WW2 no Mediterranean theater

I doubt that the British would allow the Italians to import unlimited amounts of oil and raw materials to pass on to the Germans: they’d know how much Italy needed for itself, and would only let them have that much, with a small surplus to allow for growth.

This hits it squarely. Even in early 1940 the blockade was taking effect with a neutral Italy, and Norway, Sweden, Greece, Yugoslavia, Rumania, Truky, & USSR. One of the rational Mussolini used for his DoW on France and Britain inJune 1940 was the negative economic effects of the import quotas or restrictions Britain assigned to neutrals, and its enforcement. Even that early the NavCerts system, was working well enough to take notice, and Anglo/French warships inspecting violators they ran down were picking off contraband cargos.

So yes the Italians can make profits selling Germany war critical resources, but no, neither they nor the other neutrals are a wide open conduit. And, the conduit constricts as Britan becomes more efficient at running the blockade of Europe and accquires the full assistance of the US 1940-41.
 
Just so we are clear, this is assumes Italy is neutral and what are the effects correct? Sorry for being obtuse, I'm tired this morning.
 
Just so we are clear, this is assumes Italy is neutral and what are the effects correct? Sorry for being obtuse, I'm tired this morning.

no, I believe we are left with several options

The most obvious and the most likely is Italy staying neutral.

Second would be Italy entering the war but the British and the French stomp on them and overrun Libya quickly.

Third and least likely would be an Axis curbstomp where the Italians take Malta and Egypt in 1941-2

with the result everyone is talking past one another?

my speculation was that even with a neutral Italy (and to stay as closely to historical as possible for Spain to remain neutral as well) that even then the Med (likely?) does not remain quiet?

the German u-boat war could encompass it thru southern France and/or the Balkans will face some conflict(s)
 
no, I believe we are left with several options


The most obvious and the most likely is Italy staying neutral.

Second would be Italy entering the war but the British and the French stomp on them and overrun Libya quickly.

Third and least likely would be an Axis curbstomp where the Italians take Malta and Egypt in 1941-2

with the result everyone is talking past one another?

Yes course. A requirement for any good discussion.

The first:
The most obvious and the most likely is Italy staying neutral.
is really the only one that creates 'No Mediterranean Front'. Even then things may go pear shaped in the Balkans or south France later in the war.

In the case of "over running Lybia quickly" it just moves the Med front north sooner, to France, Italy, the Balkans. Still major campaigns.

For the third option it is still in the Allies interest to reenter the Med if for no more than a diversion. There are other strategic reasons that can be debated as well.
 
If Rommel is made commander of a panzer corps in Barbarossa in this scenario, which I think it likely given his career up to that point, I wonder which of the eight or so OTL ones he replaces and whether it makes a difference. Some of the battles in Russia were close enough that an additional division or two would have made a difference, but I think the real game changer would have been additional air assets, particularly transport aircraft.

I think it would. Rommel wasn’t a tactical super genius, but he was one of the best generals at moving men quickly and motivating men in the war. Russia could end up in China’s shoes against Japan if Leningrad and/or Moscow falls of beat Germany back at times the next two years, but taking such a resource hit in ‘41 they might be fighting over Ukraine come 1945.
 
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