WW1 delayed/doesn't happen - what happens to Austria-Hungary?

[Southpaw]

A-H was at a rather pivotal moment in its history in 1914. Franz Joseph was in his last years, and the next renewal of the Ausgleich in 1917 was coming up.

Absent the war and its stress, Franz Joseph might have lived a bit longer, so the Ausgleich might have gone fairly smoothly in terms of maintaining the status quo. But what if he dies, say, in 1916, as in OTL? Would A-H have collapsed in the face of Franz Ferdinand's reform proposals and Hungarian opposition?

 

[Halagaz]

Would A-H have collapsed in the face of Franz Ferdinand's reform proposals and Hungarian opposition?

Maybe. Franz Ferdinand's hostility towards the Hungarians seems to have been his only "selling point". He was massively reactionary, and his vision for the Empire's future was vague and mostly based on a "literally everything bad is Hungary's fault" mindset; it was also much closer to neo-absolutism than to anything the smaller nations actually wanted. He was also feared and mistrusted by the entrenched bureaucracy (up to and including Franz Joseph and the entire 1914 cabinet), and not very good at making friends or allies. All in all not a good recipe for stability.

To be fair, Franz Ferdinand was also the fan of resurrecting a triple alliance with the Russians (even if for all the wrong reasons), so the start of his reign might be marked with at least a slight relaxation of relations between Austria-Hungary and Russia. Whether or not this means anything in the end, depends on other developments.

It's not inevitable, but I wouldn't be too surprised if A-H implodes in a 3+way civil war within a year or two of FF's coronation.

I also wouldn't be surprised if he gets offed by someone (maybe, but not necessarily, a Hungarian). Habsburg governors and senior officials have been attacked very often over the last decade, even by the Empire's more "loyal" nations, and I don't imagine it's going to get any better by 1916.

 

[LordKalvert]

Possible but also possible to avoid it

There was tremendous respect for the Monarchy which held the country together during the war so FF would at least be given a chance to implement his program

His main rival is the Magyar nobility- not exactly a major force in Austrian society. Imposing universal manhood sufarage would break their power- and its hard to see many rallying to a cause of Noble rights



All in all, unless FF does something that would provoke a firestorm of protest from the lower classes, his throne should be secure

 

[Nivek]

When all have been said and done about Franz Fernindand i think we can summary pretty simple:

He knew augleisch was unsustainable and even the Hungarians wanted to end the 'farce' but again the hasburg were pretty powerful and respected in both halves of the empire.

His plan? seems like a weird hybrid of curtain nobility via illustated depotist and wanting to reform the nation with a 'hasburg/Austria' supranational identity when all major part of empire(germans, bohemian-checz, hungarian croats and rumanian) would submit to him, he wanted to centralized the empire yet keeping more civil and 'cultural' freedoms among the 'hasburgs lands' yet keeping German as national language yet other as 'local ones'.

I think as lordkalvert say if done to appasea the low-middle class aka the masses and well done he would pull it.

 

[LordKalvert]

When all have been said and done about Franz Fernindand i think we can summary pretty simple:

He knew augleisch was unsustainable and even the Hungarians wanted to end the 'farce' but again the hasburg were pretty powerful and respected in both halves of the empire.

His plan? seems like a weird hybrid of curtain nobility via illustated depotist and wanting to reform the nation with a 'hasburg/Austria' supranational identity when all major part of empire(germans, bohemian-checz, hungarian croats and rumanian) would submit to him, he wanted to centralized the empire yet keeping more civil and 'cultural' freedoms among the 'hasburgs lands' yet keeping German as national language yet other as 'local ones'.

I think as lordkalvert say if done to appasea the low-middle class aka the masses and well done he would pull it.

Yeah, FF's plans were weird. Hard to see where he's coming from on some of them but a lot of his opponents were wimps (the Magyar nobility) but some weren't- the Germans for example

This is the one group that would cause the most trouble. They had the advantage because German was the language of government and fluency went a long way in a government career. However, at the local level bilingualism was important. If you were in a Czech region, you were expected to know both which most Germans didn't

A lot of the language problems are really groups fighting over civil service jobs- but these are more middle class issues I think the lower workers and peasants are loyal at heart

 

[stodge]

Karl..

A-H was at a rather pivotal moment in its history in 1914. Franz Joseph was in his last years, and the next renewal of the Ausgleich in 1917 was coming up.

Absent the war and its stress, Franz Joseph might have lived a bit longer, so the Ausgleich might have gone fairly smoothly in terms of maintaining the status quo. But what if he dies, say, in 1916, as in OTL? Would A-H have collapsed in the face of Franz Ferdinand's reform proposals and Hungarian opposition?

Actually, Karl was quite the reformer and assuming he succeeds in the ATL in 1916 but in a TL without an ongoing European Conflict, it's possible his own recognition of the need for reform would have been achievable whereas in OTL the War made the peaceful reformation of the Austro-Hungarian Empire impossible.

So Charles I (as we should call him) recalls the Imperial Parliament and offers a full confederation to the peoples of the Empire with full autonomy. Remember, there is no War, no Fourteen Points and no Lansing Note so I think you could argue Charles's reforms would be generally welcome and the Empire would transition to a Confederation by 1920.

The problem of course is once you start giving out power, where do you stop ? The demands would move from autonomy to self-governance to independence and I would think within a generation Vienna would be facing terrorism from any other of violent pro-independence groups such as the Poles, Slovenes, Czechs, Croats, Slovaks and the rest some of whom would be aided and abetted by external powers.

Inevitably, the Austro-Hungarian Empire has two options - to try and maintain the status quo by force or seek a managed dissolution.

It seems reasonable to suppose without exile Charles would have lived beyond 1922 (assassin's bullets and bombs permitting). It's likely he could have lived well into the 1950s or even the 1960s.

Could he have survived as monarch of a Commonwealth of states (on the British model) or were the racial tensions such that separation (managed or otherwise) was the only option ? History dictates a mixture of the two so by 1955 we see the ageing Charles abdicating in favour of his son, Otto, whose remit is now Austria, Slovenia, Bohemia and Moravia. Independent Hungary and Poland along with Croatia are generally friendly but Slovakia less so.

 

[Ian_W]

Part of the irony of all this is the Velvet Divorce of he Czechs and Slovaks.

One of the important points about a Commonwealth system is it splits the Head of State, who provides continuity and a focus for loyalty, from the Head of Government, who gets stuff done.

It requires a Head of State who wont try and override a Head of Government, and a Head of Government who is sensible enough to realise there are times when subitting your resignation is the right thing.

How did political parties work in 1914 Austria-Hungary ?

 

[Michel Van]

Austro-Hungarian Empire without World War one ?

That imply that Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria is not murder in Sarajevo

Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria had interesting plans for Austro-Hungarian Empire, it's federalization
Vereinigte Staaten von Groß-Österreich or United States of Greater Austria
was his solution to problems the Empire had.

i think that had Archduke Franz Ferdinand had live and without World War One, he goes for that program in 1916/17
and with Support of ethnic groups, who in contrast after WW1 hand only one goal get autarchic from the dying Empire