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WI Japan either found ways of obtaining access to China's raw materials and markets in ways that were mutually beneficuak
OR Japan finds of getting enough of its way in China without being so provocative to the US
So Japan does not attack the US or French or Dutch territories.
How much difference does this make to the War in Europe?
Plainly if it prevents US involvemnet this is massive. But what if some time in 1942 FDR manages to persuade a rather more divided US to fight after enough Atlantic incidents.