What would have happened if Germany was divided on the elbe and Saale
into French and Russian satellite state
How would this affect the balance of power in Europe, Great Game, Russian internal politics, British empire's survival, Future growth of France, American Foriegn policy and military size and structure?
POD is at Tannenbaurg Russian armies outflank, surround German armies and neuter them and at marne BEF advances in to OTL gap between 1st and 2and German armies while the French armies to it's left pin down, outflank,surround , neuter the 1st German army and later rest of German armies are outclassed and neutered. Italy and Romania join the war while Bulgaria and Ottoman Empire stay neutral.
Later Germany and Austria Hungary are conquered and occupied. Britian has much lower negotiating power because of minimal involvement and Russian Empire's presence and common goal of Partition of Germany with France.
Territorial Changes:
Germany is divided on the elbe and Saale into French and Russian satellite states while Alsace Lorraine is annexed by France and South Jutland is annexed by Denmark
Austria and Hungary remain independent while Czeckoslovakia is created as a Russian satellite and Galacia is governed separately as an occupied territory by Russia. Italy annexes Tyrol and dalmatia. Romania annexes transylvania. Rest are united with Serbia to form Yugoslavia as a very federated state by Russian interference
Note: Russian Civil war was near inevitable after the Russian Revolution because Military was very likely to attempt to take power as in Kornilov affair
Inspired by
I'm in the planning stages of my first Post-1900 timeline, and I've decided to focus it on the aftermath of an early Entente victory in WW1. I'm considering PODs like Plan XVII being rejected or the British Expeditionary Force advancing between the German 1st and 2nd Armies. Would either of...
www.alternatehistory.com
Some of the answers to your questions are addressed in two books I have seen, see the book excerpts below. Early on in the war, by OTL March 1915, France and Russia were clearly determined to partition Germany. Their joint intent was made even more clear by February 1917. So it is very likely that their aims would be similar in your ATL after the announced POD.
In brief (again see the extended explanation in the book excerpts at the end of this text), the French were to have the Left Bank of the Rhine, including Mainz. Russia would extend its borders westward into Germany. Prussia was to be kept isolated from the other German states. The other German states would be turned into neutral states pending a settlement at the Peace Conference.
Also by March 1915, both the British and the French had agreed that Russia would get Constantinople and the Straits. The British were to be given the neutral zone that existed between Great Britain and Russia in Persia (there had previously been a northern Russian zone, a central neutral zone and a southern British zone in modern day Iran). The Russians were willing that the French get Syria, Cilicia and Palestine. The British would annex Egypt.
The postwar situation would seem to be quite volatile. Could Great Britain prevent a partition of a defeated Germany that millions of French and Russian soldiers are intent on ? Could Great Britain then counterbalance a powerful Franco-Russian alliance that had essentially wiped the German Empire and Austria-Hungary off the map ? Britain had always opposed the strongest single power in Europe to maintain the “Balance of Power” but could she oppose both France and Russia at the same time if they remained allied ? From the excerpts below though, it seems that France was leery of, and suspicious of, Russia’s aggrandizement, so that might imply a break-up that Great Britain could take advantage of.
My guess tallies with my vote above: a Cold War with Russian Empire versus Britain and France.
Information about Franco-Russian plans for a partition of the German Empire in Peter Jackson’s “Beyond The Balance of Power: France and the Politics of National Security in the Era of the First World War", pages 146 - 147
Peter Jackson said:
“The dominance of the traditional approach to security reached its zenith in an agreement with Tsarist Russia in February 1917. The chief French negotiator, Gaston Doumergue, was a relatively moderate stalwart of the centre of the Radical Party. Although Russia was on the eve of the February Revolution, the Tsarist government’s appetite for expansion had abated little. The Doumergue mission to Petrograd negotiated an agreement that was more reminiscent of eighteenth-century power politics than an era of self-determination and democratization.
The terms of the agreement reached between Doumergue and Tsar Nicholas II on 3 February 1917 were more extensive and specific than the general aims outlined in the Cambon Letter (a copy of which Doumergue was given before he left Paris). Doumergue reported with satisfaction that Tsar Nicholas had reaffirmed his “ardent desire” that France should “come out of the war as strong as possible” and thus his willingness to “underwrite in advance whatever we wish to do regarding the Left Bank of the Rhine”.
In exchange for approval of Russian demands to extend the western frontiers of a Russian-dominated Poland at Germany’s expense, France would obtain “at the very least” the return of Alsace-Lorraine with the frontier of 1790 and “the entire coal district of the Saar Valley”. As for the Left Bank of the Rhine, the agreement stipulated that “those areas of this region not annexed by France” would be organized into neutral states to be placed under French occupation until “the complete execution of all peace conditions” was achieved. The expectation was clearly that France would annex at least part of the Left Bank. This went well beyond the programme outlined in the Cambon Letter. Doumergue and the Tsar further agreed on the need to isolate Prussia from the rest of Germany and to spectulate on the chances of Imperial Germany coming apart in the event of an Allied victory.
….Crucially, in return for acquiescence to French territorial gains in western Europe, the Russian government demanded a free hand to settle its western frontiers with the Central Powers….(French Prime Minister) Briand, after some hesitation, eventually approved the agreement as achieving the “necessary enfeeblement of Germany that would “guarantee” the “security and economic development of (France and Russia)”.
Information about a Franco-Russian partition of the German Empire, plans for Constantinople, the Middle East and the “Great Game” in Persia in A.J. P. Taylor’s “The Struggle For Mastery In Europe: 1848 – 1918”, pages 540 – 542
A.J.P. Taylor said:
“ British official circles had long been indifferent to the question of the Straits ((Russia taking Constantinople)). They had held out before the war, for the sake of British public opinion; they were now ready to yield for the sake of Russian opinion, in the belief that this would keep Russia in the war. Besides, they meant to consolidate their position in Egypt, now that Turkey was their enemy; and this removed their last objection to a Russian control of the Straits. On 13 November ((1914)) George V, anticipating events,had said to Benckendorff ((Russian ambassador to Great Britain)): “As to Constantinople it is clear it must be yours”, and on 18 November the British announced that they proposed to annexe Egypt.
These developments were most unwelcome to the French. They were afraid that the Ottoman empire would be shared out between their allies, while their own strength was absorbed on the western front….
…On March 4 ((1915)) he ((Sazonov, Russian Foreign Minister)) formally demanded of his two allies that the Straits and adjoining territory be included within the Russian empire. The British made no objections. Grey((British Foreign Secretary)) agreed to the Russian demand on March 12, after securing approval of the leaders of the opposition; in return, he asked that the neutral zone of Persia should become British…
…The French were more obstinate. Delcassé ((French Foreign Minister)) would only offer “a friendly attitude” to Russia’s wishes when it came to the peace conference….. Nicholas II said to Paléologue ((French ambassador to Russia)): “Take the left bank of the Rhine; take Mainz; go further if you like.” A few days later he agreed that France could have Syria, Cilicia, and Palestine.” ((March 16, 1915))
