ww1 ends in 1914, Paris captured

The big question is what the peace will be.

Germany, to me, seems quite able to enforce a peace that ensures dominance for 40+ years in Europe, without risking any significant unrest at home (mind, A-H and the OE would not be THAT much better). A few strips of Lithuania/Poland/Belgium/France don't turn the rather homogeneous German Empire into an unstable monstrosity.

France is beaten to a pulp, so will bear the brunt in reparations/losses, and Russia will probably lose some land, but there's no way Germany can go off to annex major territory with Britain and Russia both still in the fight.

Italy will probably take Savoy and Nice too, if they're halfway quick enough. A-H will crush Serbia (but with a strong German ally, they are unlikely to just explode even with more unhappy minorities). The Turks get some Caucasus (and Arabia isn't decisively lost).
 
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