German peace offers presented through the Papal Nuncio in Berne and the Portuguese and Finnish prime ministers.

Halifax wrote in his memoirs of an occasion during a short holiday in Yorkshire:


"One such interlude early in June 1940 is for ever graven into my memory. It was just after the fall of France, an event which at the time it happened seemed something unbelievable as to be almost surely unreal, and if not unreal then quite immeasurably catastrophic. Dorothy and I had spent a lovely summer evening walking over the Wolds, and on our way home sat in the sun for half an hour at a point looking across the plain of York. All the landscape of the nearer foreground was familiar—its sights, its sounds, its smells; hardly a field that did not call up some half-forgotten bit of association; the red-roofed village and nearby hamlets, gathered as it were for company round the old greystone church, where men and women like ourselves, now long dead and gone, had once knelt in worship and prayer. Here in Yorkshire was a true fragment of the undying England, like the White Cliffs of Dover, or any other part of our land that Englishmen have loved. Then the question came, is it possible that the Prussian jackboot will force its way into this countryside to tread and trample over it at will? The very thought seemed an insult and an outrage; much as if anyone were to be condemned to watch his mother, wife or daughter being raped." "

Wikipedia page on Edward Wood, 1st Earl of Halifax.

There is probably an element of revisionism, given the way things turned out OTL, but I'm not sure how set on 'surrender' Halifax was.

The earlier section on the same page referencing the 'Phoney War' also doesn't make Halifax seem like an appeaser:

"Again, on 1 November 1939, Halifax replied to an approach through Swedish channels that no peace was possible with Hitler in power. Even that aroused the wrath of Churchill, First Lord of the Admiralty, who sent a private note to Halifax rebuking him that such talk was dangerous. Halifax remained opposed to any hint of a compromise peace during the Phoney War."

 
One of the reasons Britain backed Poland in august 1939 is that it was clear the nazi government could not be trusted to keep any sort of agreement or promise. ie: the Munich Agreement guaranteed the national integrity of the remainder of Czechoslovakia, yet six months later the German Army invaded Bohemia & dissolved the Czech government, army, and nation. This was one of a long list of broken promises made by Hitler & his cronies.

Halifax saw this as clearly as anyone. Any treaty with Germany was not much more than a pretty bit of paper & such between Britain and Germany would at best be a temporary respite for Britain.

A second factor is economic. From the perspective of 1940 German economic domination of Europe has zero advantage for Britain. Restricted in its former European markets Britain loses a major profit center for its empires and nations product. Further it was thought a unified and German control European industry would bury Britain in the global economy. The possibility the nazi kleptocracy would not efficiently exploit its advantage was not understood then, and could not be counted on in any case.

A peace treaty gives Britain temporary respite. For Germany there are long term advantages. The end of the blockade gives access again to global resources. This includes favorable access to the imperial territories of the captive Dutch, Belgian, and French. The other neutral in Europe have a choice between agreeing to German diktate on economic matters, or face severe sanctions & possible invasion. Even during the depression the US had been tied to investment & export to Europe. If that is to be revived in any fashion access to US capitol would be the nazi price.
 
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