WW2: Poland Stops Germany In Their Tracks

I am curious if there is a viable scenario where the Poles resist Nazi aggression?

Don't forget the Wehrmacht and Red Army invaded Poland in September 1939 so that would be pretty damn hard for the Poles to defeat two major European land armies invading from either side of them.
 
Have France not persuade Poland not to mobilize as zero hour approached, due to the belief diplomacy was still an option. Have the Allies not withhold intelligence, particularly on the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. That alone could make a difference. Poland in OTL put up a great fight, destroying lots of German armor including an entire armored division, and shooting down 25% of the Luftwaffe. If the Poles had had additional troops and were ready and waiting in better-prepared positions, it would have gone far differently.

Then, you can tweak it further back. Poland had obsolete aircraft but some of the world's best-trained pilots. In OTL most of the German aircraft losses were from AA; had the Poles had a really effective air force, it would have been a serious problem. The Poles could have even attacked German cities. If the Poles had reinforced their border with Germany and established good supply lines, it would also have helped.

Basically, all the Poles would need to do is tie down the Germans, and suck them into a long, costly war of attrition rather than give them the quick victory they got in OTL. The Soviets would likely reconsider invading Poland when they saw the Germans getting bogged down and the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe getting chewed up. Britain and France would probably have eventually begun providing military support, which would begin to reverse the tide, and then intervene militarily, and once that happens if the Soviets hadn't invaded yet, they won't do it now. If they invaded before the British and French had a chance, there likely won't be any Western intervention, but the Soviets are going to experience what they did in the Winter War early, though Poland will eventually get defeated. It might be a more limited defeat though, with Poland forced to give up some parts of its territory but not get completely conquered and divided up. Assuming they didn't, it would be game over for Germany once Britain and France entered the fray.
 
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The Polish by 1939, are fucked. The Polish are in a bit of a pickle anyhow. Because of the land that they snuck from the Lithuanians after WW1, they have no relations to speak of with their most immediate Baltic neighbor. Due to continued disputes over territory, they have no ally to the south to count on. And to the East and West, they have two large, heavily militarized, nations eager to conquer the nation, and return it to its former state as conquered territory, be that by outright colonization, or puppetization, to the point where the national border is more de jure then de facto.

So from the get, Poland is just not in good straits. Relations with the French went down hill after the Sanation regime of Pilsudski, and the British had always been a bit apathetic to the well being and goings on of the Second Republic. That being said, the Polish military could have done fine, I believe against ONE of the armies. It is a given that Poland is not the favorite to win, but they do have a fearsome tenacity on the battlefield, which accompanied with competent leadership, can lead to vastly impressive feats. In 1920, the Bolsheviks were at the gates of Warsaw. By 1923, the Poles had regained most of the territory held in 1919, with the key exceptions of Minsk and the like. I believe that if Poland had been attacked by just the Germans, the war could have gone into a stalemate. If the Soviets had attacked, it could have gone just as well as it did in OTL, but I doubt they'll capture Warsaw. But with a POD in 1939, you cant change the invasion of Poland, other then making Stalin die, by an act of god, and having Molotov take over.
 
Poland has an extremely disadvantageous geographical location for a defensive war - on two fronts including front against German forces in East Prussia. Hold on, surrendering Warsaw, to a full mobilization of the French troops could, but everything is solved Stalin.
The sides of the one he was very careful, and if successful, the Polish army could not intervene in the war, on the other hand - he might be afraid that Poland capitulates and will support Germany in a future war with the USSR.
 
Originally posted by Enigmajones
That being said, the Polish military could have done fine, I believe against ONE of the armies.

I have my doubts. When the Soviets invaded Poland on September 17th, most of Polish Army was already defeated. Armies "Poznań" and "Pomorze" were surrounded after their counterattack at the Battle of Bzura. Warsaw was surrounded. Polish armies in the south were mostly defeated, bled out and in big part also surrounded. German forces reached Brześć (Brest) and Lvov. The chances to create the Romanian Bridgehead were relatively small, alhough IMHO still existed. Problem is I'm not sure how long the bridgehead would have been able to hold, even with German problems with logistics. IIRC Allied transports which were supposed to get to Poland through Romania were rather few. Anyway, without Soviet invasion Poland might have fought somewhat longer, inflict heavier losses on Germans, perhaps even create the bridgehead as the last redoubt, but would they have been able to hold it?
I believe Poland could have fought better (not braver - smarter) to make Germans pay much higher price that they did IOTL, although their losses, especially in equipment, were still significant. However it would have required better defensive plan, better communication and coordination between Polish armies, full mobilization in time...and Allied help. But the moment the Soviets move in, game is over.
Polish commanders IOTL had no illusions about their chances to defeat Germans on their own. They hoped they would be able to keep fighting until the western Allies intervene, as they had promised. They fought bravely, which proved to be not enough.
The best chance for Poland to stop the Nazis was, IMHO, in 1934 (preventive war) or, as the last chance, in 1938 - with full, unconditional support of Czechoslovakia against Germany.
 
A few factors which would give Germany a harder time:

-Extremely bad weather. Constant rain, low clouds, mists, floods. The Luftwaffe and panzers become much less useful.

-The war breaking out earlier. The question is: how?

-France charging into the Rhineland right after the war begins. Germany is forced to deploy most of its forces west before Poland is crushed. A stalemate ensues in the east. This requires a huge change in French military doctrine and mentality.

And, of course, no Soviet aggression which is pretty much a requirement for stopping Germany.
 
Would things have been different if France and Britain had told Poland beforehand that they weren't yet capable of a credible offensive?
 

Archibald

Banned
Molotov-Ribbentrop pact
France and Great Britain are a little more subtle with USSR, the pact is not signed late August. USSR doesn't invade Poland, only Germany.
Then France mount a very limited offensive, from the Maginot Line, against the weak layer of German division guarding the western frontier. Just to scare Germany into a two-front war (not to size Berlin nor even the Rhineland nor even Salzburg !)
Great Britain, for its part, limits itself to a) night bombing raids on Germany and b) a naval demonstration of force in the Baltic.

How realistic is that scenario ? Can the Polish resist ?
 
France and Great Britain are a little more subtle with USSR, the pact is not signed late August. USSR doesn't invade Poland, only Germany.
Then France mount a very limited offensive, from the Maginot Line, against the weak layer of German division guarding the western frontier. Just to scare Germany into a two-front war (not to size Berlin nor even the Rhineland nor even Salzburg !)
Great Britain, for its part, limits itself to a) night bombing raids on Germany and b) a naval demonstration of force in the Baltic.

How realistic is that scenario ? Can the Polish resist ?
USSR demanded the right to send troops to Poland, but the Poles, too, are not fools. Without this same USSR could not go to war with Germany.
 
Originally posted by Archibald
France and Great Britain are a little more subtle with USSR, the pact is not signed late August. USSR doesn't invade Poland, only Germany.
Then France mount a very limited offensive, from the Maginot Line, against the weak layer of German division guarding the western frontier. Just to scare Germany into a two-front war (not to size Berlin nor even the Rhineland nor even Salzburg !)
Great Britain, for its part, limits itself to a) night bombing raids on Germany and b) a naval demonstration of force in the Baltic.
The French launched a very limited offiensive - the Saar Offensive (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saar_Offensive). They marched about 5 km deep into Germany, suffered some losses from German mines and even more limited counterattack and withdrew. It had no influence whatsoever on the Polish campaign.
Efficiency of British air raids against Germany IOTL was limited by the fact that the Allies wanted to limit damage to civilian population and private propriety (despite Germans havng no such qualms in Poland); there were also practical reasons for their lack of bigger successes (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Heligoland_Bight_%281939%29
Naval demonstration in the Baltic would be problematic - the British ships would have to pass Skagerrak and Kattegat, then Danish straits - all of that very close to German naval and air bases - and then to operate on Baltic with no friendly base in sight (Polish naval bases were constantly attacked from air, land and sea, not to mention cut off from the rest of the country unable to provide logistics support for any larger task force; not to mention equipment of Polish Navy was different than equipment of RN)
 
Looking at Bekker's Luftwaffe Diaries, I think the conclusion is that Poland was doomed in 1939.

That USSR also wanted a piece of the action just made it worse.

Strategically, with Danzig hovering in the North, I think the conclusion is that it was hopeless a that time.

France coming to the rescue, I think, has been written about before.

Poland did not want to have USSR troops within the Polish borders and they told UK/France that in very clear language.

The only other option is if Poland would create an alliance with the Czech.

In essence, Poland and Czech says no thanks to whatever came out of Munich. Czech defences where not small scale. It was called the Eastern Maginot line after all.

Czech had some 38+ divisions in 1938 and a rather developed arms industry.

If Czech and Poland could have forced Hitler's hand in 1938, there would be a chance.

Did Poland and Czech really need UK/France in 1936-38? Good question. Not sure about that.

Would Hitler have invaded Czech in 1938? maybe he was crazy enough to do just that. And that would not be a great idea. Especially if Czech had an allianc with Poland.

... But, alas. Poland was just not so interested in anything really.

Ivan
 
Looking at Bekker's Luftwaffe Diaries, I think the conclusion is that Poland was doomed in 1939.

That USSR also wanted a piece of the action just made it worse.

Strategically, with Danzig hovering in the North, I think the conclusion is that it was hopeless a that time.

France coming to the rescue, I think, has been written about before.

Poland did not want to have USSR troops within the Polish borders and they told UK/France that in very clear language.

The only other option is if Poland would create an alliance with the Czech.

In essence, Poland and Czech says no thanks to whatever came out of Munich. Czech defences where not small scale. It was called the Eastern Maginot line after all.

Czech had some 38+ divisions in 1938 and a rather developed arms industry.

If Czech and Poland could have forced Hitler's hand in 1938, there would be a chance.

Did Poland and Czech really need UK/France in 1936-38? Good question. Not sure about that.

Would Hitler have invaded Czech in 1938? maybe he was crazy enough to do just that. And that would not be a great idea. Especially if Czech had an allianc with Poland.

... But, alas. Poland was just not so interested in anything really.

Ivan

If Poland and Czechoslovakia had gone to war with Germany together, Germany would be in great danger of the Czech and Polish armies making a huge pincer movement to cut off all of Silesia. After that they might then try to push north to the Baltic to cut off Pomerania.

Probably ASB I know but fun to think about...:cool:
 
It probably is ASB.

However, Just the constellation (no war) of Czech and Poland together in 1936/7 should make Hitler hesitate a bit.

Beck ought to have seen that going it alone was a silly thought.

What would it take ofr Poland to see the light and for the Czech to tell UK/France off?

Ivan
 
It probably is ASB.

What would it take ofr Poland to see the light and for the Czech to tell UK/France off?

Completely different diplomatic relations between countries. In 1920 Czechoslovakia took Polish side of Cieszyn. This of course didn't make them friends of Poland, and since Poland preferred strongman diplomacy, the matter wasn't put to rest. Czechoslovakia warmed their relations with Russia - maybe partially as a defence against potential Polish beligerency after 1926 - which of course was very badly seen by Warsaw. Then, after 1933, Poland had actually good relations with Germany - potential enemy of Czechoslovakia, and regarded the Munich conference as possibility to retake Cieszyn, and take other lands it believed it had claim on

For Poland to actually guarantee integrity of Czechoslovakia you would need either Beck to be a visionnaire who would put back all the grudges and actually believe that Czechoslovakia will not double-cross Poland (a scenario would be possible in theory, and I can easily see Polish diplomats being afraid of it, whether it was really possible or not). Or completely change their relations since 1920...
 
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Anaxagoras

Banned
If we assume a POD no earlier than August of 1939, I really don't see any way for Poland to prevail. But it could have done better than it did. If we suppose that, for whatever reason, the Soviets don't invade in the East and couple that with Polish forces being deployed in more advantageous positions rather than along the border, I think Poland could have held out for several more weeks and inflicted heavier losses on the Germans than they did IOTL.
 
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