Even if FDR does not get re-elected in 1940 (the war in Europe was a boost for him in terms of stating with a known quantity), the USA is going to continue pressuring Japan about China, the Republicans were also behind this concept. By fall 1940 the economic sanctions were pretty much fully in place, and most of the goods sanctions were in place although not the complete petroleum ones (those were summer 1941). Japan can occupy Indochina peacefully (as they did OTL) simply by the Germans assisting with pressuring Vichy. This gives them some strategic positioning, as well as access to the rice without the need for hard currency. The British probably won't sell Japan oil except on a cash and carry basis (concerns about Singapore, Burma, India etc) and Japan has essentially zero hard currency by August, 1940. The Dutch, they can be pressured by Germany to sell on credit or taking Yen (maybe). IF Japan can get enough oil and other raw materials to continue the war in China in the face of US and possibly British Empire embargoes, then there is no Pacific War. Democrat or Republican, FDR or Wilkie the USA will NOT declare war on Japan to save China. The question about a Pacific War is basically straightforward - if the Japanese military (specifically the army) feels they are getting the resources to pursue and "win" the war in China then there is no need to attack the USA.
IMHO the USA will build up the Pacific defenses and the navy, even in the absence of a European War because the concept of a collision with Japan is common even among isolationists. If Germany gets some basing rights in French western hemisphere possessions, and is getting close to South American countries like Argentina and others (as OTL but more so) even isolationists will want a build up for western hemisphere defense.
In Europe I can see Luxembourg, Alsace-Lorraine, bits of Belgium and Holland for sure incorporated in to Germany proper. Norway and Denmark nominally independent but... Poland, Germany's share of the Baltics, and Czech lands will be incorporated in some fashion. I'm not sure I see Germany and the USSR with a common border being a stable situation. Yugoslavia, Hungary, Romania will be in the German camp to a greater or lesser extent, not sure how Bulgaria will go.
Absent Hitler, and a war with the USSR I'm not sure what happens to the Jews (and Gypsies) of German lands. For sure ghettoization, abuse, pauperization etc. Certainly use of healthy males for slave labor constructing new military facilities, defense lines and so forth. I expect the "ransoming" of Jews will become a going concern. I expect anti-Semitic legislation in all "independent" client states, how far this goes, will there be ghettoes in France (for example) I expect not but certainly in Eastern Europe.
Just some thoughts