WW1 what if: No invasion of Belgium

You know the French had 3 million men in the field in 1914 right? If you mean 2 million or so by few, then you would be right.


I never said it wouldn't be, only that it won't be a giant prancing cakewalk by germanic superheroes.

France had no equipment, training or doctrine to be assaulting the fortified zone at Metz-Thionville, nor was the terrain further south able to support major offensive operations.
 
If Germany focuses specifically on russia the Russians have a short opportunity to go on the offensive, which they will because that is there policy(not wanting a repeat of Napoleon's invasion). They will likely follow the same plan however this time it won't just be a corp coming from the west, but several full armies. The German army will break the Russians early and will likely abandon Poland much earlier. Russia sues for terms as soon as the initial french attacks on Germany are repulsed with heavy casualties. Russia will agree to Poland's independence, as a puppet of Germany and possibly Finland. Austria will get some border revisions as will the ottomans.

Now Germany has to transfer its forces west. At this time they will probably bet that Britain won't declare war ans even if they do Germany is no longer as effected by the blockade. Germany invades across Belgium and with the french army focused on the offensive in a-l the Germans are able to inflict heavier losses in men material and territory. By the time any bef arrives it will be too late Germany will capture the channel ports and they will be trapped. Germany agrees to border adjustments taking all of a-l and Belgium as a puppet state. Britain now has no choice but to accept or face a Napoleonic situation again... this time with no allies

The idea of Germany using Belgian neutrality to defeat Russia, and then invading through Belgium to defeat France looks generally correct. However, if Germany attempted this plan France would invade through the Belgian Ardennes, because, for the reasons you outline, it would have no other choice if the defeat of its Russian ally is to be avoided.
 
France had no equipment, training or doctrine to be assaulting the fortified zone at Metz-Thionville, nor was the terrain further south able to support major offensive operations.

Equipment can be built, especially with more industrial capacity uncaptured, and doctrine and training were constantly improved during the war.

The French will figure out how to do their own reverse Verdun. May not go anywhere fast, but they will kill lots of Germans who have to be replaced.

Ignoring France doesn't make them go away.
 
Equipment can be built, especially with more industrial capacity uncaptured, and doctrine and training were constantly improved during the war.

The French will figure out how to do their own reverse Verdun. May not go anywhere fast, but they will kill lots of Germans who have to be replaced.

Ignoring France doesn't make them go away.

Given that France is in a poorer position wrt manpower towards Germany, doesn't trying to pull off a Verdun make them worse off? Especially since Verdun was something of a dismal failure in this regard anyways.
 
If Germany focuses specifically on russia the Russians have a short opportunity to go on the offensive, which they will because that is there policy(not wanting a repeat of Napoleon's invasion). They will likely follow the same plan however this time it won't just be a corp coming from the west, but several full armies.

Unfortunately no.

The Russian "Germany goes east, not west" war plan was exactly that, retreat and make germany pay for every step taken until they run out of supplies and men.

Just like Napoleon.

They only attacked as they did OTL because everyone knew the Germans were going west first, and the French require the support.

If the Germans are going east first, the Russians will know it, and will let them come to them. Butterflying Tannenberg, but also some of the destruction wrought by Conrad as well.

Slow retreat while the Germans pay in blood will be the way this goes. OTL 1915, except in 1914 with the best of the Russian prewar armies and equipment intact.
 
Equipment can be built, especially with more industrial capacity uncaptured, and doctrine and training were constantly improved during the war.

And how long will that take?

The French will figure out how to do their own reverse Verdun. May not go anywhere fast, but they will kill lots of Germans who have to be replaced.

Ignoring France doesn't make them go away.

The Germans attacked through Belgium twice to avoid the defenses both sides had at their common border. Trying to slug through Alsace-Lorraine will do the French more harm than it will ever do to the Germans. IOTL Germany waged a two-front war and held on to a much larger front in the West all the way into 1918.
 
If Germany focuses specifically on russia the Russians have a short opportunity to go on the offensive, which they will because that is there policy(not wanting a repeat of Napoleon's invasion). They will likely follow the same plan however this time it won't just be a corp coming from the west, but several full armies. The German army will break the Russians early and will likely abandon Poland much earlier. Russia sues for terms as soon as the initial french attacks on Germany are repulsed with heavy casualties. Russia will agree to Poland's independence, as a puppet of Germany and possibly Finland. Austria will get some border revisions as will the ottomans.

Now Germany has to transfer its forces west. At this time they will probably bet that Britain won't declare war ans even if they do Germany is no longer as effected by the blockade. Germany invades across Belgium and with the french army focused on the offensive in a-l the Germans are able to inflict heavier losses in men material and territory. By the time any bef arrives it will be too late Germany will capture the channel ports and they will be trapped. Germany agrees to border adjustments taking all of a-l and Belgium as a puppet state. Britain now has no choice but to accept or face a Napoleonic situation again... this time with no allies

I'm pretty sure that if Germany didn't want to invade Belgium in the first place to avoid British intervention, invading now completely defeats the purpose, no?

Also, Frace marching across A-L repeatedly requires some serious repeated french bungling.

Anyways, UK accepting that peace is a no-no-no-no-no-no insane ASB stuff, requiring an ASB successful invasion and occupational of Britain. With highly diminished forces that has just went through invading Russia ,France ,Belgium and are under blockade. What actually happens is a land-lease to Britain, with the British empire progressing towards collapse earlier, and US intervening in the war after all sides are exhausted. Result: Mostly OTL

In WW2, Britain literally had all it's allies on the continent occupied and defeated, or privately supporting Germany. Britain was in an arguably worse position as compared to WW1, and the only thing seeing the UK through was their Royal Navy and Airforce. Making peace would allow the united continent to actually make those stuff at a massive pace and proceed to invade Britain shortly thereafter. Britain isn't just going to dash down the aisle of doom willingly. ASBs are required for that.
 
Unfortunately no.

The Russian "Germany goes east, not west" war plan was exactly that, retreat and make germany pay for every step taken until they run out of supplies and men.

Just like Napoleon.

They only attacked as they did OTL because everyone knew the Germans were going west first, and the French require the support.

If the Germans are going east first, the Russians will know it, and will let them come to them. Butterflying Tannenberg, but also some of the destruction wrought by Conrad as well.

Slow retreat while the Germans pay in blood will be the way this goes. OTL 1915, except in 1914 with the best of the Russian prewar armies and equipment intact.

times have changed since napoleon - russia cant fight without the industry in the west, and it cant live without the ukrainian food. revolution and collapse is coming to russia no matter what.

"make germany pay for every step taken" is easily said but hard to do if your army has neither boots, artillery ammo or fitting guns for the amunition they are given.

comparing a continental cp victory in ww1 to ww2 post fall of france is bad - there would be no apocalyptic war in the east demanding virtually everything germany has.
 
Equipment can be built, especially with more industrial capacity uncaptured, and doctrine and training were constantly improved during the war.

The French will figure out how to do their own reverse Verdun. May not go anywhere fast, but they will kill lots of Germans who have to be replaced.

Ignoring France doesn't make them go away.

So France will do what France utterly failed to do before 1918 because its now far harder to do?

Germany would not 'ignore' France. I said that France could be held with lesser forces while Russia was utterly gutted in the east. Then Germany turns, along with the Austrian army and launches the Schlieffen Plan through Belgium to conquer France. If Britain wanted to then send its tiny BEF to stand in the way of a 250 division avalanche, then the BEF would probably be destroyed.
 
So France will do what France utterly failed to do before 1918 because its now far harder to do?

You mean kill a milliion germans and not go very far? They did do that OTL, it will be no different here.
Germany would not 'ignore' France. I said that France could be held with lesser forces while Russia was utterly gutted in the east. Then Germany turns, along with the Austrian army and launches the Schlieffen Plan through Belgium to conquer France.

Russia lost OTL as well, absent tannenberg, and with Russia playing defense all the way, they will lose again, but it will take 2-3 years at least, and kill millions of Germans and Austrians.

If Britain wanted to then send its tiny BEF to stand in the way of a 250 division avalanche, then the BEF would probably be destroyed.

So nearly bankrupt and exhausted Germany and Austria-Hungary who have just lost the cream of their manpower in a bloody war of attrition, are going to expand the war and take on the biggest empire the world has ever seen intentionally. No, the British will threaten intervention over Belgium, and that will be enough to get the CP to offer a deal, and the French will see the writing on the wall and take it. Status quo in the west, maybe some colonies passed around, and Germany and AH try to deal with the mess they inherit in the east, and the fact they are broke, and British capital owns everything that can be bought with money in Europe.

Probably some socialist/communist/fascist revolution attempts all round.
 
You mean kill a milliion germans and not go very far? They did do that OTL, it will be no different here.

IMO, France can go nowhere in its assaults across the common border. It's artillery for the first two years of the war is just plain inadequate. The logistic requirements and operations in the broken terrain along a small front just won't work - that's why almost none of the Western Front fighting was along the common border historically. The amount of force the Germans might require to shut the French down might be around 1/3rd of the historical western front effort.

Russia lost OTL as well, absent tannenberg, and with Russia playing defense all the way, they will lose again, but it will take 2-3 years at least, and kill millions of Germans and Austrians.

IMO, the inept Russian army can't substitute for the missing battles of the Somme, Arras, Verdun, etc. Nor is France keeping pace with its historical performance on far worse terrain for offensive operations. Maybe 2 years to Russia's dissolution or surrender.

So nearly bankrupt and exhausted Germany and Austria-Hungary who have just lost the cream of their manpower in a bloody war of attrition, are going to expand the war and take on the biggest empire the world has ever seen intentionally.

Britain will have committed the blunder of allowing Germany to knock off its continental allies one by one. Britain cannot come out ahead by implementing Germany's optimal strategy instead of its own.

No, the British will threaten intervention over Belgium, and that will be enough to get the CP to offer a deal,

Yes, if the deal meant Britain brokering French capitulation on Germany's terms. If not, then the Germans would come through Belgium.
 
The whole point of this was no invasion of Belgium not delay it by 2-3 years

Just saying :)

Provided Britain was willing to deliver France to Germany, I'm sure Belgium could avoid an invasion. If Britain doesn't deliver France, and France is otherwise disposed not to make peace even after Russia has fallen and the whole of Europe outside the Isles has lined up on the side of Germany, then by way of Belgium it shall be.

In either case, I'm having a hard time seeing the sanity in a British neutrality that is still biased against Germany. Pro-German neutrality or true neutrality, these would be fine. But an anti-German biased neutrality while Germany is knocking off continental allies one by one? For Britain, that would be absolute madness.

Don't believe in fairy tales like Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, or British neutrality in 1914.
 
-Kaiser Wilhelm somehow decides against violating Belgian neutrality for concern of British involvement
-French execute plan XVII and encouter much tougher German resistance than expected, Germans settle on defensive and bleed much of the French army white
-Russian forces begin probing German defenses, armies face each other with results akin to Tannenberg in OTL as French suffer (seemingly) appalling casualties for minimal ground
-Germany moves additional forces to Russia and has OTL Masurian Lakes equivalent, Russians are out of Germany and Germans move on Poland
-British see these events and begin figuring out how to enter the war, eventually deciding that the Germans should not be allowed to gain ground in France or Russia if at all possible
-Germans begin moving on Poland and expel Russians by mid-1915, UK responds by demanding either Germany make peace with independent Poland or withdraw for status quo antebellum
-France makes minimal progress at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives, the pictures of the trenches from the Alsace Front are burned into minds across the globe
-Italy is courted by both sides for entrance into the war but remains neutral
-Without an Italian front to worry about the Austrians send reinforcements to Russia and apply additional pressure, allowing Romania to capture Chisnau and fortifying the Dniester river to the central Pripyet Marshes. Germany begins driving to Riga while the Austrians eye Kiev though know it will be some time before they might take it
-UK joins war effort in early 1916 and sends BEF to the Alsace front, helpful somewhat but not enough to turn the tide after German units are shifted from the East to shore up defenses. Germans remain on the defensive
-France/UK continues to slowly gain ground in Alsace but at horrific cost, by 1917 the French are devastated and morale is quite low
-Russia announces surrender in mid-1917 after Riga and Kiev fall, Germany gets Polish and Baltic puppets, Austria gets puppet Ukraine, and Romania gets modern Moldova
-CP assault hits West led by Germans and by Italians who are promised Corsica, Nice, Savoy, French Guiana, French Somaliland, and Tunisia in exchange for entrance against France and the UK. France does not expect the attack in the South and the on in Alsace is devastating, resulting in Paris falling less than 3 months later
-France loses the rest of Lorraine to Germany and Morocco becomes a German satellite. Italy takes Alps Maritimes and Savoy, while Austria takes indemnations. UK quietly backs out realizing that there is little they can do practically, they do take German Southwest Africa as a consolation prize
-Austria-Hungary has significant internal problems but eventually forms a Triple Monarchy with the Reichsdiet formed from 9 sources: Austria proper, Czech lands, Galicia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Transylvania, Bosnia, and Imperial appointment. An Imperial Council is also redrawn to be made of the regions elected governors while an Imperial representative sits on the elected councils for each province. German and Hungarian are made mandatory languages with massive expenditures in education across the nation. Other provinces teach native langauges as well, though they are not official for the whole of the government. This serves to keep AH alive although by no means unified.
-Ottomans are still alive and well but not nearly as friendly to German interests as they sat out the war, ironically this drives them into friendship with the UK
-Russians devolve into parliamentary monarchy with strong White leadership, communists are unable to come to power as peace is achieved with less loss of territory than OTL (Ukraine is smaller, Estonia and most of Byelorussia are still under Russian control).
 
France/UK continues to slowly gain ground in Alsace but at horrific cost, by 1917 the French are devastated and morale is quite low
Britain declares war, France then invades Belgium, Britain says, well we can’t undeclare war on Germany, now can we?
 
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