woshiweiyide
Banned
how will ww1 with the same alliances UK, France, Russia vs Germany, A-H, Ottomans happen if Russia was as industrialized as Germany per capita
WW1 if Russia was as industrialized as Germany per capita
- Thread starter woshiweiyide
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TDM
Kicked
Well OK some back of the envelope stuff using this and assuming elevating Russia to Germany's GDP per capita
(yes I know this isn't the same as being as industrialized as Germany, and those differences work in different directions e.g natural resources which Russia also has a lot of, but frankly the change is going to be so big that getting the numbers exactly right won't really matter)
SO OK
1913 German GDP $237Bn (1990 USD)
1913 Russian GDP $232Bn (1990 USD)
Population in 1910 taken from here
1910 German Population 64.9m
1910 Russian Population 160.7*
So going by the assumption Russian GDP will be (160.7/64.9)*$237Bn = $587Bn
That's just under two and half times more than Germany but also more than the US at that point.
One also supposes that with the level of industrialization in question Russian mobilizations infrastructure will be better and there will be more knock on benefits for waging war than just GDP.
So Ok while steamroll is a big word here, yeah that's a huge difference and the CP are in massive trouble! (So I'll vote yes because my true answer is closer to 'yes' than 'no')
But as woshiweiyide points out any world where this level of Russian industrialization happens in anything like the regular way it's likely going to be a very different world in terms of Geo politics and the run up to a world war anyway!
*and frankly if Russia was industrializing at the same rate as Germany I'd actaully expect Russian population to be higher than OTL just as a natural consequence of that and that's before we get in into potential ATL expansion of Russian Empire's borders fueled by this but taking place prior to 1914 as well (really I need to stop thinking about this)!
(yes I know this isn't the same as being as industrialized as Germany, and those differences work in different directions e.g natural resources which Russia also has a lot of, but frankly the change is going to be so big that getting the numbers exactly right won't really matter)
SO OK
1913 German GDP $237Bn (1990 USD)
1913 Russian GDP $232Bn (1990 USD)
Population in 1910 taken from here
1910 German Population 64.9m
1910 Russian Population 160.7*
So going by the assumption Russian GDP will be (160.7/64.9)*$237Bn = $587Bn
That's just under two and half times more than Germany but also more than the US at that point.
One also supposes that with the level of industrialization in question Russian mobilizations infrastructure will be better and there will be more knock on benefits for waging war than just GDP.
So Ok while steamroll is a big word here, yeah that's a huge difference and the CP are in massive trouble! (So I'll vote yes because my true answer is closer to 'yes' than 'no')
But as woshiweiyide points out any world where this level of Russian industrialization happens in anything like the regular way it's likely going to be a very different world in terms of Geo politics and the run up to a world war anyway!
*and frankly if Russia was industrializing at the same rate as Germany I'd actaully expect Russian population to be higher than OTL just as a natural consequence of that and that's before we get in into potential ATL expansion of Russian Empire's borders fueled by this but taking place prior to 1914 as well (really I need to stop thinking about this)!
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You'd probably have a Russia vs a united Europe by this stage.
In terms of economic growth the proportions of GDP by sector for Germany and Russia in 1913 were:
Germany (GDP 237,332) Ag 34.6%, Ind 41.1%, Service 24.3%
Russia (GDP 254,448) Ag 70%, Ind 26%, Service 4%
Ag: Agriculture, timber and fisheries
Ind: Processing and mining construction housing
Service: Transport, Banking, Military
The other powers in 1913 were:
United States (GDP 517,383) Ag 27.5%, Ind 29.7%, Service 42.8%
France (GDP 144,489) Ag 41.1%, Ind 32.3%, Service 26.6%
Netherlands (GDP 24,955) Ag 26.5%, Ind 33.8 %, Service 39.1%
GB (GDP 224,618) Ag 11.7%, Ind 44.1%, Service 44.2%
Japan (GDP 71,653) Ag 60.1%, Ind 17.5%, Service 22.4%
Russia and Japan have the greatest scope for industrial expansion. In 1913, Germany was Russia's biggest trading partner. This was heavily weighted towards Germany £46m vs £32m for Russia due to the 1904 German-Russian Commercial Treaty that gave generous access to Russian Agriculture and Industrial sectors. First signed in 1894, it played a big part in accelerating German Industrial growth at the expense of Russian. Russia had been strong-armed into renewing in 1906 due to Germany exploiting Russia's weakness during the Russo-Japanese War where Russia was unable to redeploy units from Europe to Asia. The Treaty was due to run until 1918 and Russia wont be bullied again. This will impact 10% of German industrial capacity
In terms of economic growth the proportions of GDP by sector for Germany and Russia in 1913 were:
Germany (GDP 237,332) Ag 34.6%, Ind 41.1%, Service 24.3%
Russia (GDP 254,448) Ag 70%, Ind 26%, Service 4%
Ag: Agriculture, timber and fisheries
Ind: Processing and mining construction housing
Service: Transport, Banking, Military
The other powers in 1913 were:
United States (GDP 517,383) Ag 27.5%, Ind 29.7%, Service 42.8%
France (GDP 144,489) Ag 41.1%, Ind 32.3%, Service 26.6%
Netherlands (GDP 24,955) Ag 26.5%, Ind 33.8 %, Service 39.1%
GB (GDP 224,618) Ag 11.7%, Ind 44.1%, Service 44.2%
Japan (GDP 71,653) Ag 60.1%, Ind 17.5%, Service 22.4%
Russia and Japan have the greatest scope for industrial expansion. In 1913, Germany was Russia's biggest trading partner. This was heavily weighted towards Germany £46m vs £32m for Russia due to the 1904 German-Russian Commercial Treaty that gave generous access to Russian Agriculture and Industrial sectors. First signed in 1894, it played a big part in accelerating German Industrial growth at the expense of Russian. Russia had been strong-armed into renewing in 1906 due to Germany exploiting Russia's weakness during the Russo-Japanese War where Russia was unable to redeploy units from Europe to Asia. The Treaty was due to run until 1918 and Russia wont be bullied again. This will impact 10% of German industrial capacity
woshiweiyide
Banned
But France will still be allied for alsace-lorraine. UK will still need to respond for violation of Belgian neutrality when Germany tries quickly knockout France to fully commit to Russia
TDM
Kicked
I suspect that Germany won't go near Russia unless they have at least GB as co-belligerent and a minimum of French neutrality if not out right support as well on their side.
There will be no Schleifflin plan here. Because a very important premise of that was Russian mobilization would be slow and the Russian forces would also then be slow to move into Eastern Germany (especially with the threat of AH forces), thus allowing Germany the time to do France and get back.
None of that works with this ATL Russian Empire
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What would the biggest effect of an increased level of industrilization on russias ability to wage war be?
I would imagine a much better logistics system with a more widespread railroad allowing much faster mobilization of troops and distribution of material. A higher level of industrialization should also allow for improved arms production both in quantity and in quality, this would alleviate some of the arms shortages russia faced during the war and maybe also allow them to capitalitze properly on the lessons lerned from the Russio-Japanese war with increases machinegun production for example.
On the otherhand russia also faced a number of problems that can not be instantly solved by more and better material, including problems with troop morale, organization of the army itself as well as with leadership and overall strategy.
I think the answer is closer to yes than to no, but I dont think ist neccessarily going to be a steam roll.
I would imagine a much better logistics system with a more widespread railroad allowing much faster mobilization of troops and distribution of material. A higher level of industrialization should also allow for improved arms production both in quantity and in quality, this would alleviate some of the arms shortages russia faced during the war and maybe also allow them to capitalitze properly on the lessons lerned from the Russio-Japanese war with increases machinegun production for example.
On the otherhand russia also faced a number of problems that can not be instantly solved by more and better material, including problems with troop morale, organization of the army itself as well as with leadership and overall strategy.
I think the answer is closer to yes than to no, but I dont think ist neccessarily going to be a steam roll.
TDM
Kicked
heh the problem is that once you start thinking about what would have happened prior to this to get Russia to this suggested point so much goes out the window.
For instance in a TL where Russian industrialization is at this level for WW1 it's also more than likely a TL where the Russians not only won the Russo-Japanese war, but it may not even have happened because the Russian Empire will have likely itself already grabbed more of Northern China (and greater influence in the rest), possibly even a big player in Korea as well.
God alone knows what the Russian internal social landscape would be like as well!
And within Europe, eastern Europe will likely be a different place from the Crimean war onwards. Hell even if we only look back a few years from 1914, the Balkan wars will be different, the Bosnian Crisis will be different, Pan-slavism will be different etc, etc
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TDM
Kicked
well that begs a few questions, how do the Germans know about it before hand if it's a surprise attack (I don't just mean spotting the mobilization but maybe previous political tensions)?
But if you are basically saying who wins if this Russian Empire invades Prussia, well IMO Russia. AH will sound all supportive but the reality is at their power level especially in the likely alternative eastern Europe previously mentioned they're a speed bump who's greatest concern will their own survival.
However if the Russian empire really truly surprise attacks Germany I suspect we see WW1: Europe & Japan (maybe China) vs. Russia. And the US likely helping out at least economically
If by incite you mean Germany will try and go into Russia before Russia invades them, it would be bad idea for Germany as you have all the issues of the vast western Russian empire territory to try and project force in while fighting a Russian empire with 2.5x your manpower and economy, plus you potentially loose International sympathy. And there's a lot more important German things closer to the German side of the border than Russian things on the Russian side of the order. But it's a rock and a hard place because sitting there waiting for an invasion and hoping the rest of the world not comes in to help you, but does so in time isn't much fun either.
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woshiweiyide
Banned
Nope British lack casus belli , France has oppurtunity for territory. Germany would only get A-H, Ottomans and highly unlikely italy because they have more to lose
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TDM
Kicked
British casus belli will be "we don't want Russia taking over", and Britain will likely be on edge from all the various potential changes I've already posted
I agree about the Ottoman empire
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Russia would no longer exist as an absolutist state. There are two scenarios:
1) The GDP per capita goes up, but the actual standards of living are abysmal and conditions are horrendous, leading to revolts similar to 1905
2) The GDP per capita goes up, and there is a further democratization as a strong intellgentsia forms. This intelligentsia would most likely align itself with Germany against the British, as was suggested by several young Russian intellectuals.
3) the great, heavenly, godsent nicholas II will bring the holy russian empire into a golden age where everyone worships him and he steamrolls Germany by Christmas