WW2 or prior, what does it take to thoroughly beat Britain?

It will do the Germans a huge amount of good compared to OTL. Forcing the British to react is a partial victory, because it consumes resources and hurts logistics. There are a lot of things that will help.

1) The UK will likely reinforce the English coast with extra land units. The British had an irrational fear of invasion based on actual threat levels. While not decisive, it helps the Germans in small ways by taking pressure off the Germans and increasing the German land reserve.

2) The British will still want something like the Dover Barrage in the English Channel. Since it is a lot farther from Cherbourg to England than Calais to England it will both consume more resources and be less effective. Small German Win.

3) Cherbourg is the Eastern most port the Entente will be able to use. More ships need, more rail cars needed. These assets will have to be stripped from somewhere, and this will hurt something else.

4) If the Cherbourg Barrage, or wherever chosen, is not strong enough, the U-boats in Germany will use the English Channel not the North Sea to get on station. This means more U-boats on station at any given time.

5) Air bases closer to England.

6) More agricultural land controlled by Germany. A little more food for Germany, a little less for France.

7) Industry - More areas for Germany to loot.

8) Britain may move a squadron of Battleships to Southern England. Less forces at Scapa Flow or some other theater.

Now none of this has to be a war winner, but it could be. Yes the English will react and counter some of the effects, but it will be at least a minor help and will extend the war. Even a very efficient reaction will have a noticeable impact. A few % few infantry and artillery in France. Less supplies due to longer transport times. The extra ships required to react to the extra danger come from somewhere. A lot would depend on the exact details of how it plays out, but it would likely extend the war by at least a couple more months, and could even result in a cold peace/draw type scenario.

IMO, if Calais happens in the initial Race to the Sea, Gallipoli will be cancelled which will have profound effects on the war and the UK is likely to greatly over react (due to public fears) and keep a lot of extra forces in England. There is potentially a chain of effects which will make it radically harder for the Entente to win the war. WW1 is not like WW2 which was a blowout. In WW1, Germany barely lost, so it does not take a lot to tip the scale.

Well visualised!

In a war where in later years the combattants were racing each other toward collapse and revolution this is the sort of thing which can change the balances and win/lose the war.
 
A Dunkirk disaster, 80-90% of the BEF captured, plus no Churchill and a less war-freak British government might do the trick. The British people might exchange peace for their captured brethren.
 
Transylvania, with the exception of the Székely Land becomes part of Romania, which joins the customs union of the Habsburg federation and concludes long term contracts for the delivery of oil to the federation. The formerly Hungarian Burgenland, with a German speaking majority and adjacent to Austria, becomes part of Austria (as in OTL), other German majority areas become Austrian enclaves surrounded by Hungarian territory.

With Germany now being a parliamentary monarchy - a de facto democracy - Germans have now considerably greater control over their government than Austrians, and there is a growing demand in the Austrian population for an Anschluss to Germany (In OTL, the Austrian parliament declared Austria to be part of Germany soon after the Austrian emperor was deposed).

The Austrian emperor remains the head of state of the Habsburg federation, including Austria, but Austria becomes part of Germany, with German laws being valid, and Austrians voting for the Reichstag in Berlin. The German Mark becomes the currency of the Habsburg federation, whose member countries (with the exception of Austria), retain their national autonomy (including their own armies, police, judges, laws etc.)

Germany, the Habsburg Federation and Romania form a customs union, of which Serbia and Montenegro, already under Austrian economic control, also become members. Albania is dependent on protection by the Central Powers and also joins, as do Latvia and Estonia. Denmark joins for territorial concessions in Northern Slesvig, Ukraine for Eastern Galicia.
While exporting to this Mitteleuropäische Zollunion (Central European Customs Union, now comprising Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Denmark, Germany (including Austria, Lithuania and Luxemburg), Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Serbia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Ukraine) is attractive to any European country, most of them are afraid of the kind of control that a customs union brings. Therefore, a new entity is created, the Europäische Freihandelszone (European Free Trade Zone). Members of this zone and the members of the Central European Customs Union mutually abolish their tariffs, although there is no common policy in the European Free Trade Zone as far as customs towards third parties are concerned.

Sweden, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands and Switzerland join the European Free Trade Zone. Italy joins after buying Trentino for a billion Marks.

By 1924 the resulting economic boom in the Central European Customs Union leads to a shortage of labor. Germany facilitates immigration from other Customs Union countries and from Italy, Czechia soon follows suit. Poland passes similar laws in 1925, partly in order to replace workers that have migrated to Germany.
 
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So you envision that the Aus-Hun empire turns into the EU?
It is not quite as simple as that. For one thing the EU is a customs union, while in this timeline, we have a customs union (Mitteleuropäische Zollunion) surrounded by and integrated into a free trade zone (Europäische Freihandelszone). To describe the complete process would mean to repeat all my posts in this thread.

The Zollunion basically consists of Germany and its WW I conquests, Austria - Hungary (including a Poland that also includes formerly German Poznan / Posen) and countries on which the Central Powers can exert some pressure to join. This has a Germany at its core that is a parliamentary monarchy, like Britain. It is not exploitatory, and in its legislative assembly Germany can be outvoted by a combination of other countries. The countries of the surrounding free trade zone only give up their customs barriers towards each other and the Zollunion, without a common policy towards the outside.

It has taken me some posts already and will take a few more to arrive at the opening of the World War II equivalent, because I want a realistic (I hope) background for a Germany that is economically stronger than in OTL.
 
Germany, the Habsburg Federation and Romania form a customs union, of which Serbia and Montenegro, already under Austrian economic control, also become members. Albania is dependent on protection by the Central Powers and also joins, as do Latvia and Estonia. Denmark joins for territorial concessions in Northern Slesvig, Ukraine for Eastern Galicia.
While exporting to this Mitteleuropäische Zollunion (Central European Customs Union, now comprising Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Denmark, Germany (including Austria, Lithuania and Luxemburg), Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Serbia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Ukraine) is attractive to any European country, most of them are afraid of the kind of control that a customs union brings. Therefore, a new entity is created, the Europäische Freihandelszone (European Free Trade Zone). Members of this zone and the members of the Central European Customs Union mutually abolish their tariffs, although there is no common policy in the European Free Trade Zone as far as customs towards third parties are concerned.

Sweden, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands and Switzerland join the European Free Trade Zone. Italy joins after buying Trentino for a billion Marks.

With the disturbances in India during WW I being more serious than in OTL, the worries among the British in India about new uprisings after the war run even deeper. This is exacerbated by the fact that Germany is an unbeaten power, that is still suspected of wanting to cause trouble, together with the Soviets, although the democratically elected German government has absolutely no interest in doing so. In 1919, there is an equivalent to OTL's Amritsar massacre, with even more casualties, and an even greater disparity between the number of victims officially acknowledged by the British authorities and the number that results from an inquiry by the Congress party.

The inroad of the Afghan emir Amanullah Khan into British India in 1919 causes much greater difficulties for the British, since there are still more weapons among the Indian population, and the outrage about British behavior is even greater. Unrest continues for years and is a drain on British resources.

Britain's financial situation becomes worse because of greater debts to the US and because of France's increasing difficulties to repay its loans from Britain.

In 1926 France defaults on its debts to Britain, half a year later Britain defaults on its debts to the US, triggering an international financial and economic crisis.

The feeling to have been betrayed by the outside world, which is a common occurrence in any country in crisis, is much stronger in Britain in this TL than in OTL. The resulting hostility, exploited by Oswald Mosley (still in the Conservative Party) leads to large protectionist increases in tariffs, which results in similar measures in other countries, leading to a severe decline in international trade.

The countries of the European Free Trade Zone and the Central European Customs Union survive the crisis with relatively minor losses since their respective treaties keep them from putting up customs barriers against each other. The Central European Customs Union is also in a much better position to threaten to impose retaliatory tariffs, than any individual country, with the exception of the USA. France is less export - oriented than Britain or Germany and withstands the crisis relatively well, too. The USA has more difficulties, but with its own huge domestic market, it is still vastly better off than Britain, which is the worst hit of all the major economies.
 
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In 1929 various countries try to get out of the mess the general 'beggar thy neighbor' policy has brought them by forging new economic unions. France tries to create a 'Latin Economic Union' with Italy, Belgium, Spain and Portugal. The negotiations with Italy succeed and result in a free trade agreement with France, although Italy retains its membership in the European Free Trade Zone. Negotiations with Spain and Portugal stall.

There are negotiations between Belgium and France for a customs union, but they are forestalled by Germany's offer of large credit-free loans to Belgium in exchange for Belgian membership in the European Free Trade Zone. Credit is somewhat hard to get in an economic crisis and the offer is taken up, with Belgium becoming a member of the Free Trade Zone in 1931.

The British government tries to get out of the crisis with the creation of Imperial Preference, just as in OTL, but the negotiations fail for similar reasons as in OTL. Winston Churchill, as in OTL, opposes Imperial Preference and favors free trade. The general disappointment with the outside world in Britain (the Dominions being a possible exception), cause new and severe protectionist measures beyond those in OTL. They increase isolationism in the USA and economic difficulties in France and other countries. They also backfire in Britain: with imports being made more expensive by increased tariffs, there are fewer people in Britain who want to buy foreign currencies that would be needed to pay for these imports. This results in a strengthening of the pound, which in turn makes British exports more expensive in those countries whose currencies have lost in value in relation to the pound.
 
As Chancellor of the Exchequer in a Conservative Cabinet, Oswald Mosley recommends restriction of imports from within the Empire, mainly referring to manufactured goods from India and Hong Kong, and even dismantling factories in India. His ideas are quickly rejected by the prime minister and his cabinet colleagues, but they are leaked, and the news makes its way to India, where mass protests follow.

Mosley is forced to resign, his place is taken up by Winston Churchill. He tries to reverse the protectionist tariffs, but is alone in his struggle and does not succeed.

The German government, a coalition of Social Democrats, Catholics of the Center Party and Liberals, tries to win France as a member of the European Free Trade Zone. Although the economic situation in France is not critical, it is difficult for the French government to get credit after defaulting on its WW I loans. Thus Germany offers multi-billion mark loans at market rates from the time before the crisis of 1926.

This leads to an outcry on the far right in Germany, which claims that the governing coalition wants to doubly betray Germany: on the one hand by demanding less interest than the current market rates, and on the other by inviting a heavily industrialised and populous nation into the Free Trade Zone. The far right claims that the lower wages prevalent in France, combined with its modern machinery, will drive German products from the markets. Of course, there are many countries in the European Customs Union with lower wages, Albania, Serbia, Slovakia and Ukraine among them. There are also industrialised nations like Czechia, Switzerland or Belgium in the Customs Union or Free Trade Zone, but none is a large country and traditional enemy like France. Therefore the protests against the government's plan find some support in the German population, but the plan is carried out nonetheless.
 
True, but now German guns cover the French side of the narrows which inhibits British mining efforts, supports German mine-sweeping and keeps RN warships at bay, supporting transits through the narrows by German ships..
Question:
Do you want to know how many ships or boats travelling through the English Channel the German coastal guns sank throughout WW2. :)

Answer: None

The English Channel is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. On either side of this point the coast on both sides falls away, rapidly increasing the distance involved.

The maximum range a ship at sea has ever been hit by a shell is less than 15 miles.

The claim that coastal guns could close the channel to the RN in WW2 is a fantasy
 
I was talking about WW1, not WW2, nor did I say that coatal guns will close the channel.

IOTL in Dec 1917, the German position on the Belgian coast had 5 x 15 inch, 4 x 12 inch, 24 x 11 inch, 10 x 8 inch and 19 batteries of 6 and 4 inch guns. Britain finally got on top of the German position on the Belgian coast with mines laid out at 20 miles from these guns along the entire coastal position AND a very extensive mine barrage laid at different depths between Cap Griz Nez and Folkestone to close the strait to uboats.

Imagine if you will that these guns were clustered between Calais and Boulogne where the 20 mile containment mines would be. My guess is about midway in the strait, giving the Germans possesion of any sea lanes on the French side. Also where would the multi-depth mine barrage that OTL was laid between Cap Griz Nez and Folkestone to close the strait to uboats be laid if the French side of the strait was under German guns out to about 20 miles?

As for offensive operations, as you say the strait is 21 miles wide, so a German destroyer at Calais would only have to steam for an hour to get amongst the ships anchored behind the Goodwin Sands. What`s more about half of such an approach and egress would be covered by coastal gunfire which would limit pursuit. IOTL the distance from Ostend to the Downs anchorage was 62 miles, or about 2 or 3 hours steaming for a destroyer, leaving plenty of time to get caught on the way home which is why it wasn`t done IOTL.
 
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