Unlike OTL, German U-Boats here have not sunk the Lusitania and they have not resorted to unrestricted submarine warfare. Zimmerman has not sent his telegram, and German diplomacy wrt the US has been far better overall.
Absent the American entry into the war, the Entente has collapsed on the continent. However, it didn't go down without a fight, and overly-ambitious German offensives against France certainly helped in that regard. It would be well into 1919 that French lines finally broke for good, a delay that put considerable strain on the German economy and empowered the most extreme elements of the German General Staff.
The only positive development for the Allies was the complete collapse of the Ottoman front in Palestine in early 1918, with the entire Turkish force cut off and destroyed. A subsequent landing near the ancient city of Ephesus by a combined Allied force eventually provided the stepping stone to the occupation of all Ottoman holdings east of the Sea of Marmara.
The terms offered by Berlin after Greece and Italy concluded a separate peace treaty were incredibly harsh and basically made Germany the unquestioned hegemon of continental Europe, conditions Britain could not accept. Eventually, Germany set up puppet governments in France and Belgium, prompting British occupation of their colonies.
Germany proceeded to demobilize a large part of their military, although the need to garrison France and also prosecute the increasingly bloodier guerilla warfare in the occupied parts of Russia still required a sizeable force.
As efforts to extract meaningful supplies of food from Ukraine kept coming up short, and Britain was adamant in its refusal to accept the totally reasonable German demands of complete European domination, the economic outlook for the German civilian economy looked bleak. In order to finally end the blockade and bring about final victory, the High Seas Fleet attempted a decisive action against the Royal Navy in the North Sea, only to get a sever beating at the Second Battle of Jutland, and then almost completely destroyed at the creatively-named Third Battle of Jutland.
These naval victories emboldened Britain to continue its naval blockade and support groups hostile to the Central Powers in mainland Europe in the hopes of denying Germany the respite it needed to use the entire economic power of the continent to build a navy larger than anything Britain could afford.
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So, if Germany gets to dominate Europe and Britain gets all the colonies, and Britain and Germany cannot agree on a peace deal (Germany not wanting all the blood and treasure it had expended to be in vain and Britain not wanting a continental hegemon capable of eventually invading her) how on earth does this end?
Will Germany eventually manage to build up a fleet capable of defeating the RN or would the continued losses bring down the German government before that happened?