Would the world have been better off if the Central Powers win WW1, or not? Assuming there is not another world war 20 years later?
Butterflies from Hitler, Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot not killing millions.OTOH it is less clear whether TTL's 1990 would be better than OTLs,
It's impossible to know for sure. There were pushes within Germany for liberalization, so it's plausible for Germany to liberalize. Given the mutinies that happened in OTL which helped lead to the abdication of the Kaiser, I don't think Germany would be inclined to invade other countries anytime soon unless the victory came really early. Even if Germany didn't liberalize, Kaiser Wilhelm II would still be better than Hitler. It probably wouldn't be good to be a Christian in the Caucasus or the Ottoman empire, especially an Armenian one. The Holocaust would be averted but the Armenian genocide would probably last longer. The question is without the Holocaust would some other genocide take its place? I don't know, but I can think of several plausible ones not counting the extension of the Armenian genocide. It also depends on if any the Entente go fascist. I think Japan is going to fascist either way. Even if we can't know for certain, I'd guess that some things would be better and others would worse, but there are a lot of ways that can happen.The big issue is a victory would have been an affirmation of the Kaiser and Prussian militarism and it may well encourage further adventurism, though its still hard to imagine that as turning out as badly as OTL WWII.
Impossible to know for sure, but it's quite likely liberal democracy would be far less prevalent. OTL, the liberal democracies won all three of the major conflicts of the 20th century (WW1, WW2, and the Cold War, with the help of the decidedly illiberal Russians in the World Wars). The success of liberal democracy led to it's expansion by force (see the liberalization of Germany and Japan after WW2), by economic or diplomatic persuasion (for lack of a better term; that is, liberal democracies prefer to deal with other liberal democracies, and since, by virtue of winning said conflicts, liberal democracies gained a vastly disproportionate share of world power, other countries want to deal with them. The best example is probably countries liberalizing to try and gain EU membership) and by emulation (people want to emulate successful societies, and the most successful societies of the 20th century were liberal democracies). In TTL, the relatively illiberal CPs win WW1, and while there's no guarantee they win whatever conflicts arise afterwards, TTL's illiberal great powers are already much more successful than OTL's, likely leading to other countries emulating (or being persuaded/forced into imitating) them. To the extent that liberal democracy is considered a good thing, TTL would be worse.
1. Imperialism would probably remain, and be much worse than before.Would the world have been better off if the Central Powers win WW1, or not? Assuming there is not another world war 20 years later?
You don't think Japan would take advantage of British and French weakness in the aftermath of a defeat?1. Imperialism would probably remain, and be much worse than before.
2. World War II is almost certain.
---I do not agree that Russia would remain reconciled to Brest Litovsk or anything remotely like it.
---A defeated Great Britain is not going to be too happy with Imperial Germany.
--- The French will most definitely be out for revenge.
---Japan and the United States are foredoomed to a Pacific War.
---An intact Austria Hungary means an even more embittered and revanchist revolutionary Italy with Fascism still germinating there and we might see its spread to an unlikely line-up of nations. Spain certainly, possibly France, and a defeated Great Britain.
3. The naval arms race averted as a result of the winners of WWI in RTL will be a full blown event as a result of WWI Entente defeat with Japan, Britain, France and Italy, RUSSIA on one side and guess who on the other? It is a strange collection of bedfellows... Germany, Austria Hungary and ...
Far from being a more peaceful world, I estimate political revolution, wars of national liberation, and imperialism run amok will bring on a different WWII.
Possible? They would be on the losing side. They might try for German possessions in the Pacific Ocean anyway, but in the event of an Entente defeat in Europe, the kaiser's navy now has free access to the world ocean. It is very likely that in any peace, the Germans will demand complete restoration of their former colonial positions. Japan "might" try to fight it, but their position without British financial and military infrastructure support is actually not too good in that WW I world. And as I noted, there are another two players in that region and ocean who will not be too happy to see Japan get stronger if Britain and France are defeated.You don't think Japan would take advantage of British and French weakness in the aftermath of a defeat?