WW1 starts in Winter

lets say the events the started WW1 happen 5 months later, Instead of early August for DOWs, its early January 1915.

So its colder, more snow, more mud, darker longer.
Two Turkish battleships have been delivered.
A few more dreadnoughts have been worked up.

With the longer nights are the Germans more aggressive early with their navy?
Is the German attack plan in the west still feasible?
Any attack plans like the Austrian in the east seem awful. Do they stay on defense?
 

Marc

Donor
No one unless utterly stupid or desperate, or both, starts fighting a war in Winter. Even nowadays.
Now if you want to postulate the Great War starting in the Spring/Summer of 1915 there are some supposings that can lead there - and it has been debated about on this board on and off for some years.
 
Last edited:
No one unless utterly stupid or desperate, or both, starts fighting a war in Winter. Even nowadays.

In that case the Austrians and Germans would just let pass the assassination of the Arch Duke? Seems unlikely they could just delay the war for months until the weather got better? If the Russians mobilize the war process almost has to start.
 
Delaying the murder of Franz Ferdinand until the winter is sort of an interesting POD. The problem is that they were in Sarajevo to attend SUMMER maneuvers and the possibility that the assassination was planned all along to start at least a Balkan war, hence the timing.

Suppose for whatever reason the July plot fails but one of the conspirators travels to Vienna on his own and kills a senior Austrian or Hungarian royal family member or politician in Vienna during the winter holidays. The police would be more inclined to take the view that this guy was a lone nut just due to the event not happening in Bosnia, and even the Austrian government would not be crazy enough to try to use it to settle scores in Serbia in the winter. The assassination of the Archduchess Elizabeth did not spark a continental war after all.
 
Assuming that for whatever insane notion the war does indeed kick off in January. These would be some of the immediate results.
  1. Scratch the Russian mobilization plan, these guys aren't showing up to the border until well past spring. There simply isn't a winter proof transportation system to get the troops off the Russian farms and to the front line. Conscripts living further away than 20 kilometers from the nearest railway won't even receive the call up until after the spring planting.
  2. Without an Eastern Front the A-H focus even more on Serbia. Probably allowing for an extra axis of attack south from Vojvodina across the Danube east of Belgrade and then along the Morava river. (Though crossing the Danube in January is going to be a bitch.)
  3. German, Belgian, British, and French mobilization would be slightly slower but not significantly so, and not in comparison to each other. There might be some shipping delays for the BEF, but nothing to major.
  4. As long as the armies in Belgium and France would maneuver they would be only small decreases in marching speed, say 2 kilometers a day. Though it is important to note that the reserves would be brought in by train at much the same tempo as in Autumn 1914. Giving a definite edge to the defenders. However once they dig in the Armies would be truly bogged down. Positions could be anywhere come Spring, one could see German cavalry advancing rapidly around and past French concentrations using the good Belgian roads. Or the German siege guns could be stuck back at the Maas crossings.
  5. Come spring it is likely that German and Austrian armies will be first out of the gate, and manage to advance into Russia. Due to the fact that the Russians are still gathering most of their forces after the winter.
  6. Even if the Ottomans do enter the War, doubtful due to no stopping of delivery on the Dreadnoughts, and assuming that they will still need several months before being able to mobilize after the war has started. There won't be the mass casualties of Turkish troops on the Caspian front during the winter. As troops won't start heading to the front until after the snows melt.
  7. Irish Home rule would have gone into effect. Drawing several regiments of the British Army into Ireland in order to quell the disturbances that were sure to follow.
 
Im not sure what happens with britain in this, as there reason for going to war hasnt yet happened, and they may get across how serious they value Belgium neutrality.

Id also like to think that without everyone mobilising their armies that diplomacy might prevail
 
Yeah I'm wondering if piece might have a better chance in this scenario as there is going to take way longer to assemble the armies
 
I suppose if per J Von Axle's comment above, Russian mobilization is delayed. The Germans could take two approaches.

1) They could encourage Austria in hit Serbia quickly with the 2nd army still deployed in the south, and then everybody settles up politically before the Russians can do anything about it. Peace happens.
2) They good go: "Cool. This is the perfect time to start a war, Russian mobilization is delayed more time to beat France."
 
2) They good go: "Cool. This is the perfect time to start a war, Russian mobilization is delayed more time to beat France."

The Germans, if they were very lucky in the summer of 1914, had at least some chance of knocking France out of the war quickly. I struggle to imagine even the Germans believing that they can ram their armies down the throat of the French fast enough with the season against them. IMO things go much better for the French if the Germans invade in winter.

That said, I could easily imagine things running out of control and the Germans feeling they have to invade France or else they're sure to be cooked once summer of 1915 comes.

fasquardon
 
Top