WW2: Australia neutral

In WW2, Ireland stead neutral despite being a member of the Commonwealth. Is it possible for Aus/NZ to stay neutral and negotiate for example with Japan a sphere of Australian Interests?(eg Timor, PNG are vital for the safety of Aus and Japan will accept this).
Esp. under regard of Gallipoli and the high losses in WW1 and the problematic of deploying ANZAC troops to fight battles in the Mediterranean and the Indian Subcontinent. Does it not make sense for AUS/NZ to stay neutral?
(And could this change the mind of Nations like SA,CAN?)
 

mowque

Banned
SA, of course, is the easy one. Lots of pro-German sentiment. Auz is the toughest one. Japan is anti-Western and you don't get much more western then Oz. There interest will have to start to clash and then it just gets worse.
 
In WW2, Ireland stead neutral despite being a member of the Commonwealth. Is it possible for Aus/NZ to stay neutral and negotiate for example with Japan a sphere of Australian Interests?(eg Timor, PNG are vital for the safety of Aus and Japan will accept this).
Esp. under regard of Gallipoli and the high losses in WW1 and the problematic of deploying ANZAC troops to fight battles in the Mediterranean and the Indian Subcontinent. Does it not make sense for AUS/NZ to stay neutral?
(And could this change the mind of Nations like SA,CAN?)

Impossible
Ireland was a special case Australia wasn't.
Anyway alot of Irish ended up fighting for GB regardless
 
Ireland is a very special case but of the Dominions South Africa is the best chance, you had the Nazi-loving Purified National Party as the parliamentary opposition and the vote to declare war was disturbingly tight. In contrast Australia had Robert "British to our bootstraps" Menzies as PM when war was declared.
 
Let's say the ANZAC tropes get butchered in WW1 and AUS and NZ think it will happen again and they see themselves not enough represented in the CW.(UK tries to hold its passion in mid-east and India by using ANZAC tropes by neglecting PNG and its forces in Malya (sounds like OTL;) and the General Governor starts to intervene against the interests of Aus. Is there no way that anti-UK resentment may cause an agreement with Japan?(IJN could use this forces against the US and India.Moreover, Australia would pose a buffer zone consisting of PNG, Timor Sea etc. .Wasn't the goal of Japan to get resources (oil from Borneo, Sumatra, Java) to colonize China, why wasting forces on PNG and Aus?) ))
 
Let's say the ANZAC tropes get butchered in WW1 and AUS and NZ think it will happen again and they see themselves not enough represented in the CW.(UK tries to hold its passion in mid-east and India by using ANZAC tropes by neglecting PNG and its forces in Malya (sounds like OTL;) and the General Governor starts to intervene against the interests of Aus. Is there no way that anti-UK resentment may cause an agreement with Japan?(IJN could use this forces against the US and India.Moreover, Australia would pose a buffer zone consisting of PNG, Timor Sea etc. .Wasn't the goal of Japan to get resources (oil from Borneo, Sumatra, Java) to colonize China, why wasting forces on PNG and Aus?) ))

No it was to remove European influences and Australia is European.
 
No it was to remove European influences and Australia is European.
It was more about taking over. They trounced the independent or semi independent states of North Borneo, Siam, China, Korea, and the Philippines and were in the process of making Indonesia into a colony after grabbing it. They are on par with the Nazis and Pol Pot in some of their war crimes.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Let's say the ANZAC tropes get butchered in WW1 and AUS and NZ think it will happen again and they see themselves not enough represented in the CW.(UK tries to hold its passion in mid-east and India by using ANZAC tropes by neglecting PNG and its forces in Malya (sounds like OTL;) and the General Governor starts to intervene against the interests of Aus. Is there no way that anti-UK resentment may cause an agreement with Japan?(IJN could use this forces against the US and India.Moreover, Australia would pose a buffer zone consisting of PNG, Timor Sea etc. .Wasn't the goal of Japan to get resources (oil from Borneo, Sumatra, Java) to colonize China, why wasting forces on PNG and Aus?) ))

You can certainly change WW1 enough that the Aussies don't want to fight in WW2, but the problem is that the changes are radical enough that you likely butterfly away WW2 as we know it. So let's take one example.

Gallipoli was the most important battle for the Aussies, and one can easily write a TL where the the Gallipoli army is forced to surrender. Takes more than a simple POD at the start of the battle, but an earlier POD could make it work. And losing all the Aussie troops at Gallipoli might well be big enough to make the Aussies want to sit out the next war. The problem becomes that the POD might well be big enough to change who wins the war, and would definitely change the post WW2 war. We at least have a world with a much stronger Ottoman/Turkish state. Likely has interesting butterflies in the A-H and Balkans. And we have to look at the Somme in 1916. After losing a full army (5-16 divisions, mostly from UK and commonwealths), the UK likely has a radically different strategy in 1916. A fiasco like this one, likely keeps Greece out of the war. etc. etc.

You could also change Japans actions in and right after WW1, but this has radical butterflies that will show up well before 1939 or even 1933. I don't see a way to keep the Aussies out of a WW2 without basically butterflying away WW2 as we know it.
 
Have the British give up New GuineA, German Samoa, and Nauru rather than giving them to the Kiwis and Aussies.
 
Even if Australia stays out of the War in Europe, they're going to be in as soon as Japan attacks Malaya, they can't afford not to get involved.
 
Weren't a great number of 'Australians' in this period British born? Especially Émigrés after WWI? That makes have Australia, and particularly the army take an anti-British stance considering a lot were born, had spend youths or had immediate family that were 'British'.
 
Weren't a great number of 'Australians' in this period British born? Especially Émigrés after WWI? That makes have Australia, and particularly the army take an anti-British stance considering a lot were born, had spend youths or had immediate family that were 'British'.

Indeed. While Blondie is on the right track with a catastrophic WW1 defeat, I would agree with others that this would have so many other butterflies that WW2 would not happen in any similar way.

The Irish approach would be an interesting POD. Have Blondie's POD, then have someone in Australia attempt some sort of uprising (unlikely I know, but more so than IOTL), perhaps a left wing one in Queensland (?)? Then we could get a "stab in the back" issue going with both Britain/rest of Empire and internally.

Australia could be so messed up by that, even if pro British regimes remain or return to control, that the whole Pacific-Asia strategy of the post WW1 Empire is radically different.
 

GarethC

Donor
Basically, Australia correctly recognises that it's on the menu as far as the Co-Prosperity Sphere is concerned. You don't need a different Australia for Oz to remain neutral - you need a different Japan.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Indeed. While Blondie is on the right track with a catastrophic WW1 defeat, I would agree with others that this would have so many other butterflies that WW2 would not happen in any similar way.

The Irish approach would be an interesting POD. Have Blondie's POD, then have someone in Australia attempt some sort of uprising (unlikely I know, but more so than IOTL), perhaps a left wing one in Queensland (?)? Then we could get a "stab in the back" issue going with both Britain/rest of Empire and internally.

Australia could be so messed up by that, even if pro British regimes remain or return to control, that the whole Pacific-Asia strategy of the post WW1 Empire is radically different.

I can actually give you that TL. It takes some odd decisions, but odder ones have happened. You basically need a POD where the UK decides India/Hong Kong is more important than the Aussies followed by hamfisted diplomatic skill worthy of Kaiser Willie.

1) Based on above, the UK decides to pull out the HMS Australia and HMS NZ. Not so sure on command structure on these ships, but lets say they were on the naval review in Portsmouth and don't go back. With fewer forces in area, Japan ends up with all the Germans lands in the Pacific.

2) See weakness, Graf Spee stays around the Aussies sinking ships for months before dying like OTL. A few Northern Aussie cities are bombarded. Butterflies but manageable.

3) IOTL, UK stripped shipping from China and other non-white colonies. Just have the UK decide to keep the trade with China going. After the war, the "evil business dukes" will be blamed. And it will be rich, connect business interests got the decision made. Severe shortages existing in Australia compared to luxuries in England and India. It may not be totally true, but has to be perceived this way. This is where you need PR blunders by English leaders to inflame the underlying perception. Quotes like "We will strip Australia bare if need to win the war" or "India is worth 10 Australia". Just dumb pointless things that make people made. Think GWB using the word "Crusade" in the last decade. Other words still rally the American public, and Crusade has big emotional meaning to Arabs. Same type of dumb stuff.

So after the war, the Aussies feel betrayed and drift away from the UK orbit. While they are anti-Nazi, they don't feel it is their war and don't want to fight over Poland again. Japan is happy with their southern border. The Aussies feel too weak to challenge alone, so seek some accomidation with Japan. When the Pacific war starts up, the Aussies act like Brazil. They sit on the sidelines until it is clear who is winning, and by the time the USA is winning, we don't want the Aussies help. ITTL, the Solomon Island have a network of bases built in the 1920's and 1930's, so it is not a soft spot. The USA uses the Central Pacific push as its only push.

This may be pushing plausibility, but with a few big blunders it could be doable.
 
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