WW1 related question. . .
- Thread starter Art
- Start date
-
- Tags
- central powers ww1
Impossible to say.
Not a helpful answer, I am aware, but it's the only really accurate one. For example, avoiding the Holocaust does allow millions of people to survive a horrific genocide, but it also likely means anti-Semitism remains far more commonplace and in the open than it otherwise would have, and it might mean that all genocides are as hotly debated as the Armenian one instead of directly compared to what Hitler did. (This is obviously not to suggest the Holocaust was a good thing by any measure, I'm just using an extreme example).
In other words, there will be some political/cutural/social wins and some political/cultural/social losses all related to each other.
Not a helpful answer, I am aware, but it's the only really accurate one. For example, avoiding the Holocaust does allow millions of people to survive a horrific genocide, but it also likely means anti-Semitism remains far more commonplace and in the open than it otherwise would have, and it might mean that all genocides are as hotly debated as the Armenian one instead of directly compared to what Hitler did. (This is obviously not to suggest the Holocaust was a good thing by any measure, I'm just using an extreme example).
In other words, there will be some political/cutural/social wins and some political/cultural/social losses all related to each other.
Hard to say.
In other hand no WW2 means more living people and Europe wouldn't be horribly ruined. Europe would be too much more prosperous and Eastern Europe wouldn't face communism even if Russia still becomes communist country. But in other hand lack of Holocaust doesn't discredit antisemitism and extreme racism. And Afro-American civil right issue would be delayed. And it is too possible that female rights wouldn't be so advanced as in OTL. WW2 allowed women take more of room on work life and in some countries they even participated to military activities and resistance which definitely helped them. For example in France female suffrage hardly would had been achieved before 1960's without WW2.
And in CP victory world imperialism would survive longer and probably decolonisation would happen later. Altough this might help make post-colonial nation more developed and perhaps readier to be independent nations. But only perhaps.
So world might be worse or better. It is just what writer decides to write.
In other hand no WW2 means more living people and Europe wouldn't be horribly ruined. Europe would be too much more prosperous and Eastern Europe wouldn't face communism even if Russia still becomes communist country. But in other hand lack of Holocaust doesn't discredit antisemitism and extreme racism. And Afro-American civil right issue would be delayed. And it is too possible that female rights wouldn't be so advanced as in OTL. WW2 allowed women take more of room on work life and in some countries they even participated to military activities and resistance which definitely helped them. For example in France female suffrage hardly would had been achieved before 1960's without WW2.
And in CP victory world imperialism would survive longer and probably decolonisation would happen later. Altough this might help make post-colonial nation more developed and perhaps readier to be independent nations. But only perhaps.
So world might be worse or better. It is just what writer decides to write.
On what time scale?
Pretty clearly, if WW2 has been averted, TTL's 1950 would be better than OTLs. OTOH it is less clear whether TTL's 1990 would be better than OTLs, and by 2100 things have probably "averaged out" with the usual mixture of good and bad on both TLs.
Last edited:
I suppose a lot depends on the PODs leading to the Central Powers victory. And the terms of the Peace Treaties.
Then on how the global economy develops in the next few decades. It will be almost impossible to prevent the US dominating the Americas and much of Asia. To the discomfort of Imperial Germany and Japan. What about the British Empire? Is it revanchist against Germany or does it see Germany as an ally against US commercial dominance? Russia?
A war game pitting the US against an alliance if the British Empire (with or without Canafa), Germany and Japan could be interesting. With France willing to ally with the US once it can be supported. Italy?
So the unhelpful answer is: Dunno, more detail needed.
Then on how the global economy develops in the next few decades. It will be almost impossible to prevent the US dominating the Americas and much of Asia. To the discomfort of Imperial Germany and Japan. What about the British Empire? Is it revanchist against Germany or does it see Germany as an ally against US commercial dominance? Russia?
A war game pitting the US against an alliance if the British Empire (with or without Canafa), Germany and Japan could be interesting. With France willing to ally with the US once it can be supported. Italy?
So the unhelpful answer is: Dunno, more detail needed.
marathag
Banned
Butterflies from Hitler, Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot not killing millions.
I'd liked to have lived in a World where the Worst Person Ever™ was Leopold.
It's impossible to know for sure. There were pushes within Germany for liberalization, so it's plausible for Germany to liberalize. Given the mutinies that happened in OTL which helped lead to the abdication of the Kaiser, I don't think Germany would be inclined to invade other countries anytime soon unless the victory came really early. Even if Germany didn't liberalize, Kaiser Wilhelm II would still be better than Hitler. It probably wouldn't be good to be a Christian in the Caucasus or the Ottoman empire, especially an Armenian one. The Holocaust would be averted but the Armenian genocide would probably last longer. The question is without the Holocaust would some other genocide take its place? I don't know, but I can think of several plausible ones not counting the extension of the Armenian genocide. It also depends on if any the Entente go fascist. I think Japan is going to fascist either way. Even if we can't know for certain, I'd guess that some things would be better and others would worse, but there are a lot of ways that can happen.
mial42
Gone Fishin'
Impossible to know for sure, but it's quite likely liberal democracy would be far less prevalent. OTL, the liberal democracies won all three of the major conflicts of the 20th century (WW1, WW2, and the Cold War, with the help of the decidedly illiberal Russians in the World Wars). The success of liberal democracy led to it's expansion by force (see the liberalization of Germany and Japan after WW2), by economic or diplomatic persuasion (for lack of a better term; that is, liberal democracies prefer to deal with other liberal democracies, and since, by virtue of winning said conflicts, liberal democracies gained a vastly disproportionate share of world power, other countries want to deal with them. The best example is probably countries liberalizing to try and gain EU membership) and by emulation (people want to emulate successful societies, and the most successful societies of the 20th century were liberal democracies). In TTL, the relatively illiberal CPs win WW1, and while there's no guarantee they win whatever conflicts arise afterwards, TTL's illiberal great powers are already much more successful than OTL's, likely leading to other countries emulating (or being persuaded/forced into imitating) them. To the extent that liberal democracy is considered a good thing, TTL would be worse.
Riain
Banned
There was a push before the war to reform the voting system in Prussia, the biggest and most important state in Germany, this was forgotten once the war started but revived and announced at Easter 1917. This is a step in the right direction as far as democratic development goes, so the 2nd most powerful country in the world and the hegemon in Europe isn't about to slide into lasting dictatorship. That's a good thing.
Germany, A-H and OE were relatively democratic at least compared to their successors. And in Germany was already push to liberalisation and further democratic reforms so it is quiet possible and plausible that Germany will develope pretty much as liberal as OTL modern Germany, perhaps even earlier when there is not nazis around. With A-H and OE is too much of internal pressure for reforms.
Interesting that no one yet has said "no, the world would've been a far worse place had the CP won..."
And I certainly won't be that person.
What I would envision with a CP win would essentially be a continuation (as far as was possible) of the "status quo" as it had existed through the "long 19th Century" - and while not "the best of all possible worlds" by any means, it was a world that was making progress - in fits 'n' starts perhaps, but it was trying... with a CP victory there wouldn't have been a "wipe the slate clean" ethos as there was in 1919 in OTL.
Interesting quote from Vaso Cubrilovic, the last survivor of the conspiracy that killed Archduke FF, in his later years - "We destroyed a beautiful world that was lost forever due to the war that followed"... Don't think I've ever read a more poignant quote...
And I certainly won't be that person.
What I would envision with a CP win would essentially be a continuation (as far as was possible) of the "status quo" as it had existed through the "long 19th Century" - and while not "the best of all possible worlds" by any means, it was a world that was making progress - in fits 'n' starts perhaps, but it was trying... with a CP victory there wouldn't have been a "wipe the slate clean" ethos as there was in 1919 in OTL.
Interesting quote from Vaso Cubrilovic, the last survivor of the conspiracy that killed Archduke FF, in his later years - "We destroyed a beautiful world that was lost forever due to the war that followed"... Don't think I've ever read a more poignant quote...
McPherson
Banned
1. Imperialism would probably remain, and be much worse than before.
2. World War II is almost certain.
---I do not agree that Russia would remain reconciled to Brest Litovsk or anything remotely like it.
---A defeated Great Britain is not going to be too happy with Imperial Germany.
--- The French will most definitely be out for revenge.
---Japan and the United States are foredoomed to a Pacific War.
---An intact Austria Hungary means an even more embittered and revanchist revolutionary Italy with Fascism still germinating there and we might see its spread to an unlikely line-up of nations. Spain certainly, possibly France, and a defeated Great Britain.
3. The naval arms race averted as a result of the winners of WWI in RTL will be a full blown event as a result of WWI Entente defeat with Japan, Britain, France and Italy, RUSSIA on one side and guess who on the other? It is a strange collection of bedfellows... Germany, Austria Hungary and ...
Far from being a more peaceful world, I estimate political revolution, wars of national liberation, and imperialism run amok will bring on a different WWII.
You don't think Japan would take advantage of British and French weakness in the aftermath of a defeat?
McPherson
Banned
Possible? They would be on the losing side. They might try for German possessions in the Pacific Ocean anyway, but in the event of an Entente defeat in Europe, the kaiser's navy now has free access to the world ocean. It is very likely that in any peace, the Germans will demand complete restoration of their former colonial positions. Japan "might" try to fight it, but their position without British financial and military infrastructure support is actually not too good in that WW I world. And as I noted, there are another two players in that region and ocean who will not be too happy to see Japan get stronger if Britain and France are defeated.
Last edited:
In terms of human cost and suffering them definitely. Negative things like antisemitism and racism will be longer lived and accepted but they also won’t have industrial scale extermination, and much like slavery or other horrors of history it’s on its way out eventually. And I’d rather be hated than dead personally. Also millions of people surviving means millions of potential new inventors and progress made
Future conflicts and potential for them really depend on how Germany acts in victory, if they are gracious or vicious, but if Austria is anything to go by I think there is at least a hope for attempts at good relations and mending wounds.
Prussian militarism would ensure that RussoHitler or FrancoHitler never get to the point of becoming a full on threat and are dealt with early.
Future conflicts and potential for them really depend on how Germany acts in victory, if they are gracious or vicious, but if Austria is anything to go by I think there is at least a hope for attempts at good relations and mending wounds.
Prussian militarism would ensure that RussoHitler or FrancoHitler never get to the point of becoming a full on threat and are dealt with early.
If the end comes as a White Peace after a massive loss of life, the cultural and civic cracks which manifested in Germany and AH during the war, and those that existed in OE from before the war, would lead to almost no territory exchanged or demanded. Everyone involved would have had so much to repair in their own countries that they would have had no call, within their country, for or excess money and manpower to administer new acquisitions. The victorious CP would probably impose some grandiose, but practically useless, claims or gains to boast about and wave in front of their people as evidence of their 'victory'.
In a quick CP victory, Germany, AH and OE would have made huge territory and monetary demands. Italy and the US would not have participated in the war. Russia, minus the Ukraine and Polish territories taken and kept by Germany, would have had to retrench and possibly form a whole new means of governing their country if the Tsar abdicates or gets forced to leave the country. France would lose some or all of their colonies but probably none of her European territory though huge financial indemnities would keep her supine well into the 1960s. GB would lose some colonies and financial indemnities, far less than the French, would keep them limited through the 1920s. OE and AH would vassalize the whole of the Balkans.
If enlightened politicians and statesmen arose in the aftermath of the war, however it ended, a proto EU would form, with Germany presiding, by the end of the 1920s. If many of the participants remained insular and bitter, WW2 would not have occurred but many insurrections and revolts, most ethnic or nationalistic in nature, would occur beginning toward the end of the 1920s and continuing into the 1950s. All of the European powers containing minority ethnicities would spend huge amounts of blood and treasure combating these uprisings. The ultimate outcome of this would leave Europe having many small countries, think Holland in size and population, unless totalitarian fronts countered this fragmenting with far right ideologies forcibly gluing together disparate groups of people into larger nations.
In a quick CP victory, Germany, AH and OE would have made huge territory and monetary demands. Italy and the US would not have participated in the war. Russia, minus the Ukraine and Polish territories taken and kept by Germany, would have had to retrench and possibly form a whole new means of governing their country if the Tsar abdicates or gets forced to leave the country. France would lose some or all of their colonies but probably none of her European territory though huge financial indemnities would keep her supine well into the 1960s. GB would lose some colonies and financial indemnities, far less than the French, would keep them limited through the 1920s. OE and AH would vassalize the whole of the Balkans.
If enlightened politicians and statesmen arose in the aftermath of the war, however it ended, a proto EU would form, with Germany presiding, by the end of the 1920s. If many of the participants remained insular and bitter, WW2 would not have occurred but many insurrections and revolts, most ethnic or nationalistic in nature, would occur beginning toward the end of the 1920s and continuing into the 1950s. All of the European powers containing minority ethnicities would spend huge amounts of blood and treasure combating these uprisings. The ultimate outcome of this would leave Europe having many small countries, think Holland in size and population, unless totalitarian fronts countered this fragmenting with far right ideologies forcibly gluing together disparate groups of people into larger nations.