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Preface:
I am not talking about exact specifics on how Moscow falls, except that it is not through the old "take Guderian's advice and launch assault on Moscow before Kiev operation".

If that were to have happened, many historians (and I) have concluded that Army Group Center would have been cut off and annihilated as the Red Army was at the time more than intact.

Introduction:
Many historians and people have debated what would happen if Moscow had fallen to the Germans in 1941. Many people are also highly flawed in their arguments. I would like to give my input and to foster discussion

Hitler had learned the wrong lessons from Napoleon. He thought that through the Kiev campaign he would seize all vital industry from the Soviet Union, causing its collapse. He saw Moscow and Leningrad as only secondary objectives. We all know how that worked out.

Many compare the Fall of Moscow to that of 1812, but there is a deep flaw in that. Barbarossa is not 1812, and also many don't realize the capital was St. Petersburg and not Moscow. Moscow was just a provincial city at that time, expendable by the Russian Empire.

Moscow in 1941 was a vital communications and railway hub, and as the Soviet capital it would be a massive propaganda blow to the Soviets. Supplying divisions for the Soviets to wage the kind of war to push the Germans out would be next to impossible. Not only that, but Stalin was intending to stay in Moscow unless it fell, and if his evacuation is not timed right, he may die, inflicting massive chaos on Soviet leadership, and probably causing the USSR to collapse. But most likely Stalin would evacuate well before Panzergrenadiers storm the Kremlin.

If Moscow fell, there would be no railway to supply the northern front, and with the Red Army collapsing there an entire army group is free to reinforce. Plus after the fall of Moscow, Hitler would stop his advance and dig in.

Let us discuss the various scenarios I have heard and point out some flaws.
Scenario 1: Stalingrad on Steroids
Many would argue to a good point that the winter and relentless Soviet counterattacks would force the Germans out.

Bad supplies, logistics and a -40 degree celsius winter is not good for fighting. So the Germans are cut off and defeated. This is all said and good, but as a Soviet Commander you then make the horrible realization you cannot transport the 30+ divisions and hundreds of tanks necessary because you just lost nearly all of your railways and roads. IOTL at Stalingrad the Soviets could transport reinforcements for a counterattack. Well, good luck doing that.
Scenario 2: Does not matter, Soviets beat the Nazis back (somehow)
Many wrongly believe that the Soviet state was some sort of super colossus. It was one, but not infallible. Moscow was not just one other city. It was of vital strategic importance. Many roads lead to and from Moscow, and supplying Soviet divisions just got a hell of a lot tougher. This is why Moscow was defended to the last man IOTL.
Scenario 3: Total capitulation
Unlikely, since the Soviet government and industry had already relocated.
Scenario 4: Red Army collapse, Stalemate on the Urals:
Given all the logistical problems, the Red Army just degenerates into a guerrilla force, and the war becomes one of cleaning up partisans in European Russia. Russia can still function, but as a rump soviet state concentrated in the far east And as Hitler once said, Stalin retaking Russia from Siberia would be the equivalent of "retaking Germany from Slovakia".

Conclusion:

My evaluation is this: 25% chance of Scenario 1, 30% chance of stalemate outside Moscow with crippled Red Army, and 45% total Red Army collapse and de facto German victory.

With a 75% chance of a negative outlook and a significant possibility for an Axis victory, for the Soviets the Fall of Moscow would not be good. Compare it to kicking a man in the balls extremely hard in a fight. You will disable him for some time, but by the time he recovers, you have already possess a strategic advantage over him.

In light of this, be thankful that the Soviets held off the Germans at the gates of Moscow, for had it fallen, we would likely see an Eastern front swing in favor for the invading Germans and if that were to happen, a near certain Axis victory.

What do you think would have happened if Moscow had fallen to the invading Germans?

PLEASE NOTE: I'M NOT A HISTORIAN SO MAY HAVE 1 TRILLION FLAWS IN REASONING. But I am simply throwing my informed and decently educated opinion (after reading hundreds of other opinions). Please bear with me and lets have civilized arguments and not a bloodfest in the comment section.
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