The terms Germany imposes on France will likely be a large indemnity and territorial adjustments (Briey-Longwy, Belforte, the slopes of the western Vosges, perhaps a western border partially on the Moselle) that'd be comparably minor compared to those imposed upon France OTL. The Germans had more ideas regarding territory from Belgium (a Meuse border) and Luxembourg (the whole thing) IIRC. There'll also likely be limits on France's military. The goal will be to neutralize France as a threat for a generation at least and gain strategic depth. Although if there's a third war, maybe somebody will bring up the boundary of Westphalia.
I'm not sure why France would go communist. Post-war France historically had a more active revanchist right than radical left, so I think it's far more likely Maurras's Action Francaise or de la Rocque's Croix de Feu would take over in France. Of course, unlike Germany OTL (who only lost one war) here France will have lost two wars in 47 years (Germany OTL ultimately losing two wars in 31 years). It's not unlikely that France could embrace a heavy dose of defeatist culture (heck they were pretty glum post-war OTL and they won the thing).
The big question depends on how peace in the east is decided and the boundaries that come with it. I say there's 4 ways it could go.
1) No Kerensky Offensive and Kerensky sues for peace in 1917. Russia loses Congress Poland, Luthuania, Courland, Bialystok, Grodno, Kars, and Adjara. Russia still has strategic depth, the Ukrainian breadbasket, and Baku oil. There will likely be a stab-in-the-back myth or some other type of nationalist fervor put forward by the reactionary-nationalist right.
2) There is a Kerensky Offensive and it goes as OTL, but Kerensky doesn't release the Bolsheviks during the bout of idiocy that was the Kornilov Affair. Russia holds on until 1918, but the government continues to lose to Germany. Come February 1918 as the Ukrainian Secretariat continues to be grumpy with Kerensky (Kerensky recognized the secretariat but only granted them authority over Central and western Ukraine - Novorossiya, Donbas, and Kharkiv remained under Moscow's purview and Kiev was very unhappy with this) they strike their own deal with the CPs and declare independence unilaterally. As this happens, Romania probably calls it quits in exchange for Bessarabia. By this point OTL the Germans had occupied the Estonian archipelago as well. As things generally fall apart, the Russians sue for peace, ceding Congress Poland, Lithuania, Courland, the West Estonian Archipelago, Western Belarus (OTL Polish Kresy lands), Kars, Adjara, maybe Nakhchivan-Yerevan, and Western and Central Ukraine. I'm thinking the Russians will retain Kharkiv, Donbas and Taurida east of the Dnieper. At most they lose OTL Ukraine minus Crimea, which would still leave them Baku oil.
3) There's a Russian Civil War but the Nationalists win. OTL Brest-Litovsk borders plus a revanchist-nationalist population and government and there likely being a couple of muslim states in the north caucuses as well. Crimea was supposed to be Russian under the treaty historically, but I think Ukraine or the Ottomans will take it here. However, it's also possible a white russia would be full of warlords and fiefs for a decade or two. It won't really be poised to be the biggest threat against Germany.
4) There's a Russian Civil War but the Communists win. OTL Brest-Litovsk borders plus an insecure Soviet government ad there likely being a couple of muslim states in the north caucuses as well. Crimea was supposed to be Russian under the treaty historically, but I think Ukraine or the Ottomans will take it here. The Soviets know the world wants their regime destroyed, so expect paranoia and insecurity. However, it will likely be a more secure government.
The thing about the Ottomans is that by mid-1918 they've already lost Hijaz, Basra, Baghdad, Kirkuk (though they abandoned Mosul after a couple weeks), and Jerusalem. The British aren't going to give those territories back. Ottomans will likely retain Damascus, Aleppo, and Mosul though. Looks like the British will get everything they wanted from Sykes-Picot and the French get squat (unless the British decide to push for France getting Lebanon). The territory they gain will all be in the Caucuses and perhaps Crimea.
So France hates Britain over being stabbed in the back in the mideast, France is either neutered or depressed but too weak to do anything anyways, the Ottomans are reduced but also a smaller and more Turkish polity that still holds on to most of the most important cities of the Empire, the British have made colonial gains but lost a lot of blood and have basically been stalemated, Germany dominates central Europe but is weary of what's to the east, and there's a bunch of eastern client states that probably won't like German domination.
As for colonies, Germany probably gets Togo and Cameroon back from France but they aren't getting Tanganyika or SW Africa back. Britain might sign off on Germany getting back the colonies the French occupied if the Germans get out of Belgium (which I'm sure Germany will probably be fine with as a neutral Belgium suits their strategic needs just fine, they've gained more depth in the west at the expense of France, and most of their attention is going to be on Russia and Central Europe anyways.
The US has likely stayed out of one war and is probably quite content with itself. Japan probably more or less has the same territorial gains and politics as OTL, though they might get more respect racially-speaking than they did historically if Wilson isn't there to muck things up. Without the US in the War and able to pressure Japan afterwards, Japan probably doesn't have to give Qingdao back. Without the disrespect from the OTL end of the war and without being forced to give up Qingdao and their influence in Shandong, I don't think Japan will necessarily go down the same militaristic route as it did historically. Plus if the US is not in the war, Britain probably sticks with the Anglo-Japanese alliance. Maybe when the Empire adopts Imperial Preference, Japan gets an exception.
Japan will be preoccupied holding onto its Shandong gains and will likely skirmish with China (think of things like the OTL January 28th incident in 1932). China will probably be pro-Germany here. If there's no Russian Civil War, there's no independent Outer Mongolia (Ungern-Sternberg not being able to run off and cause trouble). Japan's main concerns are likely (1) China (2) a US wary of what Japan is getting up to (3) what Russia is doing and (4) the low hanging fruit that is French Indochina. In all 4 of these concerns, alliance and good relations with the UK make a lot of sense. A less militaristic, more diplomatic, more UK-aligned Japan means a different dynamic in the period for sure.
If I had to guess what starts WWII (or an equivalent) it would be uprisings in German dominated Europe and Austria-Hungary breaking out at around the same time following the Great Depression of TTL and Russia seeing an opportunity to regain some strategic depth (nothing really as megalomaniacal as OTL Germany and Japan I think). The question is one of "who benefits from undoing the European order and has some capacity to act" and I think the answer is Russia, Italy, and (if the Russians renounce claims to Bessarabia) Romania. If the Turks get involved, then Bulgaria probably has an incentive to be on team Russia (although perhaps they attack Romania for Dobruja and force Germany to give them a free hand in dominating Albania and taking lands from Greece - or they just stay out of it and sell weapons to both sides). Britain meanwhile watches with popcorn because aside from Japan nobody in this context has a positive opinion of the UK, who was the only Entente country to make gains from WWI.
Japan meanwhile is doing its own thing on the other side of the world, unless a German-backed China supports Germany against Russia, in which case Japan has to make a decision: attack Russia or attack China? Or China doesn't enter the war and Japan has to think about whether messing with Russia is a good idea or whether to focus on the Chinese issue.
