WW2 breaks out in March of 1939?

[Enigmajones]

What if, the Romanian War Scare, combined with the annexation the Memelland, puts Chamberlain and France on edge. German movements near the French border set off an alert and on March 23rd, when Hungary invades Slovakia, French and German soldiers have a firing incident and things roll out of control from there. The next day, France declares war on Germany, and the British respond in kind, wary since the Dutch War Scare. The Germans, figuring if they wait any longer, they will lose the advantage, invade neutral Netherlands, in order to gain bases for air attacks on Britain, running down through into Belgium, in an attempt to invade France. Poland and Romania join the war on the side of the French and British.

How do things go from there? The Hungarians are technically invading a German ally, but if the Germans give Slovakia to the Hungarians, they can possibly gain another ally. Also, do the Italians join in? How do the Soviets respond?

 

[Paul MacQ]

Nice to see a new scenario here.

The Germans Hit Poland pretty much at a Peak of strength I do not see a few months Making much of a Difference, But Germany needs to act Fast and Drastically of there only source of Oil will be via the Baltic from Russia until the conquer and if they get Oil fields intact.

I am not totally sure of how Poland is going to react here.

 

[Enigmajones]

Nice to see a new scenario here.

The Germans Hit Poland pretty much at a Peak of strength I do not see a few months Making much of a Difference, But Germany needs to act Fast and Drastically of there only source of Oil will be via the Baltic from Russia until the conquer and if they get Oil fields intact.

I am not totally sure of how Poland is going to react here.

Thanks.

Well the moment the Poles see the Germans attacked, they'll take their chances. Im imaging a Polish attack on Germany, before a German invasion of Poland can be launched. Stalin just sits back and waits.

 

[Shadow Master]

Thanks.

Well the moment the Poles see the Germans attacked, they'll take their chances.

Look behind you!

France and the UK are going to have their hands full, and so will not be able to come to Poland's aid. If poland decides to march west, Stalin can claim he is just coming to the aid of Germany, and gets his free land grab in eastern poland without any public condemnation.

Short version, Poland looses.

Just my 2 cents worth.

 

[Snake Featherston]

My guess is that the Soviets stay out of the war, it takes longer for it to lead to large-scale fighting, and past that I'm not quite sure. In this case Germany faces a large alliance with the ultimate potential to overwhelm it, but as 1940 showed potential power is far from the same as actual power in this regard.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

What if, the Romanian War Scare, combined with the annexation the Memelland, puts Chamberlain and France on edge. German movements near the French border set off an alert and on March 23rd, when Hungary invades Slovakia, French and German soldiers have a firing incident and things roll out of control from there. The next day, France declares war on Germany, and the British respond in kind, wary since the Dutch War Scare. The Germans, figuring if they wait any longer, they will lose the advantage, invade neutral Netherlands, in order to gain bases for air attacks on Britain, running down through into Belgium, in an attempt to invade France. Poland and Romania join the war on the side of the French and British.

How do things go from there? The Hungarians are technically invading a German ally, but if the Germans give Slovakia to the Hungarians, they can possibly gain another ally. Also, do the Italians join in? How do the Soviets respond?

Why does Hungary invade a German satellite? - I assume you mean the (full) annexation of the Carpathoukraine by Hnugary. - This happened OTL without triggering further violence.

IMHO a "shooting accident won't trigger a war" - Germany had NO REAL intent to attack France (only when France declared war after the German attack on Poland).

I see no clear POD for a TL here...

BTW what do you mean by Romanian and Dutch war scare?

 

[KACKO]

How do things go from there? The Hungarians are technically invading a German ally, but if the Germans give Slovakia to the Hungarians, they can possibly gain another ally. Also, do the Italians join in? How do the Soviets respond?

Problem was Hungarians were very reluctant to get involved in Germans plans against Czechoslovakia in 1938. And in OTL against Poland. Yes, they put some pressure on Czechoslovaks, but divisions stationed there were strong enough to defend Slovakian low lands against Hungarian army. Especially with Danube and Ipel river on the border and bunkers (even if light) there. Also Czechoslovak were able to repulse Hungarian terrorist intrusion in 1938 and even when Czechoslovakia. Hungarians at the time lacked heavy weapons, artillery etc.
As to Hungarian occupation of Slovakia. In March war Slovaks massed troops on eastern border and were ready to counter attack but German pressure on both sides stopped that. Of course we can doubt if Slovaks would be able to push Hungarians army back with state of the Slovak Army at the time.
So after Germans agreed with Slovak Independence and if they suddenly change the mind and let Hungarians occupy it, it would be tough job for Hungarians to finish the job.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Germany without all the armaments seized from Czechia and six months less arms production? Hmm...does not sound good...

 

[KACKO]

Germany without all the armaments seized from Czechia and six months less arms production? Hmm...does not sound good...

Well, he said Slovak-Hungarian war started as OTL, March 23rd. That means Czech lands are occupied and arms sized. Problem is, they have 6 month less to train with them.

 

[KACKO]

Why does Hungary invade a German satellite? - I assume you mean the (full) annexation of the Carpathoukraine by Hnugary. - This happened OTL without triggering further violence.

IMHO a "shooting accident won't trigger a war" - Germany had NO REAL intent to attack France (only when France declared war after the German attack on Poland).

I see no clear POD for a TL here...

BTW what do you mean by Romanian and Dutch war scare?

Well, in March 14th or 15th Hungary fully invaded part of Czechoslovak Carpatho ukraine after declaration of Slovak independence. Part of it they already got in Vienna 1938. Czech lands were occupied on March 15th. Hungary recognize independent Slovakia right away but on March 23rd attacked eastern part of country on the border with Carpatho Ukraine.

 

[Enigmajones]

Why does Hungary invade a German satellite? - I assume you mean the (full) annexation of the Carpathoukraine by Hnugary. - This happened OTL without triggering further violence.

IMHO a "shooting accident won't trigger a war" - Germany had NO REAL intent to attack France (only when France declared war after the German attack on Poland).

I see no clear POD for a TL here...

BTW what do you mean by Romanian and Dutch war scare?

March 23rd is the start of the Hungarian-Slovakian War.

The Dutch and Romanian War scares both occurred early on in 1939 and put people on the brink of war.

 

[Karelian]

I see interesting butterflies in Scandinavia and Baltic region. With a full-swing war going on, Stalin will seek to secure Leningrad by earlier negotiations with the Baltic states - I doubt Stalin would send in troops just yet, he'd wait and see how badly Germany will get stuck in Western Front.

In OTL March 1939 Boris Stein, a former Soviet Ambassador to Finland, suggested renting the islands of Gulf of Finland to USSR. Historically Mannerheim was willing to take public responsibility of this transaction and urged the government to accept the proposed deal. Assuming it goes ahead as planned, Stalin might not press for naval base in Hanko later on. Thus the Finnish counterproposals for changing the border away from Leningrad in exchange for territory in Eastern Karelia might reach an agreement, even though it was still unlikely. On the other hand a more compliant attitude from the Finnish side would most likely just encourage Stalin to press on with new demands - compliance with Soviet wishes did little to help the other Baltic states, after all

Sweden and Norway would both obviously start to rearm earlier than OTL, but with the war in full swing in central Europe, I doubt either Germany or Allies would seek to violate their neutrality just yet.

 

[Enigmajones]

Yeah that is an interesting point. As well as the fact, that Stalin may see the war as having something to do with Germany's hostile action towards Lithuania, and not want to get involved with the Baltic States.

 

[stevep]

Enigmajones

So a somewhat weaker Germany - less time to build up their own forces or absorb Czech loot, finds themselves at war with Britain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland and Romania. Looking good for the anti-Nazis. Especially since the Germans have launched an offensive into the low countries that will drain a hell of a lot of resources they can't easily replace.

The east is looking better as well. I doubt Stalin will move when Poland is openly allied with both the western powers and Romania. The Poles won't delay their mobilisation and can't be attacked at anything like the same level so are likely at the very least to last a lot longer and probably be able to launch some attacks themselves. Germany may struggle to hold E Prussia. Also with Romania as an ally the Poles have access to supplies and a place to retreat to if things were to go really badly.

Furthermore, with no alliance with Stalin or a common border either Germany has limited access to Soviet supplies. Stalin might be willing to sell goods to Germany but a) that will almost certainly be for cash, which is in limited supply and b) the Germans would have to get those supplies through a possibly contested Baltic, especially if the RN could base subs in Poland. Not to mention a hostile Romania is not going to be selling any oil to Germany.

Furthermore German attacks on the Dutch and Belgium and possibly the Hungarian actions would alienate neutral opinion and make other local neutrals more interested in their own security.

Even presuming the allies do relatively little other than fighting on the Belgium front where, unless the Germans have also adopted the hook through the Ardennes, will be a frontal assault, and relatively scattered fighting on the eastern front, the Germans have effectively penned themselves into a corner and have no real way out. their likely to steadily be worn down by superior numbers and lack of supplies if nothing else. Also, with their obvious problems, its unlikely that Germany is likely to be winning and hence trigger Italian intervention so the Med is likely to stay quiet.

Steve

What if, the Romanian War Scare, combined with the annexation the Memelland, puts Chamberlain and France on edge. German movements near the French border set off an alert and on March 23rd, when Hungary invades Slovakia, French and German soldiers have a firing incident and things roll out of control from there. The next day, France declares war on Germany, and the British respond in kind, wary since the Dutch War Scare. The Germans, figuring if they wait any longer, they will lose the advantage, invade neutral Netherlands, in order to gain bases for air attacks on Britain, running down through into Belgium, in an attempt to invade France. Poland and Romania join the war on the side of the French and British.

How do things go from there? The Hungarians are technically invading a German ally, but if the Germans give Slovakia to the Hungarians, they can possibly gain another ally. Also, do the Italians join in? How do the Soviets respond?

 

[Enigmajones]

Enigmajones

So a somewhat weaker Germany - less time to build up their own forces or absorb Czech loot, finds themselves at war with Britain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland and Romania. Looking good for the anti-Nazis. Especially since the Germans have launched an offensive into the low countries that will drain a hell of a lot of resources they can't easily replace.

The east is looking better as well. I doubt Stalin will move when Poland is openly allied with both the western powers and Romania. The Poles won't delay their mobilisation and can't be attacked at anything like the same level so are likely at the very least to last a lot longer and probably be able to launch some attacks themselves. Germany may struggle to hold E Prussia. Also with Romania as an ally the Poles have access to supplies and a place to retreat to if things were to go really badly.

Furthermore, with no alliance with Stalin or a common border either Germany has limited access to Soviet supplies. Stalin might be willing to sell goods to Germany but a) that will almost certainly be for cash, which is in limited supply and b) the Germans would have to get those supplies through a possibly contested Baltic, especially if the RN could base subs in Poland. Not to mention a hostile Romania is not going to be selling any oil to Germany.

Furthermore German attacks on the Dutch and Belgium and possibly the Hungarian actions would alienate neutral opinion and make other local neutrals more interested in their own security.

Even presuming the allies do relatively little other than fighting on the Belgium front where, unless the Germans have also adopted the hook through the Ardennes, will be a frontal assault, and relatively scattered fighting on the eastern front, the Germans have effectively penned themselves into a corner and have no real way out. their likely to steadily be worn down by superior numbers and lack of supplies if nothing else. Also, with their obvious problems, its unlikely that Germany is likely to be winning and hence trigger Italian intervention so the Med is likely to stay quiet.

Steve

Thanks for the response. How long do you think the war goes on? Effects on the world with an earlier defeat of Germany? And the effect of no Holocaust.

 

[Zaius]

Immediately after the outbreak of war in the west, Poland will be in a very interesting situation. Neutral Poland lets Germany concentrate on one front, and may serve as a safe route for Soviet resources, primarily oil. Obviously Germany will be desperate to keep Poland out of the war, and the West will be equally eager to bring it in on their side. Unfortunately for Germany, the west will be able to offer much, much more then Hitler can. Poland could try delaying its entry in the hope of making the West promise it more.

Germany’s attempts to acquire sufficient oil will be interesting. If Germany is at war with Britain, France, the Low Countries, Poland and Romania, getting at Romania’s oil seems virtually impossible. The first obstacle will be Hungary, which will not want to be involved with an an aggressive regime already at war with the forces arrayed against it. It would be amusing to see a German attempt to force Hungary into submission backfire and make Hungary join the Allies.

In the end, I can’t see Germany coming out intact. Hitler’s career will serve as a lesson as to what may happen if Germany is appeased and allowed to rearm again, and will probably cause pressure to disarm Germany (at least to some extent) and keep it that way afterwards. I’d expect the restoration of Austria and a Czech Republic (which may have a good chance of reuniting with Slovakia later on). With Germany having been rendered powerless, I would not expect Stalin to try anything much in Europe for a while. Perhaps consolidating control over any small Baltic states he might have ensnared while everybody else was looking the other way, but probably no more.

 

[Enigmajones]

Very interesting. Im glad that I found this POD. Surprised no one's done it before.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

March 23rd is the start of the Hungarian-Slovakian War.

The Dutch and Romanian War scares both occurred early on in 1939 and put people on the brink of war.

So thats the POD - Hungary and Slovakia go to war?

Can you elaborate on the war scare thing? - I am not aware that either the Dutch or Romanians were eager to go to war (Romania would be willing to Reverse the Vienna award, so attacking Hungary would be an option, but the DUTCH?)

 

[Enigmajones]

So thats the POD - Hungary and Slovakia go to war?

Can you elaborate on the war scare thing? - I am not aware that either the Dutch or Romanians were eager to go to war (Romania would be willing to Reverse the Vienna award, so attacking Hungary would be an option, but the DUTCH?)

The Dutch War scare is

"Dutch War Scare": Admiral Wilhelm Canaris of the Abwehr leaks misinformation to the effect that Germany plans to invade the Netherlands in February, with the aim of using Dutch air-fields to launch a strategic bombing offensive against Britain. The "Dutch War Scare" leads to a major change in British policies towards Europe.

The Romanian War Scare

"Romanian War Scare": Virgil Tilea, the Romanian Minister in London, spreads false rumours that Romania is on the verge of a German attack.
At an emergency meeting in London to deal with the Romanian crisis, French Foreign Minister Georges Bonnet suggests to Lord Halifax that the ideal state for saving Romania from a German attack is Poland.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

Thanks - the picture gets clearer.