Let's say Central Powers win in late Summer of 1918, as a result of multiple POD's( no USW, they go on with their tank projects, more competent Austria post-1916). They enforce fairly cliched peace treaty on France, with France having to surrender Briey-Longwy and Nancy-Moselle department, aka remainder of Alsace, and having to pay big sums in reparations, getting their army limited to 130.000, etc. , with Belgium remaining de-jure independent with Albert as head of state, but de-facto puppetized through economic and then later military treaties. In Africa, Germany gets all of their colonies restored, except for Sudwestafrika, which stays South African, and Belgium cedes to them Kongo. However, on Pacific, German colonies are divided between Australia and Japan. On the East, Bucharest treaty and Brest-Litovsk treaty stands and is recognized by Whites after Germany helps them to win RCW and restore Provisional Government. Few years later, Austria-Hungary collapses, with Germany annexing Cisleithania sans Galicia, which is divided between Kingdom of Poland and Ukrainian State, while cutting Transleithania into a bunch of puppets.
Any idea, how WW2 would be looking in this world? I was thinking about writing a much more realistic Kaiserreich timeline, but I have doubt that Second Russo-French Entente would have an actual chance, even if they roll all of their sixes like Nazis OTL, and Britain joins them again.
Edit: Ottomans keep northern Syria, Iraq and Kurdistan. They go through turmoil, Kemal still comes to power, and new Turkish Republic remains German ally
Ignoring some France goes Nazi or the Third International are the Axis of WWII clichés happening for the sake of a cool story, from a realistic standpoint it's very likely that a Second World War would not have happened at all in a world where the Central Powers win, especially if the Whites win the RCW so it gets rid of the "Communists are the enemy of WWII" thing in this world.
France wouldn't go Nazi, Fascist, nor Communist, a Whites-ruled Republican Russia is unpredictable if it doesn't falls under warlordism and just becomes another Republic of China, what I'm interested in is how the Pacific War would occur since Japan would be arguably even more stronger.
In a scenario where Germany won WW1 in Kaiserreich-esque circumstances (via not launching unrestricted submarine warfare and therefore pissing off the Americans), how would alt-WW2 develop in a scenario where the Russians and French go revanchist and launch Round Two to gain revenge (assume the...
What do you think World War II would be like in world where Germany won WWI, assuming it sill happens? Point of divergences: no USW, so USA remains neutral and France surrenders in 1917 or 1918. Russia still goes communist (although probably more contained than in OTl - no Ukraine). I think...
There is a list of what I would like to know. Assuming that the Central Powers defeat the Entente in World War 1: · What alliances will be involved? · What tactics and strategies would be used by the opposing sides? · Who would win? The reason for this is because at first I...
In a world where the Central Powers were victorious and also get most of their claims and goals in a Versailles-like peace, how long could they stay dominant in Europe or other parts of the world? How long would Austria stay united, how long would their Colonies last? Would it just delay the...
Last time I posted a different Kaiserreich TL in which Britain remained neutral while the US entered the war on the side of the Entente and the war ended with the Central Powers emerging victorious here. Several members have agreed that the TL is quite plausible so I decided to go a little bit...
This may have been addressed elsewhere but it seems to be that its becoming common AH knowledge that a Central Powers victory in WW1 would not have been such a bad thing. Its obvious that the main reason for this persepective is that a Central Powers victory would likely have meant no Adolf...
It is really unlikely that WW2 would occur in CP victory universe. France has not any chances rise against Germany and hardly even willpower. Germany has all important mines and it can and want enforce peace terms. And French are pretty unwillingful to fight even if France goes totalitarian regime. France has already lost two wars against Germany in 50 years. It is not to take third round.
And Russia has even further problems. Even if Whites manage win RCW it is unab le create any unified regime. Only thing what White Generals agreed was kick Bolsheviks from power. If Whites win the war Russia pretty surely fall to warlordism.
And even if some government manage to be exist Russia is pretty weak without Ukraine and Caucaus.
And I am not sure if UK would side with Russia and France. Why it would? Yes, it didn't defeat Germany but it too didn't lost anything. So not such bitterness and revanchism there. Probably Germany and UK are able fix their relationships during 1920's.
Let's say Central Powers win in late Summer of 1918, as a result of multiple POD's( no USW, they go on with their tank projects, more competent Austria post-1916). They enforce fairly cliched peace treaty on France, with France having to surrender Briey-Longwy and Nancy-Moselle department, aka remainder of Alsace, and having to pay big sums in reparations, getting their army limited to 130.000, etc. , with Belgium remaining de-jure independent with Albert as head of state, but de-facto puppetized through economic and then later military treaties. In Africa, Germany gets all of their colonies restored, except for Sudwestafrika, which stays South African, and Belgium cedes to them Kongo. However, on Pacific, German colonies are divided between Australia and Japan. On the East, Bucharest treaty and Brest-Litovsk treaty stands and is recognized by Whites after Germany helps them to win RCW and restore Provisional Government. Few years later, Austria-Hungary collapses, with Germany annexing Cisleithania sans Galicia, which is divided between Kingdom of Poland and Ukrainian State, while cutting Transleithania into a bunch of puppets.
Any idea, how WW2 would be looking in this world? I was thinking about writing a much more realistic Kaiserreich timeline, but I have doubt that Second Russo-French Entente would have an actual chance, even if they roll all of their sixes like Nazis OTL, and Britain joins them again.
While I agree that in such a scenario, a war akin to what we know as the Second World war is unlikely, I don't think world peace would last longer than a generation. The 1920s are not the 1960s, the world's great powers don't have the ability to nuke each other into oblivion if tensions between them reaches the point war cannot be avoided. This means there's less incentive to avoid war when said tensions arises and in a world like the one depicted above, tensions will come, inevitably.
The first thing that comes to mind is Russia. Of course the shape of post-civil war Russia after a White victory is hard to predict but chances are that the new government will sooner or later look forward to restore some parts of the lost empire. If the country is led in a more pragmatic way than it was during OTL, 25-30 years after the RCW, chances are the Russians will feel comfortable enough to again challenge their neighbours. Although France could very well now be destribed as 'mortally crippled' by TTL Great War, once back on its feet Russia would still possess undeniable advantages:
Population wise, the Russians will still hold the number superiority over Germany albeit a reduced one;
The country remains vast and terrain could still be traded for time in an invasion scenario;
The natural ressources of Russia are multiple and in some was more diversified than in Central Europe;
Or course that is not to say that it would be a good idea to go after Germany or that getting the pieces together to get there would be easy; good education is lacking, the country is lagging behind industrially, scientific and technologic advancements will be required to put these resources to good use. But, Russia has the potential to become "great again". When that is achieved, Germany will have a solid rival.
In Asia, unless Japan drastically change course, the country will continue to expand its influence in the Pacific and China. This without doubts will bring them into conflict with one of the great power at some point. Japan is trying to achieve what Europe did in the later 18th and 10th century, build for itself an empire and there isn’t much room left for them to squeeze in. History has showed the Japanese won’t refrain to offend other nations if they think the game is worth it. I don’t think the will necessary commit a national suicide like OTL Pacific war but I also think they will take offensive actions at some point.
I would also like to point out that Britain, although at the losing end of the table this time is not that much in a bad shape. The British Empire still stands and even if tensions will surely arise from the defeat, these won’t be insurmountable problems. I think it’s unlikely that good diplomatic relations could remain between London and Berlin, by 1918 the war had damaged the public opinion of each other too much and trust is hard to rebuild. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of ‘Cold war’ arise from TTL German victory. IMO, a renewed naval arms race is also unavoidable, only this time the Royal Navy will have to outbuild Germany, the US and Japan.
The British economy can probably handle this but not without compromises elsewhere in the budget. Japan can’t, and there’s an earthquake waiting to screw up their efforts in 1923. Germany cannot outbuild the British but will be the biggest threat due to the proximity. America can theoretically expand its shipbuilding industry to build more capital ships than Britain but without an intervention in WW1, I have serious doubts about the will of the Congress to finance such an endeavour. In this scenario, just give the British a decade to stomach their defeat and Britain is likely to jump on the first good occasion to take on Germany again. That will not be before some years, that won’t be alone and that might even be a small scale conflict but any reasons to take on the High Seas Fleet will be a good one.
Long story short, probably not a 50-60-70 million death war (hopefully!) but maybe lots of small to medium-scale conflicts between rivals merging into a war that maybe could be called a ‘Second World war’.
Personally, my guess would be UK-Russia-USA vs. Germany and Japan in the late 1940s/early 1950s. France, Italy and Turkey, I don’t know, depends on who’s winning after some months I guess…
How much damage to Anglo-American relations has this alt-WWI wrought? Has big implications for any Pacific War. Also note well that America has much less military knowledge and while they would still be economically over-determined to beat Japan on their own, it might become a question of morale...
Barring incredible stupidity, French rapprochement with Germany and economic integration into this *Zollverein is an inevitability. They would have no capacity or will to re-mobilize a la Weimar Germany.
Britain and Germany are at odds, perhaps, but neither can really hurt the other as this WWI has shown. Britain's obvious move would be to prop up the Russian bear as a counterweight to Germany. But wouldn't German, American, and British capital want peace to seek the massive returns found in a rapidly modernizing white Russia?
I would imagine two major conflict zones
1. Pacific theater against Japan.
2. Russia revanchism and competition with Germany for client states in Eastern Europe.
It seems unlikely these would erupt into full-scale total wars at the same time, but certainly not impossible.
Sowing the Seeds:
My ideal Central Powers win WWI scenario has them doing it in late 1918/early 1919 without the US becoming involved. Eastern Europe is carved up as intended, the playing field is leveled with the UK, and France gets it own Versailles (Not as strong because Germany doesn't have the manpower yet for all of their colonies, other than that though it is the same.)
The War in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East:
What sets the world on the path to war is the Ottoman Empire breaking up in the 1930's, France falling into a Communist revolution in the same decade, and France and the Soviet Union forming an alliance with the goal of turning all of Europe Communist. The War in Europe kicks off in Mid-1940 in Turkey, with Turkey turning down Russian claims on land the Turkey kept in Russia after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. (France and the Soviet Union need more time to prepare due to their weakened states than Germany did, causing a later start in my opinion.)
The War in the Pacific, Asia, AND the Americas:
The UK joins the "new" Entente only around a month after the war begins to try to once again put Germany below it in power. This creates a "Pacific Phony War" that lasts until December 7th, 1941. With the US increasingly denouncing Japans actions in China, and Germany continually fearing Japan invading what is now German Indochina, they both denounce Japan. This leads to a naval incident in mid-1941, which serves as the catalyst for the attack on Pearl Harbor. The UK sees this, and despite fearing the implications of the US joining the Central Powers, decides to reignite its alliance with Japan in an effort to damage Germany. With the US having an extreme industrial might once fully put in gear, the UK's trump card is to ignite a massive border war by using Canada. The goal is for a swift offensive to at most keep the US occupied from sending troops out to other theaters. A small theater opens up in the northern part of South America surrounding the colonies in Guyana and Suriname. In Asia, Communist China does not want to be in a faction with Nationalist China, which is now with the Central Powers. As a result, Communist China betrays Nationalist China.
Major Central Powers:
Austria-Hungary-Croatia (AHC)
Germany
The United States of America
Nationalist China
Major Entente Powers:
The French Commune
The Soviet Union
The United Kingdom
Italy (Loosely involved because the Fascists and Communists do not trust each other; the UK is the only country that even moderately works with Italy. Japan doesn't work with Italy that much simply due to different war goals; though each country is more respectful of each other than others.)
Japan
Outcome:
A Central Powers victory in 1946/1947, however it is very close at the beginning due to the Entente having a notable geographical advantage.
