I've always thought questions like these are interesting thought experiments regarding WW2, but as you mentioned in your original post, it's almost impossible to create without ASB. Germany and Japan had the population and resources to create regional hegemonies in the 1940s, but not to become world powers as the U.S. and Soviet Union did. And giving both those countries extra resources butterflies away much of the motivation to fight the war to begin with (not all their motivations-they were both motivated in part by ideology and ethnic/racial animosities, but the need for more natural resources was a factor in their governments motivating the population to fight).
I will say that if the Germany, within it's territorial boundaries of 1939, had a population of 110-120 million people and had a significant domestic supply of oil, and they mobilized these extra resources efficiently, then its chances of knocking out the Soviet government in the beginning of Barbarossa and fortifying continental Europe against a Western Allies invasion improves dramatically. But even the extra manpower and oil might not be enough. I'm not sure how well supplied it was with steel-someone else on the board would probably be better able to tell you that than me-and even with a population of 120 million, they are still facing a significant manpower disparity when facing the USSR, USA, and UK empire all at once. Plus, we also have to consider the issues of Germany being able to feed a population of 120 million and having the capabilities to develop nuclear weapons.