WW1 starts in May of 1905?

IOTL, May 1905 saw Franz Joseph visiting a number of cities, including Mostar. It was believed that an assassination attempt was going to take place, but the Emperor went anyway and nothing happened. Let's say a situation similar to OTL Sarajevo happens and he is assassinated; the diplomatic aftermath goes to all hell and war breaks out; what are the sides and who are the players?
 
Everything is decided by Japan here. Does Britain go to war with Russia via the Anglo-Japanese alliance, or not?

Well, by 1907 Britain, France, and Russia had come to an agreement that Germany was the enemy; the question for me is whether or not two years was enough to change the UK's mind, or if they were just working out the idea of the Triple Entente.
 
IOTL, May 1905 saw Franz Joseph visiting a number of cities, including Mostar. It was believed that an assassination attempt was going to take place, but the Emperor went anyway and nothing happened. Let's say a situation similar to OTL Sarajevo happens and he is assassinated; the diplomatic aftermath goes to all hell and war breaks out; what are the sides and who are the players?
I am not sure we will get a general war in this case. The big difference is that it was not the unloved hair that got offed, but the head of an old respected royal family!
Also very important is who will do the assassinating here. And how will the alliances and givances play out.
Because I am unsure if the British are as deep in the French pocket and have as bad relations with Germany as later on. Also how secure are France and Russia towards Britain and each other? Not to forget, Italy may be more CP here... And that the Balcans are still more in the Ottoman sphere then later on.
Also how will A-H react? They lost their monarch and have all the reason to demand recompense and Imo most royal houses would agree, at least as a gut reaction directly after the fact. Later on it could change, but would A-H wait as long as OTL?

So in the end, the devil is in the details here as always in alternate history, without more information one could construct it both ways.
But for me, I think because it is so much worse then OTL, that the mayor monarchic nations will hold still for a time and that gives A-H the chance to act. And that it will act faster then OTL because FJ was afaik very well regarded internaly and externaly.
 

DougM

Donor
I doubt it turns into get WW1 we know. The system of interconnected alliances was not as well established at this point. They had another 9 years or so iotl to “solidify” in the minds of the politicians. At this point they are a bit newer so may me easier to ignore.
Also as noted with it being the actual Emperor I think AH gets a much bigger area to work in. So it will most likely get away with a LOT more the iotl.
Add in that I don’t think Germany feels as trapped and out of time in 1905 so may not push the war.
So between having leaway to maneuver and with some countries less inclined to go to war I think that Russia may not get the support for the war it had. So you may see Russia being smart enough to stay out if it does not have firm support from its allies. Or you may see Russia enter and Germany stay out so you get a AH vs Russia war.
Either case would be noticeable in being a LOT smaller then WW1
 
Aviation would not be developed enough to be a strategic factor, so you have a war with 19th century characteristics. Not sure about some of the chemical weapons. And radio?
 
I doubt it turns into get WW1 we know. The system of interconnected alliances was not as well established at this point. They had another 9 years or so iotl to “solidify” in the minds of the politicians. At this point they are a bit newer so may me easier to ignore.
Also as noted with it being the actual Emperor I think AH gets a much bigger area to work in. So it will most likely get away with a LOT more the iotl.
Add in that I don’t think Germany feels as trapped and out of time in 1905 so may not push the war.
So between having leaway to maneuver and with some countries less inclined to go to war I think that Russia may not get the support for the war it had. So you may see Russia being smart enough to stay out if it does not have firm support from its allies. Or you may see Russia enter and Germany stay out so you get a AH vs Russia war.
Either case would be noticeable in being a LOT smaller then WW1

What if we assume the worst case scenario; That is that everything goes bad here?
 
Franz Ferdinand was quite unpopular in Vienna, that's why the Austrian officials wasted one month until they did something. They wouldn't be able to do that ITTL. They'd demand satisfaction immediately, and nobody would be able to object.
 
What if we assume the worst case scenario; That is that everything goes bad here?

Than you have a Triple Alliance (Germany, A-H, and Italy) vs. France, Russia, and Serbia, with the Russians also potentially having a Pacific sideshow. Considering this is pre-annexation of Bosnia (Which is a key bone in Serbian-Habsburg tensions), Italy has yet to receive any major snubs to her expansionist ambitions, and given the OE (while still looking sick) hasn't been perceived as losing all her independent vigor yet, the much more valube Tunis is probably a bigger temptation for the start of Italy's desired Med. Empire. In all likelihood, I'd say Russia would come to quick terms with Japan in order to focus on the more immediate concerns (She can always turn around and get influence in Manchuria back later; right now the Fleet is needed in the Baltic) as well as placate the British nerves in hopes of drawing their benevolant support (IE Russian bonds floating on the London Exchanges and contacts for war material).

Though, I'd say alot depends on where the OE steps in on this. Obviously, the Bosnian Question will want to be solved, and I could see Britain nodding to the Sultan to reoccupy "His" province if she takes a hard anti-TA stance or at the very least try to set up an international conference on the matter. The Ottomans in my estimation will want to try to stay neutral, but arguably could "win the peace" since due to her key place at the center of Habsburg-Russian tensions they'd be at the table for the post war settlement.
 
1905? Wasn't Russia already at war with Japan at that time? And didn't the Russian relief fleet just shoot up a bunch of British fishing trawlers because they mixed up the North Sea and the Chinese Sea?

So I guess it's safe to say that who ever ends up fighting whom, Mother Russia will be f'''ed
 
1905? Wasn't Russia already at war with Japan at that time? And didn't the Russian relief fleet just shoot up a bunch of British fishing trawlers because they mixed up the North Sea and the Chinese Sea?

So I guess it's safe to say that who ever ends up fighting whom, Mother Russia will be f'''ed

The actual violence of the Russo-Japanese war is basically over by May, and the Dogger Banks incident is well settled. Given they're already basically out of ships they can send to the area, if affairs in Europe blow up Russia is almost guranteed to sue for peace with Japan so they can focus on protecting Serbia, which means Tokyo can probably get modestly better terms. All of instead of just half of Sakhalin, perhaps. The only way the war would continue is if Japan gets extra greedy and Britain is willing to bankroll them to an even greater extent (unlikely; a crisis on the Continent is going to be far more salient to them than some minor disagreement over borders in the Far East).

Now, the question of the domestic unrest in Russia and the fact that she's just burned through her war chest would far more salient.
 
Aviation would not be developed enough to be a strategic factor, so you have a war with 19th century characteristics. Not sure about some of the chemical weapons. And radio?

You're spot on about aviation: forget it--although a war would spur development. Mechanized infantry / armor would be a stretch, given that Otto cycle internal combustion engines in 1905 were somewhat quirky and prone to breakdowns. I'd guess some sort of steam-powered armored behemoth (think a road engine with plating and some sort of weapon) might be tried, but quite possibly discarded since it wouldn't mover very fast at all. Chemical weapons, on the other hand, wouldn't be out of the question, particularly if we're talking about relatively rudimentary ones like chlorine. And as to radio: by 1905, wireless telegraphy was still developing but feasible. That might have played a significant role.

Getting back to the original premise: if it's Franz Josef who is assassinated, Serbia (a much smaller nation than in 1914) will find itself facing an array of upset-to-hostile larger nations, and I'd include Russia in that group: Nicholas wouldn't want anyone getting ideas, especially after Bloody Sunday. Long story short, any war would be nasty, brutish, and short, with Russia and others standing aside while the Habsburg Empire taught Serbia a few lessons. The punch line there would be that if Serbia weren't annexed in fact, it would be in practical terms, and the seeds of another conflict would be sown. You wouldn't have a general Euro war in 1905, but perhaps ten years down the road, you might well--but this time resulting from intramural strife within the Habsburg Empire.
 
a wackier WW-1 might come from France somehow getting involved in the Russo-Japanese War in 1904.

Its before the Entente in 1905, so Britain declaring war on Russia and France per the treaty, then Germany says 'NOWS MY CHANCE!!!" and 'supports' cousin Edward by implementing the Schlieffen plan.
 

Driftless

Donor
Depending on location and the length of the war, you might see some powered airships employed for observation. The Germans, Italians, and French had some successful powered and controlled airship experiments by 1905 and earlier.
 
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Did Tsushima occur as in real life? Could the Russian Fleet be saved only to be sunk by Britain or Germany if not out of action due to a repeated world trip from the South China Sea back to Europe?
 
Did Tsushima occur as in real life? Could the Russian Fleet be saved only to be sunk by Britain or Germany if not out of action due to a repeated world trip from the South China Sea back to Europe?

Given their displayed abilities at Tsushima, a ornery colony of penguins could have done in the Second Pacific Squadron.
 

Driftless

Donor
I think the last landfall for the Russian fleet before the historic battle was on May 11 at Cam Ranh Bay, with the battle taking place May 27 & 28. What date is the assassination attack? If the Russian fleet is at sea, do they receive information before the battle?
 

trajen777

Banned
If their is a war .....

1 italy stays with triple alliance
2 Italian army per plans moves an army up to cover southern Germany
3 Germany told by gb not to invade thru all of Belgium
4 german army clips southern Belgium, And drives deep into France
5 Russia in revolution try's to make peace with japan. Japan asks for original war goals of all of Siberia
6 gb neutral
7 oe and Bulgaria join cp and defeat Serbia
8 Russia invaded, from all fronts,
Now does France and Russia surrender, and the key is what does Russia and France give up
 
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