WW2 - Part 2: A Change in Sides

Who would win?

  • Allies' technology defeat Soviet numbers

    Votes: 16 45.7%
  • Allies' technology blunts Soviet numbers, ceasefire

    Votes: 11 31.4%
  • Soviet numbers blunt Allies' technology

    Votes: 3 8.6%
  • Soviet numbers overwhelm Allies

    Votes: 5 14.3%

  • Total voters
    35
  • Poll closed .
Synopsis
The successful assassination of Hitler on 20 July 1944 leads to a ceasefire between Germany and the US and Great Britain, but the USSR demands the complete and immediate surrender of Germany. As German forces withdraw from occupied Western Europe, the US and GB call for a ceasefire on the Eastern Front but Stalin refuses. As the USSR continues to advance, a new alliance is formed between the US, GB, Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia and several other smaller countries; France declares its neutrality in this fight. By October 1944, the Allies are facing off against the USSR with the battle lines drawn in Eastern Europe (Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. While the Soviets have a significant advantage in numbers, the Allies are bringing better technology, air power, and the promise of a nuclear bomb.

Long Version
The assassination attempt against Hitler succeeds, and Operation Valkyrie is put into action. As quickly as they can, the new government reaches out to the Allies and requests an immediate cease fire. The U.S. and GB, now with a foothold in France and still concerned about the force ratios agree. Russia, on the other hand, smells weakness and decides to pour all of its resources into a drive toward Berlin.

Late July, key members of the New German Government (NGG) fly to London and meet with Churchill and Eisenhower to discuss terms. The NGG pledges to immediately withdrawal all forces from occupied France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, etc. and requests assistance in persuading Stalin to cease his assault in the east. All non-Soviet POWs are released and the NGG has requested Allied assistance in closing the concentration camps.

The German withdrawal, with persistent and invasive observation by the US and GB is proceeding faster than planned; the Germans are leaving behind anything they can not carry. The only violence is coming from partisans and other disgruntled civilians. The US finds itself spending more time protecting the German withdrawal than anything else; the Germans are under strict orders not to fire at civilians. By mid-August, the Germans have pull back behind their pre-1940 western borders. They are moving as much of their combat capable troops to the east in an attempt to block the Soviet advance. German forces in the east are conducting a fighting withdrawal, but are finding the heavy Soviet advance too much to handle; Soviet forces take Warsaw and Bucharest by the end of August. German soldiers are being summarily executed or used as slave labor battalions. There are several instances of Soviet troops using German POWs to clear minefields and other obstacles while under fire from defending German troops.

Roosevelt and Churchill send several emissaries to Stalin strongly requesting he stop his advance. All Allied (US & BG) assistance to the USSR is suspended pending the cessation of hostilities. The NGG is pleading with the US and GB to assist in stopping the Soviet onslaught. Patton, commander of the U.S. Third Army, is in charge of Allied Forces in occupied Germany. Patton, quickly develops a close relationship of the new head of the German Army, General Erwin Rommel. The two senior military officers establish a combined staff, without direct authorization from FDR, and begin planning for the defense of Germany from the USSR. On 4 September 1944, a flight of US P-51s escorting German bombers being redeployed from France flying over northern Germany are attacked by Soviet fighters. The U.S. issues a demarche against the Soviet Union and demands an immediate cessation of hostilities.

A U.S. special detachment of scientists and technical specialists who have been in Germany since the ceasefire are working with German scientists to understand their progress on a variety of programs including jet fighters, night vision, rocketry, and nuclear weapons. Also, in Frankfurt, the NGG, with observers from the US, GB, France and several other formerly occupied countries have convened a special tribunal to bring NAZI and SS leaders to justice. The Frankfurt Trials are an example of German efficiency; the executions of key leaders begins by the beginning of September.

On 7 September 1944, Stalin demands that Germany surrender all territory east of the Oder, and including Czechoslovakia, Austria, consent to occupation of Berlin by Soviet troops, and pay millions in reparations for the next 20 years. To emphasize its point, Soviet long range bombers launch a massive raid on Berlin. However, US fighters based in northern central Germany, and Luftwaffe fighters intercept the raid. Despite US attempts to force the raid back without the use of force, Soviet aircraft fire on the US and NGG aircraft; the resulting fight is an overwhelming victory for the US/NGG forces. Stalin declares that any military force that blocks his 'rightful' victory will be fired upon. He demands that the US and GB leave Germany or face the consequences.

The US increases the flow of troops and equipment into Germany; it had suspended this effort in mid-August, but resumes in full force on 10 September. The US Congress is up in arms about getting into a War with the USSR until communists in the US conduct a series of sabotages against factories throughout the continental US. These attacks, along with the bombing attack/derailment of a US troop train in France, result in the support of Congress for military action against the Soviets, should they attempt to invade past pre-1939 German borders. Since the Soviets are already occupying parts of East Prussia, this amounts to an authorization for war against the USSR. GB announces its support of the US and pledges to join in war against the USSR if it does not end its offensive. In London, the exile Polish Government also announces its support and claims that the occupying Soviet forces are conducting a systematic slaughter of Polish officials and resistance fighters. France announces that it will take no part in any conflict with the USSR, but will allow the US and GB to use its ports and rail system for transit. Despite this pledge, the Allied effort begins to transition its logistics efforts to Antwerp, Bremerhaven and Hamburg.

The Governments of Czechoslovakia (with the return of the Sudetenland, Austria (newly independent), and Hungary also announce their support of the Allies against the USSR. Romania, Bulgaria, and the Baltics are occupied and officially side with the USSR. However, nascent opposition movements are already active and fighting the Soviet occupation, albeit with limited success. These underground movements included former German soldiers who have evaded the Soviet troops and now bring combat experience and some weapons and equipment.

In the Pacific, Japan, reeling from the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo and seeing the removal of Germany from the war as a danger (allowing the US to focus on the war against it) opens peace talks with the US. However, these talks stall with the growing likelihood of conflict between the Allies (including Germany) and the USSR.

On 27 September 1944, the Soviet Army overruns a pocket of German resistance in East Prussia and executes all officers over the rank of Captain. It begins shipping the over 75,000 POWs to labor camps or uses them as fodder to reduce German obstacles and fortifications in their continuing assault eastward. However, German resistance overall is stiffening with the shortening of supplies lines and reinforcements of its forces formerly stationed in Italy and France. In addition, the Soviet supply lines are increasingly strained; reserves of both manpower and equipment are becoming dangerously low. On 1 October 1944, the Soviet Army goes into a tactical halt and issues a new surrender demand to the NGG. The demand calls for the immediate surrender of all German military forces, the withdrawal of the US and GB from Germany east of the Oder, the removal of the NGG, the establishment of a new German government (one friendly to the USSR) and the occupation of Berlin by Soviet troops; they set 15 October as the deadline.

Along the German 1939 border (minus East Prussia), the Allies (US, GB, Germany & Poland) are establishing a defensive line. They develop a defense in depth that extends into Poland and Czechoslovakia. GB is in the north, Germany is in the center and the US and Poland are in the south. Already, German armor and aircraft production lines are being repaired and improved by US and English technicians and resources. Several significant improvements in tank design and production are being implemented; the focus is on a highly capable, medium tank based on the Panzer Mk. V Panther, rather than on fewer heavier designs (such as the King Tiger).

By the beginning of October 1944, the lines between the USSR and Germany have become quite static with both sides frantically seeking to refit their forces and prepare for the conflict they know will resume shortly. On the Allies’ side, the US is moving as much of its armored forces as it can forward into Germany and is looking to leverage what it can from German technology, while simultaneously seeking to reinvigorate the German production facilities. In some instances, experienced US tank crews from North Africa are using new or refitted German vehicles. The British, while less likely to use German equipment, are using what they can to improve their own equipment. Jet aircraft production by the three major allies (US, GB and Germany) is ramped up, with the ME-262A being incorporated into the US Air Corps and the Royal Air Force.

On the other side, the Russians are rushing newly produced armor and artillery to the front and are massing what aircraft is available in what it knows will be a desperate fight in the skies.

Back in the US, the scientists of the Manhattan Project are making great strides with the addition of numerous German scientists, including Kurt Diebner and Werner Heisenberg. As a result of the sudden influx of new scientists (and differing perspectives), the Project is expected to have a test weapon by the start of 1945.

At 5 am on 13 October 1944, the Soviet Red Army launches a surprise attack across the entire front, with a weighted strike aimed at the boundary between the German Wehrmacht and the British Army in western Poland. The sudden attack on the poorly coordinated boundary allows a Soviet Tank Army to penetrate the front and make good penetration; the Soviets move to reinforce this success by sending an additional two armies to exploit the widening gap. By 22 October 1944, the Soviet Armies have advanced more than 50 miles past the initial line of defense and have both inflicted and sustained terrible losses. Allied aircrews have been flying virtually non-stop bombing missions, particularly targeting the leading armored formations and the more vulnerable supply chains.
 
Sorry, but this is fully ASB. There is no way that the Allies will accept a cease fire with the Germans at this point, nor that they will expect Stalin to abide by it at even less taht they go to war against the SU over Germany.
 
This is all rather implausible as part of the allies agreement was no peace short of unconditional surrender. Not to mention Churchill wasn't on solid enough ground to go to war with Stalin and if FDR wouldn't go to war with the Soviets over half the stuff they did in the wrap up they wouldn't over some insulted germans. I could also point out that Stalin wasn't this aggressive when diving up the borders after the war ended and he was on better footing then. Really this does push my suspension of disbelief a bit much.
 
It seems every Valkyrie ATL ends up with a new Germany allying with the West against the USSR. They never address the fact that both sides just got through dying by the millions, is exhausted, and now they have to fight the Soviet Union. Also, they all ignore the fact that the West would not forgive the Germans that quickly, especially considering Roosevelt's still alive and if you've seen his plans for what to do to Germany...

And point number 3, the Soviets ain't comic book villians who exist solely to combat the West.
 
Here's a possibility to make this less ASB.

At some time during (say) 1942, some of the Russian spies in teh UK/USA have a crisi of conscience (they are now spynig on countries allied with and helping Russia). As a result, the spy system is compromised.

Since they need the USSR to keep fighting, the system isnt made public or broken, but is carefully suborned, the British doublcross system expanding to include soviet spies. While much legitimate information is passed through, critical items like atomic secrets are blocked or misleading.

When the German surrender to the West happens, and the Russians keep going, the Germans give out all the data they have on Russian atrocities (Polish ones in particular). This is given great publicity by Churchill (who doesnt trust Stalin) and Roosevelt (who can see the election looming up), and this is then enhanced by a revelation of the soviets spying on their allies. Granted, the reason is most likely to persuade Stalin to calm down so something can be negotiated - they dont want to go to war against Russia.

However if Stalin keeps shooting at and killing allied soldiers, this is going to go downhill fast, and could quite easily lead to fighting growing and simply turning into a war.

With no more lend-lease, plus fighting the Allies as well as Germany (even if France tries to sit it out) the Russians dont have a chance, really. Problems of fighting in the winter in eastern Europe would probably stop or slow the allies till spring 1945, but after that...especially since the bomb will be ready in the summer.
Dont expect any useful help from German scientsist on the bomb, they were way off target. Also the allies are fine with their tech lead in most areas.
 
The Soviets as many believe wrent just a tide of men and machines. How are the allies going to deal with the IS-3?
 
As proved by the Germans in 1940 excelllent anti-tank guns don't equal excelllent tanks.

Ahem.

From the article:
Nuclear Tests

Mk 3 Centurion Type K,British Army number 06 BA 16, later devolved under Contract Demand 2843 to the Australian Army, who gave it registration number 169041, was involved in a nuclear blast test at Emu Field in Australia in 1953.

It was placed about 500 metres (1,600 ft) from the device being detonated and left with the engine running. Upon return to the tank for subsequent examination it was found to have been pushed away from the blast point by about 2 metres (6.6 ft) and that its engine had stopped working only because it had run out of fuel. Antennas were missing, lights and periscopes were heavily sand blasted and the cloth mantlet cover was heavily carbonised but the tank was able to be driven away from the site. Had the tank been manned, it is unlikely that the crew would have survived due to the shock wave created by an atomic blast.

169041, subsequently nicknamed The Atomic Tank, was later used in the Vietnam War and is now located at Robertson Barracks in Palmerston, Northern Territory. Although other tanks were subjected to nuclear tests, 169041 is the only tank known to have withstood atomic tests and subsequently gone on for another 23 years of service, including 15 months on operational deployment in a war zone.[16][17]
 

CalBear

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The Soviets as many believe wrent just a tide of men and machines. How are the allies going to deal with the IS-3?

Typhoons, P-47, F4U, etc. with Tiny Tim 11.75" rockets?

Each rocket had a 500 pound AP Bomb as a warhead. Make a hell of a mess of any tank out there. Probably be a mission kill (if not a full kill)against A Challenger II or Abrams M1A4 today.
 
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