WW1 delayed

what if ww1 was delayed. What if the war just stayed in the Balkans. Between Serbia and Austria-Hungary or Any other Balkan counties that Join.
Possible ways this could happen if the Russian revolution happened early.
Or Russia becomes less interested in Serbian independence. Or maybe a stronger central powers to scare Russia. How would the third Balkan war play out?
 

trurle

Banned
what if ww1 was delayed. What if the war just stayed in the Balkans. Between Serbia and Austria-Hungary or Any other Balkan counties that Join.
Possible ways this could happen if the Russian revolution happened early.
Or Russia becomes less interested in Serbian independence. Or maybe a stronger central powers to scare Russia. How would the third Balkan war play out?
Then we will have a true catastrophic revolutions and collapse of Austro-Hungarian and may be Osman Empires. The WWI just pushed them over edge they already were balancing on. The sequence of events will favour close neighbours - Germany and what turned out of Russian Empire. In general, fragmentation of both Austro-Hungaria and Osmans will be less complete, with state borders more along ethnic divisions rather than by fancy of victorious alliance.
 
A third Balkan War could still draw in other powers. If Russia attacks the Ottomans, would France stay out or get drawn into the fighting? If A-H joins, could Germany stay neutral?
 

BooNZ

Banned
Then we will have a true catastrophic revolutions and collapse of Austro-Hungarian and may be Osman Empires. The WWI just pushed them over edge they already were balancing on. The sequence of events will favour close neighbours - Germany and what turned out of Russian Empire. In general, fragmentation of both Austro-Hungaria and Osmans will be less complete, with state borders more along ethnic divisions rather than by fancy of victorious alliance.

Probably not. Austria-Hungary was the fastest growing economy in Europe post 1900.

For the populations of Austria-Hungary, life outside the Empire would not necessarily be appealing. The alternative for the Poles and Ukrainians would be life under a Tsarist autocracy. The Hungarians would be facing the threat of Imperial Russia (and perhaps also Romania) alone. The Czech and Slovenes would probably expect less autonomy under a greater German Empire (since their populations would have been too slight to expect true independence). The Serbs were only ever a conspicuous minority under the A-H Empire and the Croats and Bosniaks would have preferred retaining their identity and privileges under the A-H empire than risk being assimilated under a greater Serbia. The Romanians and Italians alone might have had expectations of an improvement under an alternative regime.

Decades of inertia under Franz Joseph meant Austria-Hungary had serious constitutional challenges ahead of it, but there was nothing to suggest it was doomed. Ongoing Serbia belligerence was only able to be sustained due to heavy Russian and French sponsorship. A-H was the least prepared 'Great Power' in the First World War and was monstered by Russia in the opening months. Despite this the A-H empire more-or-less survived the war intact, despite fighting on three separate fronts simultaneously - beit quite badly. Assuming the neutrality of all other Great powers, A-H would have handily prevailed against all its neighbours (including Italy) simultaneously - a rather unlikely alliance.
 

trurle

Banned
Probably not. Austria-Hungary was the fastest growing economy in Europe post 1900.
Osmans were fast-growers too. Same with Austro-Hungarians - if you have nothing initially, even small investments, even riddled with internal discord, results in double-digit growth rates. Also, in a highly competitive inter-war economic environment (and partially even today), if your economic is undeveloped, it is doomed as you trying to start exports. Trade wars were completely legal means of foreign politics.
 

BooNZ

Banned
Osmans were fast-growers too. Same with Austro-Hungarians - if you have nothing initially, even small investments, even riddled with internal discord, results in double-digit growth rates. Also, in a highly competitive inter-war economic environment (and partially even today), if your economic is undeveloped, it is doomed as you trying to start exports. Trade wars were completely legal means of foreign politics.

Austria-Hungry was scarcely under-developed. It's industrialization, infrastructure and literacy rates were higher than all neighbouring powers except Germany and if its pattern of growth over the previous decade or so had persisted (a big if), its economy would have surpassed France in absolute terms some time in the 1920s. As far as trade wars go, if you look at a period map, there are a number of smaller neighbouring powers with scant industrialization and ill equipped to enter a trade war with A-H. The OTL AH-Serbian trade war hurt A-H dignity, but made a bigger mess of the fragile Serbian economy.

Like other growing economies, (including Germany, Russia and the US), Austria-Hungary was facing liquidity constraints to fund the ongoing growth of domestic industrialization and infrastructure.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Austria-Hungry was scarcely under-developed. It's industrialization, infrastructure and literacy rates were higher than all neighbouring powers except Germany and if its pattern of growth over the previous decade or so had persisted (a big if), its economy would have surpassed France in absolute terms some time in the 1920s. As far as trade wars go, if you look at a period map, there are a number of smaller neighbouring powers with scant industrialization and ill equipped to enter a trade war with A-H. The OTL AH-Serbian trade war hurt A-H dignity, but made a bigger mess of the fragile Serbian economy.

Like other growing economies, (including Germany, Russia and the US), Austria-Hungary was facing liquidity constraints to fund the ongoing growth of domestic industrialization and infrastructure.
Actually Czechslovakia inherited most of Austria Hungary's industrial base
 

BooNZ

Banned
Actually Czechslovakia inherited most of Austria Hungary's industrial base

I understand a high proportion of the A-H Empire's military enterprises were based in Czechoslovakia, but it would be a peculiar interpretation of 'industrial base' to suggest Czechoslovakia had more industrial capacity than the rest of the A-H Empire combined. For example, at one point before the war A-H was the third largest producer of crude oil and fourth largest manufacturer of machine tools.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
I understand a high proportion of the A-H Empire's military enterprises were based in Czechoslovakia, but it would be a peculiar interpretation of 'industrial base' to suggest Czechoslovakia had more industrial capacity than the rest of the A-H Empire combined. For example, at one point before the war A-H was the third largest producer of crude oil and fourth largest manufacturer of machine tools.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austria-Hungary
After the US, Germany and then Britain.
And it was also the third largest manufacturer of electrical appliances, behind the US and Germany...well, ahead of Britain.

Ww1 delayed, well, the distance in technology and industry between Germany and Britain would increase.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
So German industry and innovation ultimately achieves Britain's per capita performance before the 1970s - I guess that's possible, but not inevitable...
Inevitable if the Great War is delayed to mid 1930s. I would post the paper mentioned this trend later. IOTL, the war caused a setback in German productivity growth
 

Thomas1195

Banned
So German industry and innovation ultimately achieves Britain's per capita performance before the 1970s - I guess that's possible, but not inevitable...
Oh wait, German industry and innovation already surpassed. Its manufacturing productivity in 1911 was about 20% higher than that of Britain. The lead in heavy industries was even bigger.

There were plenty of examples of German technological superiority in ww1. Stahlhelm, Big Bertha and other types of heavy artillery demonstrated its superior metallurgy. Other examples were Uboats, more HE shells, superior battleship AP shells, Carl Zeiss optics, gas attacks, MP 18 gun.

What you were talking about was overall productivity of 3 sectors.
 
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Then we will have a true catastrophic revolutions and collapse of Austro-Hungarian and may be Osman Empires. The WWI just pushed them over edge they already were balancing on. The sequence of events will favour close neighbours - Germany and what turned out of Russian Empire. In general, fragmentation of both Austro-Hungaria and Osmans will be less complete, with state borders more along ethnic divisions rather than by fancy of victorious alliance.

Agreed. Even a short war exposes much of the Austro-Hungarian regime's bloodthirstiness and imbecility, and gets a lot of Franz Joseph's subjects killed for literally nothing. Add to that the already existing grievances, and the regime's complete lack of a vision for the empire's future...a great recipe for continued degeneration and collapse. A long war is practically guaranteed to put the Habsburg empire out of its misery, but a shorter war could easily prove deadly as well.

The Ottoman Empire gets an opportunity to attack Greece and try to seize its islands. Whether or not they go for it, the Ottomans might still survive and avoid fragmentation. For better or worse.
For the populations of Austria-Hungary, life outside the Empire would not necessarily be appealing. The alternative for the Poles and Ukrainians would be life under a Tsarist autocracy. The Hungarians would be facing the threat of Imperial Russia (and perhaps also Romania) alone. The Czech and Slovenes would probably expect less autonomy under a greater German Empire (since their populations would have been too slight to expect true independence). The Serbs were only ever a conspicuous minority under the A-H Empire and the Croats and Bosniaks would have preferred retaining their identity and privileges under the A-H empire than risk being assimilated under a greater Serbia. The Romanians and Italians alone might have had expectations of an improvement under an alternative regime.

That must be why around 15% of Croats and over 20% of all Bosniaks immigrated from Austria-Hungary in its last few decades - couldn't stomach all those privileges.
(of course, they were far from the only ones; for one example, 20% of all Slovaks also left...)
 
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