WW1? Size of BEF to deter Germany

[euromellows]

I hope this is a simple question. Historically, the WW1 peacetime BEF was approximately six infantry divisions and one cavalry division that would be deployed to the continent (France) in the event of war. Presumably the Imperial German Army, in their planning for the invasion of France through Belgium, must have taken into calculation the size, armament and deployment of the BEF and, on balance, considered the benefits outweighed the risk. I understand the BEF was considered to be high quality by the other armies of Europe, so I assume the German's calculation of the BEF threat was determined primarily by its small size.

My question is really twofold: 1) How much larger would the BEF have to be in order for it to be an effective deterrent to German plans to invade Belgium?
2) How realistic would this be for Britain to achieve? Undoubtedly any peace time expansion would come at the expense of the Royal Navy, but would it jeopardise the combat capability of the RN in a serious way? Would it be politically tenable?

Thank you for the consideration.

 

[naraic]

1) Much much bigger. Let's say five times the size.

2) Not very realistic. The British army in this era was better than any other army in the world at spending money.

In 1913 they were spending about 40% of what the Germans were spending and they had about a twentieth of the men under arms.

If you were to bringing conscription in 1910 and get rid of professional army you could probably build a sufficiently sized force at the cost Britain paid historically but that wouldn't have been politically feasible.

You could increase army funding by 10-20% on the historical level without effecting the combat capability of the Royal Navy by cutting predreads which had limited real combat capability when war broke out.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

The problem with a larger BEF is how do you get it to Europe quickly enough? Short of it being permanently based in Belgium or France the size is almost besides the point, because the Schlieffen Plan was predicated on winning before a large enough BEF could be deployed to the continent to tip the balance.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Basically the British would have to introduce a form of conscription (which alone makes this impossible to achieve in peacetime British society before WW1) in order to build a pool of soldiers large enough to even start to match the continental army system

Haldane's reforms went some way to addressing the shortcomings made apparent by the Boer war and paid dividends for British attempts to raise the New Army - but in no way shape or form would it have allowed Britain to stand up a Continental Army sized force in 1914!

I am not convinced that 'moving' said army had it existed to the Continent is the issue in that OTL only 6 Divisions and 5 Cavalry Brigades existed on the outbreak of war with 4 Divisions and 4 cav Brigades (as a division) sent to France straight away with the remaining units retained in the UK for fear of a German invasion

Had the army been bigger then more could have been moved earlier - as it was the 4th and 6th Divisions and 5th Cav Brigade began moving only at the end of Aug beginning of Sept once it was clear no threat of invasion existed. The British were short of troops not sealift capacity.

 

[BlondieBC]

Thoughts

• To deter the Germans, I am assuming not invading Belgium. You have to create a situation where a different war plan is a better option. IMO, this would mean guarantee Belgium neutrality from both France and German aggression. So the UK has to be clearly neutral to who wins a war in mainland Europe.
• You need a big enough number to make a psychological impact on the Germans. This means a round number of men or Armies. My guess is 1 million is the number the Germans pay attention to.
• You need probably 400K or so sitting in SE England where they can be rapidly deployed to Flanders. Or more realistically, to invade Germany directly. The war plans are fascinating. Think D-Day in the German Blight.

Now to your question of the RN, it has been a while since i looked at flipping Army to Navy spending, and vice versa. It would clearly be perceived to weaken the Royal Navy capabilities quite significantly. I guess we could debate how much it would have really hurt the capability of the Royal Navy.

 

[Aphrodite]

The British need about 20 divisions to convince the Germans that war was hopeless. They had 6 so they need to find 14 more

These could easily and cheaply been found by improving the Territorial Army. The Germans planned on using their reserve divisions in a front line capacity so they'd be easily convinced. The cost shouldn't be much- about 2-3 million pounds per divisions would be dramatic. Figure a five year program so somewhere between 5-8,000,000 pounds a year

The continent is spending a lot more on their armies than the numbers suggest. Britain actually paid their soldiers while the conscripts basically paid a tax of their foregone pay. A British private earned about 400 francs plus room and board while a Frenchmen got 30

 

[naraic]

The British need about 20 divisions to convince the Germans that war was hopeless. They had 6 so they need to find 14 more

These could easily and cheaply been found by improving the Territorial Army. The Germans planned on using their reserve divisions in a front line capacity so they'd be easily convinced. The cost shouldn't be much- about 2-3 million pounds per divisions would be dramatic. Figure a five year program so somewhere between 5-8,000,000 pounds a year

The continent is spending a lot more on their armies than the numbers suggest. Britain actually paid their soldiers while the conscripts basically paid a tax of their foregone pay. A British private earned about 400 francs plus room and board while a Frenchmen got 30

If you can do it on 5 million pounds a year that's probably a little more than maintenance cost and manning costs and scrappage income for the predread fleet.

 

[Aphrodite]

If you can do it on 5 million pounds a year that's probably a little more than maintenance cost and manning costs and scrappage income for the predread fleet.

Probably so. Most army spending goes for pay, food, lodging and clothing. Very little gets spent on actual weapons sinc the terrtorial army already existed improving its quality isn't that hard.

Scrapping the old predreadnoughts would provide a large amount of material for the army as well. A predreadnought carried 16 6in guns and about 48 smaller ones. The Russians stripped their ships of these guns to aid the defense of Port Arthur so they can easily be used in an army role. Given the professional standards of the British army, any four year veteran should have been fit to be an NCO

 

[naraic]

Probably coastal defences. Bulk up the battery in Dover. Early ww1 before the Dover Barrage was laid (minefield) the predreads were used to escort troop convoys in the channel. Bulking up the shore batteries may be the cost of getting rid of the Predreads.

 

[Riain]

Germany deployed 7 armies against 5 French armies and the Belgian and British armies which were half the size of a French or German Army. In addition I believe that the Belgian army was expected to be bottled up in Antwerp so the Germans allocated 4 divisions to mask Antwerp. So the equation is 6 2/3 German armies against 5 1/2 French / British armies.

Another 6-12 Territorial divisions would give 6 1/2 divisions facing the 6 2/3 German divisions. I don't know if that would have dettered the Germans, but those are the rough numbers.

 

[Aphrodite]

The problem with a larger BEF is how do you get it to Europe quickly enough? Short of it being permanently based in Belgium or France the size is almost besides the point, because the Schlieffen Plan was predicated on winning before a large enough BEF could be deployed to the continent to tip the balance.

Moving an extra fifteen divisions wouldn't put much strain on the supply services. The french will be more than happy to preposition the big bulky materials that are the bread and butter of an army. Horses will be the biggest factor- half the trains of the German army were for their horses.

Germany deployed 7 armies against 5 French armies and the Belgian and British armies which were half the size of a French or German Army. In addition I believe that the Belgian army was expected to be bottled up in Antwerp so the Germans allocated 4 divisions to mask Antwerp. So the equation is 6 2/3 German armies against 5 1/2 French / British armies.

Another 6-12 Territorial divisions would give 6 1/2 divisions facing the 6 2/3 German divisions. I don't know if that would have dettered the Germans, but those are the rough numbers.

Given the German leadership wasn't all that convinced they were going to win, deterring won't take much. There are many other factors the Germans will consider:

The French had large reserve armies as well. Though the Germans thought the French wouldn't use them initially, they realized that these units could be used later. The French fortresses had another 800,000 men in them and then there are those Russians mobilizing in the rear

The Germans never really liked their plan it was just better than anything else

 

[RodentRevolution]

It is not so much a question of size as intent. If the British beef up their Army in any way that signals an intent to intervene on the Continent that will be significant. The Germans were painfully aware that by their own formula they were short 8 corps (or 16 infantry divisions plus supports) of the margin that they felt was required to ensure the defeat of the French. If the German decision makers had not convinced themselves Britain would stand aside it unlikely they would have been so enamoured of sticking their fist into the tar baby that a France supported by the fiscal and naval might of the British Empire would become when they had a reckoning with Russia to attend to.

Under German assumptions of the time France has to be beaten in 40 odd days if the troops are to become available to fight the Russian steamroller. Now we know that the Russians were not as fearsome as imagined but they were the driving factor in German calculations. The British can have all the numbers in the world but if the Germans still expect them to dither and do nothing they will likely roll the dice in order to beat the chimera of Russian rearmament. If the British do look like they mean to jump in from the start then the Germans may well blink before they commit themselves to war rather than waiting till the Marne battles as per OTL.

 

[djconklin]

Anyone want to run a campaign game. starting say, in 1890? Then we could test the idea. I have a map, but is too big for this place!

I want to be the Russians.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Moving an extra fifteen divisions wouldn't put much strain on the supply services. The french will be more than happy to preposition the big bulky materials that are the bread and butter of an army. Horses will be the biggest factor- half the trains of the German army were for their horses.

Not the supply services per se, rather shipping and deploying in country with a bigger army.

 

[Aphrodite]

Not the supply services per se, rather shipping and deploying in country with a bigger army.

Your going to have to do better than this. The British managed to move and deploy six divisions OTL. The added 14 are not going to be difficult

1. Shipping? Really? The largest merchant marine in the world and the British are going to have trouble finding shipping for an extra 14 divisions to go across the channel?

2. Deploying in country? Really, the British are going to be in a friendly country where the civilian authorities are helping in every possible way. The Germans managed to deploy six times as many in hostile territory.

Don't forget that the threads assumption is that the British have years to solve these problems. Not every change is going to help the Kaiserreich

It is not so much a question of size as intent. If the British beef up their Army in any way that signals an intent to intervene on the Continent that will be significant. The Germans were painfully aware that by their own formula they were short 8 corps (or 16 infantry divisions plus supports) of the margin that they felt was required to ensure the defeat of the French. If the German decision makers had not convinced themselves Britain would stand aside it unlikely they would have been so enamoured of sticking their fist into the tar baby that a France supported by the fiscal and naval might of the British Empire would become when they had a reckoning with Russia to attend to.

Under German assumptions of the time France has to be beaten in 40 odd days if the troops are to become available to fight the Russian steamroller. Now we know that the Russians were not as fearsome as imagined but they were the driving factor in German calculations. The British can have all the numbers in the world but if the Germans still expect them to dither and do nothing they will likely roll the dice in order to beat the chimera of Russian rearmament . If the British do look like they mean to jump in from the start then the Germans may well blink before they commit themselves to war rather than waiting till the Marne battles as per OTL.

The Kaiser never doubted for a second that the British intended to intervene. On July 29 , he wrote "this means they intend to attack us." The British problem wasn't that the Germans doubted the British would intervene, and they really expected to fight through Belgium as well, they didn't care. The British Army was small enough that the Germans hoped that they could still beat France. It was as much hope as reason. The had, correctly, realized that beating France was their only hope as all east first scenarios would mean certain defeat

To prevent the war though, the British are going to have to convince the Austrians that:

1) Britain will intervene and

2) that intervention will be decisive.

that the Austrians wouldn't have to fight the British makes these very hard

Probably coastal defences. Bulk up the battery in Dover. Early ww1 before the Dover Barrage was laid (minefield) the predreads were used to escort troop convoys in the channel. Bulking up the shore batteries may be the cost of getting rid of the Predreads.

I like your idea of getting the money from scrapping some of the older ships. They had limited use and would be of no use in a short war. Scrapping one old predreadnought and older armored cruiser for each division would provide more than enough artillery to transform them into a powerful force. That would mean 24 6inch guns and 96 smaller ones. That's far more firepower than a German division

 

[JackLumber]

If you are looking to stop ww1 you are better off doing something to Austrians, as long as the Austrians are willing to roll the dice the Germans will back if for no other reason to avoid being strategically isolated.