WW1 Western front reversed - France invades Belgium

[The Yogi]

In this scenario the French would have been much stronger than the Germans on the western front, since the Germans have around two thirds of their strength deployed against Russia. Their problem would be that they couldn't take advantage of this superiority because the front is so narrow - from the Swiss to the Belgian border (or possibly only to the Luxemburg border if the Germans had not invaded that coutry, which they would have no real reason to do without the Schlieffen plan). There I imagine that a reverse Schlieffen would have seemed alluring to them. Given the distribution of German forces between the fronts, it might actually lead to a knock out victory. If they just sit and wait, the best France can hope for is Germany doing Schlieffen three years later and drag Britain into the war.

I wouldn't agree that this scenario gives Germany perfect hindsight. The Kaisers orders to Moltke are OTL, and were given precisely because he was anxious about pushing Britain to war. He just lacked the information about them not being a logistical impossibility.

'Not screwed too much' in the sense that their industrial potential is kept essentially intact, it only suffers a dent by losing Longwy and Briey, and their manpower pool is intact. Britain would only care that French potential as a great power is not crippled. It would not care about French prestige or territorial/colonial empire integrity, nor there is much it can do about it. Given the circumstances, France could get a much worse peace deal, and it is going to reap a rather bad reputation as an aggressor.

Actually, as worried as Britain was about German naval pretensions, it was equally worried about the colonial aspirations of France and Russia. That was a combination the British thought they could not whitstand, and so they sought to improve relations with both at the expense of relations with Germany.

The British nightmare at the time was Russia invading India while France attacks in Africa.

I imagine a bloody French nose and a crippled Russia would actually not have sat too badly in Whitehall - as long as the Germans do not grow too powerful as a result.
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[Derek Pullem]

In this scenario the French would have been much stronger than the Germans on the western front, since the Germans have around two thirds of their strength deployed against Russia. Their problem would be that they couldn't take advantage of this superiority because the front is so narrow - from the Swiss to the Belgian border (or possibly only to the Luxemburg border if the Germans had not invaded that coutry, which they would have no real reason to do without the Schlieffen plan). There I imagine that a reverse Schlieffen would have seemed alluring to them. Given the distribution of German forces between the fronts, it might actually lead to a knock out victory. If they just sit and wait, the best France can hope for is Germany doing Schlieffen three years later and drag Britain into the war.

I wouldn't agree that this scenario gives Germany perfect hindsight. The Kaisers orders to Moltke are OTL, and were given precisely because he was anxious about pushing Britain to war. He just lacked the information about them not being a logistical impossibility.

The comment about "perfect hindsight" was the realisation by the German planners that they could hold off the french Army in Alsace-Lorraine with only a third of their troops given the proper defences. They (in fact all General Staff in Europe) still believed in offence over defence

 

[The Yogi]

The comment about "perfect hindsight" was the realisation by the German planners that they could hold off the french Army in Alsace-Lorraine with only a third of their troops given the proper defences. They (in fact all General Staff in Europe) still believed in offence over defence

True - but still the Kaiser gave that order. I'd think the expectation to be able to hold would arise less from a reliance on fortifications and trenches and more from the simle fact that the front would be too narrow for the French to bring all their superior strength to bear. Obviously the Kaiser must have thought this to be possible, otherwise his order would have been suicidal. And Moltke must have thought the same, or he would have argued that logistic problems aside, moving four armies east would have meant being overwhelmed by French strength before Russia could be brought to its knees.

I should have looked more at the map before posting. As pointed out, the German Belgian border is too short for it to be a meaningful way of broadening the front. At the very least, the French will have to go through Luxemburg as well (assuming the Germans did not already occupy it, which they might well have) and probably through southern Netherlands as well. That narrow border was a chockepoint for the Germans going the other way, but is a much more serious hinderance going east.

 

[SquireJames]

If Britain were to come into the war on the side of the Central Powers to preserve Belgian sovereignty, then it begs the question, would France even attempt it? I mean, with an allied Britain, France could turn all her attention eastward against Germany. With a hostile Britain, the most powerful Navy on earth now poised against her both in the Channel and the Med (and overseas in the colonies) France would be in a VERY sticky situation from the moment Britain comes into the war.

Would lead to a very interesting AH though, with France being taken down in the First World War, losing her overseas colonies (most likely to Britain, but possibly also Germany, Italy and maybe even Belgium given their position in central Africa). Would France go through the same issues as Germany in OTL? Would they turn Fascist, or would they more likely turn Communist? (given the Socialist bent in France at the time).

 

[The Yogi]

If Britain were to come into the war on the side of the Central Powers to preserve Belgian sovereignty, then it begs the question, would France even attempt it? I mean, with an allied Britain, France could turn all her attention eastward against Germany. With a hostile Britain, the most powerful Navy on earth now poised against her both in the Channel and the Med (and overseas in the colonies) France would be in a VERY sticky situation from the moment Britain comes into the war.

Would lead to a very interesting AH though, with France being taken down in the First World War, losing her overseas colonies (most likely to Britain, but possibly also Germany, Italy and maybe even Belgium given their position in central Africa). Would France go through the same issues as Germany in OTL? Would they turn Fascist, or would they more likely turn Communist? (given the Socialist bent in France at the time).

I believe that you're right that, should the French believe Britain would fight over Belgium, then they would never make the attempt to begin with.

 

[Perkeo]

The comment about "perfect hindsight" was the realisation by the German planners that they could hold off the french Army in Alsace-Lorraine with only a third of their troops given the proper defences. They (in fact all General Staff in Europe) still believed in offence over defence

And if Germany and others don't believe in offence over defence, WWI doesn't happen at all. It was essentially a preemptive strike against the thread of encirclement by France, Russia and Britain.

However, while it is pure hindsight that machine guns, trenches and barbed wire are the solution, it is NOT hindsight that the Schlieffen plan isn't. It should have been perfectly obvious beforehand that the plan could easily go wrong EXACTLY the way it did IOTL. So if Wilhelm II was just a little more erratic than he was OTL, he might just by accident have done something right.

If France had (AFAIK unlike OTL) chosen to march through Belgium rather than directly to Alsace Lorraine, they would have been the obvious agressor to World opinion, and even if Britain did join on the French side, they would have faced at least twice the coast line and enemy naval bases A LOT closer to home than OTL.

The question is, what happens in Russia? Even if the Germans do destroy a substantial portion of the Russian army and start marching east, the Russians have a lot of room to retreat, just as against Napoleon or Hitler.

 

[machine3589]

The question is, what happens in Russia? Even if the Germans do destroy a substantial portion of the Russian army and start marching east, the Russians have a lot of room to retreat, just as against Napoleon or Hitler.

The better question is weather the Germans march east if most of the Russian armies arent utterly destroyed. IOTL, they didnt really march out of what is today Poland until Russia started imploding from the inside exactly because they feared of repeating Nappy`s mistake. Goes to show that the Kaiserreich, for all its mistakes, beats the Third Reich on the sensibility scale by several orders of magnitude.

 

[Perkeo]

The better question is weather the Germans march east if most of the Russian armies arent utterly destroyed. IOTL, they didnt really march out of what is today Poland until Russia started imploding from the inside exactly because they feared of repeating Nappy`s mistake. Goes to show that the Kaiserreich, for all its mistakes, beats the Third Reich on the sensibility scale by several orders of magnitude.

But how do they make sure that Russia implodes from the inside rather than rebuilding their army and launch a counterattack? Ending the war is not trivial - but not impossible either.

If they are really smart, they conquer congress Poland and make an arrangement in anology to the Austrian Ausgleich (this would be a 180° turn in policy, but so was the original Ausgleich).

 

[machine3589]

But how do they make shure that Russia implodes from the inside rather than rebuilding their army and launch a counterattack?

By allowing Lenin a trip from Switzerland to Russia, like they did IOTL.

If they are really smart, they conquer congress Poland and make an arrangement in anology to the Austrian Ausgleich (this would be a 180° turn in policy, but so was the original Ausgleich).

AFAIK the plan was to turn Poland into a vassal state, so I`m not sure this would be possible.

 

[Lord Douglas]

Actually, as worried as Britain was about German naval pretensions, it was equally worried about the colonial aspirations of France and Russia. That was a combination the British thought they could not whitstand, and so they sought to improve relations with both at the expense of relations with Germany.

The British nightmare at the time was Russia invading India while France attacks in Africa.

I imagine a bloody French nose and a crippled Russia would actually not have sat too badly in Whitehall - as long as the Germans do not grow too powerful as a result.

I disagree with this. The whole thrust of British foreign policy from 1902-odd onwards until the outbreak of war was to draw closer to France and later Russia in order to contain Germany. They resolved virtually all their territorial differences with the two in the decade until 1914 - see for example the Anglo-Russian Treaty of 1907 delineating various spheres of influence in Persia. By 1914 Britain had nothing to worry about with regards to France and Russia. The recurring nightmare of British policy-makers was German control of the Channel ports, permitting a surprise invasion. A French defeat would not have sat well with the British Government at all - in fact it would probably engender a similar reaction to the fall of France in 1940 in the USA.

 

[Dskaar]

My understanding of what i learned about world war 1 was that Austria-Hungary and their Archduke were victims to Serbian Terrorists. Austria Hungary enraged over their leaders assassination responded the same way as the U.S would today.(Basically they were upset and were looking for who did it so that they could exact revenge). However when Austria Hungary declared war on Serbia, Russia entered on Serbia's side because they had some kind of thing going on between the two. Germany knew what was going on so they decided to help the victim of the war, they were not power hungry or evil quite yet, that wouldn't come until the French pushed Germany into the greatest depression ever known after the war, hence the Germans looked for a leader. They picked the Nazi's. I don't exactly know why France or the ottoman empire entered the war, but Britain never did like France. They had been in off and on wars basically since the two kingdoms came about. The only reason Britain entered the war was because Germany Invaded Belgium. If the French Had invaded Belgium then the British i don't think would hesitate to go to war with France.
However i wouldn't mind learning why France and the ottomans entered the war.

 

[Wendell]

Seeking a seeming shortcut to victory when their initial offensives in Alsatia turn a bloodbath, things start to turn pear-shaped for Russia as the bulk of German military power is thrown East, and Italy and the Ottomans join the CP; miscalculation about the willingness of Belgium to resist the invasion and the Dutch to intervene, which makes them think it is an easy march to the Rhineland.

So, we're still going with the assassination in Sarajevo as the POD and seeing the war waged in 1914? It looks like the necessary change here, as some seem to be suggesting, is for the Germans to pursue a different, east-first strategy to push the French into getting around a German defensive position in A-L. It's interesting, but seems out of character without earlier changes that could remake the whole war and even its causus belli.

 

[Cook]

It's interesting, but seems out of character without earlier changes that could remake the whole war and even its causus belli.

Moltke the Senior’s Strategic plan was for Germany to stay defensive on the Western Front and advance into Russia and secure a line that they could hold until the Russians exhausted themselves and sued for peace. This strategy acknowledged that Germany lacked the strength to achieve a knockout blow in a war against both France and Russia and was designed to secure Germany until negotiations could be started, negotiations that Germany would be going into from a secure position.

Moltke’s defensive strategy was abandoned by Schlieffen who sought to repeat the success of 1870 and crush France in the six weeks before Russia was fully mobilised. It was the urgent nature of the Schleiffen plan, requiring France to be defeated before Russia fully mobilised that forced Germany to treat Russia’s General Mobilisation order of 28 July 1914 as a declaration of war; they simply could not afford to wait.

 

[Wendell]

Moltke the Senior’s Strategic plan was for Germany to stay defensive on the Western Front and advance into Russia and secure a line that they could hold until the Russians exhausted themselves and sued for peace. This strategy acknowledged that Germany lacked the strength to achieve a knockout blow in a war against both France and Russia and was designed to secure Germany until negotiations could be started, negotiations that Germany would be going into from a secure position.

Moltke’s defensive strategy was abandoned by Schlieffen who sought to repeat the success of 1870 and crush France in the six weeks before Russia was fully mobilised. It was the urgent nature of the Schleiffen plan, requiring France to be defeated before Russia fully mobilised that forced Germany to treat Russia’s General Mobilisation order of 28 July 1914 as a declaration of war; they simply could not afford to wait.

So this really does come down to there not being a Schlieffen Plan or similar for a war against the powers on either side of Germany?

 

[Chengar Qordath]

If we want a PoD to avoid the Schlieffen plan replacing Moltke the Elder's plan, the Russo-Japanese War might be a good starting point. IIRC, Russia's less than impressive performance in said war played a big part in convincing the German General Staff that it could knock France out the war before Russia could fully mobilize.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

So this really does come down to there not being a Schlieffen Plan or similar for a war against the powers on either side of Germany?

Without the Schlieffen plan Germany doesn't go to war. Starting a war and sitting on the defensive is not a plan. Russia is not defeatable quickly and time is not on Germany's side, especially by pre-war reckoning. Read up on the history of the Schliffen plan and you'll see that Germany won't go to war without the quick victory plan.

 

[Wendell]

If we want a PoD to avoid the Schlieffen plan replacing Moltke the Elder's plan, the Russo-Japanese War might be a good starting point. IIRC, Russia's less than impressive performance in said war played a big part in convincing the German General Staff that it could knock France out the war before Russia could fully mobilize.

What about an earlier war being lost by Germany, like one with the United States in 1902 fought mostly at sea?

 

[The Yogi]

If we want a PoD to avoid the Schlieffen plan replacing Moltke the Elder's plan, the Russo-Japanese War might be a good starting point. IIRC, Russia's less than impressive performance in said war played a big part in convincing the German General Staff that it could knock France out the war before Russia could fully mobilize.

The PoD is August 1st, 1914, when the Kaiser historically asked Moltke to stand on the defensive in the west and march east instead, because he was anxious about war with Britain. Moltke said it could not be done, and the Kaiser believed him. But assume he had talked with the chief of Military transport Gen. von Baad, who later proved it was perfectly feasible?

 

[Cook]

So this really does come down to there not being a Schlieffen Plan or similar for a war against the powers on either side of Germany?

I think so yes.

Without the Schlieffen plan Germany doesn't go to war. Starting a war and sitting on the defensive is not a plan. .

Moltke the Senior realised that the period of decisive battles was past, that the German Empire could not count on a rapid victory and would have to rely on securing a good defensive position on the Franco German border and in Russia and entering into negotiations.

Schleiffen believed that a decisive victory was still possible, even though the flaws in his plan were becoming visible before he’d retired.

Moltke the Younger just pretended the flaws in the plan didn’t exist and paid no attention to the consequences of entering Belgium and Britain entering the war.

Russia is not defeatable quickly and time is not on Germany's side, especially by pre-war reckoning. Read up on the history of the Schliffen plan and you'll see that Germany won't go to war without the quick victory plan.

Without the Schleiffen Plan Germany would not have faced the urgency at the start of August 1914 to declare war and defeat France once Russia started mobilising, more time would have been available for diplomacy to resolve things or at least contain them to the Balkans and prevent a general European war.

 

[The Yogi]

Without the Schleiffen Plan Germany would not have faced the urgency at the start of August 1914 to declare war and defeat France once Russia started mobilising, more time would have been available for diplomacy to resolve things or at least contain them to the Balkans and prevent a general European war.

The PoD is not there not being a Schlieffen plan to begin with, but a different outcome to a historical conversation between Willhelm II and Motlke on August 1st 1914, assuming a better informed Kaiser.

So all up until August 1st 1914 happens as in OTL. The Schlieffen plan is on the table until that very moment, when the Kaiser panics (historical) and succedees in forcing Moltke to comply (counterfactic).

In this situation, Germany would not have issued an ultimatum to France, because it would have been in Germany's interest to delay or if possible avoid altogether a war with France. But declaring war on Russia in response of a Russian DoW on Austria was pretty much unavoidable. Austria was not going to back down, and neither was Russia. And abandoning Austria wasn't an option either.

And France, on the other hand, is not going to sit by idly while Austria and Germany crush Russia.