WW2 over Carpathian Ruthenia ?

After the breakup of Austria-Hungary at the end of WW1, tensions between Romania and Hungary were at an all-time high, culminating with the Hungarian-Romanian war of 1919 and the defeat of the Hungarian Soviet Republic and the occupation of Budapest by the Romanian Army. During this time, Romanian troops occupied Carpathian Ruthenia on behalf of Czechoslovakia until August 1919.

In October 1921, as it seemed that former Habsburg Emperor Karl might succeed in regaining his Hungarian throne, Romanian ministers declared that such a move would be regarded as a cassus belli.

Therefore, a conflict between Romania and Hungary in the 30s is not entirely ASB.

In March 1939, with the breakup of Czechoslovakia, Carpathian Ruthenia declared its independence as the Republic of Carpatho-Ukraine. The same day, Hungary invaded. Some fighting between Czech units and Ruthenian irregulars against the Hungarians took place, but these were massively outnumbered and forced to flee to Romania.

Carpatho_Ukraine_March_1939.png


So, what if on March 15 or as late as the early hours of the 16th, the Ruthenians ask Romania for help ? Naturally, a different Romanian leadership would be required in order for this to work, but it's nothing a well placed POD can't solve, such as a different personality of King Carol II or a failure of the national peasants party to win elections, leading to a continuation of King Michael's rule, with real power in the hands of liberal prime minister Bratianu, or even something else entirely.

Regardless of the exact POD, assume we have a situation where the Romanian leadership decides that Hungarian expansion has to be stopped, that Germany would not risk war over it and, even if it did, it would be quickly defeated by the French, leading to a better future for Europe. In the early hours of March 16th, the Romanian King crosses the border into Carphato-Ukraine and is elected king in the small town of Tiacziw just across the border (thus creating a personal union of the 2 countries). At the same time, Romanian army units start pouring into Ruthenia and engage advancing Hungarian columns before these have a chance to occupy the capital of Chust.

While the fighting would be pretty small scale and confused, the very poor quality of the Hungarian army (compared to the only poor quality of the Romanian army), plus the fact that the Hungarians only had ammo for about a day of sustained fighting, would eventually lead to a situation where the Hungarians are repulsed.

So, assuming this or something similar happened, what would Hitler do ? Would he go to war over the issue ? If so, what would the Allies and Poland do ? And since this is only March 1939, can we expect a German defeat or would they still occupy and/or dominate mainland Europe ?

Carpatho_Ukraine_March_1939.png
 
Well I guess we only like common WWII POD's on this board.

To be honest this is totally new territory to me and I'll need to do a bit of research. That being said here are my initial observations.

-I think you're initial POD of having a different Romanian government in power is feasible. Is there something to be gained by Romania in having an independent/subservient Carpatho-Ukraine? Other than sticking a finger into Hungary's eye?

-The obvious key to this scenario is Hitler's response. The biggest thing here would be oil IMO as the fields at Ploesti are crucial to the Nazi War machine. To be honest I could see him taking two courses of action.

Pragmatic: Hitler sides with Romania and orders Hungary to back down hoping to at very least keep the oil flowing from Ploesti for the time being until more preparations can be made for war.

Daring:Flushed with confidence and fearful of Romania growing closer with the Allies, Hitler opts to intervene on the side of Hungary committing troops to the region with the goal of not only annexing Carpatho-Ruthenia but also establishing a pro-German government in Romania to keep the oil flowing.

Assuming he takes the latter course of action I don't see the Allies getting involved right away...that being said once German/Hungarian forces cross into Romania proper...THEN I think the allies get involved. Though to what extent is questionable. Also, Hitler might agree in this scenario to some kind of partition deal with the USSR regarding Romania. If such a partition is extended to Poland, the Baltics, and Finland in TTL you might see the Allies begin bombing Baku and making the war a whole lot more interesting...
 
Is there something to be gained by Romania in having an independent/subservient Carpatho-Ukraine? Other than sticking a finger into Hungary's eye?


A lot of the Romanian foreign policy in the interwar years was based on 3 things:

1. Containing Hungary (hence the Little Entente Alliance with Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia)
2. Alliance with France and Poland
3. Collective security through the League of Nations


Here, the LoN has obviously failed and Hungary is looking pretty menacing. Securing Carpatho-Ukraine also grants a lot more common border with Poland, thus creating a more advantageous position from which to fight a hypothetical war against Germany & friends.

Also, since this is just after Hitler broke the Munich agreement, I doubt the French and British would respond kindly to him invading one of their key allies in eastern Europe, although anything is possible.


Is there been any TL written about the Allies launching Operation Pike ? I'm seriously thinking of writing one if I quit my stupid job, and would be interested to read what other people thought on the subject.
 

MSZ

Banned
Okay, let's assume that a different Romanian leadership not only does prepare for a takeover of Transcarpathia, but is willing to do so.

That would technicaly make Romania a German ally. It would be moving in armed forces to an independent state in order to annex territory. That it would do so just to prevent Hungary from doing the same would not change the perception of events. The Little Entente has just been broken by one member going after another's territory.

France would obviously not be happy about it. Neither would Poland. IIRC there was some kind of understanding between Germany and Hungary that the latter would be allowed to take the territory to prevent it from becoming a centre for Ukrainian nationalists. If Hitler can get a Romanian promise that it would do the same, he would have no reason interfere. If he can't, he could decide to use the opportunity to provoke a war between Hungary and Romania - at the time he was already itching for one to start. Question remains who would be his first target - neither Fall Weiss or Fall Gelb are ready yet, there would have to be an improvisation. Hungary too wouldn't allow the Wehrmacht on its territory, more likely it would bitterly withdraw from Transcarpathia, unless the Romanians would do something stupid, like going against Hungary proper - then all bets are off.

In my opinion, this would be yet another situation where Hitler would want war, but be denied it. He would want to go against Romania, but Hungary wouldn't let it. Poland would declare partial mobilisation, but not act hostile. France would do nothing. Romania takes Transcarpathia, Hungary withdraws, Romania becomes internationally isolated.
 
This is actually a very interesting POD I think, but not for the obvious reasons. Personally I don't think Hitler actually cared who controlled that piece of land. Hungary or Romania, it's all the same to him, so in that sense I don't think it has the potential to trigger WW2 faster.

The way I see things go down if Romania did decide to contest the Hungarian invasion is that the Hungarians are forced to back down and go to the original border and Ruthenia becomes a Romanian protectorate. I don't actually think they will try to annex it outright since there are very few if any actual Romanians living in that area.

What is interesting about the POD is what it says about the Romanian government, would this government accept the Second Vienna Award after going to war with Hungary over Ruthenia, I think the answer is probably not. Hungary has no chance of actually taking the territory given to it in the Second Award by force, especially not after they were beaten back in Ruthenia, without the German army. That said the Second Award might be butterflied all together because of the war.

Another interesting potential butterfly is what this POD does when related to the ceding of Bessarabia by Romania to the USSR due the the R-M pact, which in my opinion is one of those small What Ifs that can have huge effects. What If after beating back Hungary in Ruthenia and seeing the USSR stumble through the Winter War with Finland, the Romanian government decided to not cede Bessarabia and digs in and fights.

Obviously the USSR would almost certainly win such a war, but given the logistics involved and the fact that the USSR wasn't expecting Romania to actually fight, it could last a 4-8 weeks, maybe even a bit more with a few minor PODs relating to the Romanian army.

The real question is how will Hitler handle such a war, because the German army needs the Ploiesti oil fields, so he can't let the russians bomb them. Another interesting question is what would happen if after a long slog through Bessarabia Stalin doesn't stop at the Prut river, thinking that after losing so many men in Bessarabia and Finland the USSR deserves more territory. At that point Hitler would almost certainly have to do something, because he can't let the oil fields be captured/destroyed by the soviet army.
 
Interesting scenerio.

Well just recently I read somewhere that actually Ruthenians after proclaiming independence (or shortly before - after Slovak proclamation??) were requesting incorporation into Romania as autonomous region. Romania didn't answer.
But you have point in history when there was such a possibility.

Romanians mobilized on Hungarian border in middle of March 1939 as to respons to Hungarians massing on Czechoslovak border but because Czechoslovakia fall apart, they didn't act.
It is very possible that Czechoslovak 12th division in region would cooperate.

Anyway, these would probably butterfly away Hungarian-Slovak small war which was about most eastern Slovak territories.
Also it would create Romanian-Slovak border. Which would be for Slovaks very convenient.

Is little know fact that during the war Croatia, Romania and Slovakia cooperated more or less against.... Hungary. Actually Germans had to push on them to stop these activities as they were recreating smaller form of "Little entente".
 
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