So I was looking on the list of AH cliches, and was looking near the "muh WW1 must habben" and felt like possibly developing/looking into an AH TL of it would be interesting. Obviously my grasp on WW1 is very limited considering how little I've read about it, but hopefully y'all can steer me into relatively the right direction. Also apologies for posting in the Italo Balbo AH, but I like to believe that somewhere out there Geekis Khan is going to return and talk about the... I'm already getting off track.
So, I think starting out with what I already know (or think I know, anyways) is a good place to start, so we hopefully don't waste time retreading old items.
With those short opening remarks out of the way, I think it time for me to talk moreso about how I see regional politics in europe OTL after 1900.
Germany, under the command of Kaiser Wilhelm II (much to the malaise of the Duke of Lauenburg), wishes to expand its role on the world stage, and is in the process of increasing its Naval Production, which is soon to threaten British Supremacy of the Ocean.
Britain, the world's superpower and thorn in the side of european conquests, wishes to retain this lofty place. Britain wishes to have no single power come to control the entire continent of Europe, and will always support the slightly weaker side to maintain balance, a lesson the Khans used to bolster the small hill in the depths of Russia to prominence over the Incorruptible Lord Novgorod the Great, among other regional powers.
Russia, a rising monolith in terms of industrializing, was humiliated repeatedly, falling in tragic style with its glorious defeat of Napoleon using the ingenious plan of never engaging with the enemy so you can never be accused of treason by the Tsar, to the Crimean War, and resting awash in international laughter as they are defeated by an asian power, with not one but two fleets being blasted to the bottom of oceans far from the other end of an entire landmass, St. Petersburg.
France. They want Alsace-Lorraine.
Italy, under Risorgimento in the 1860's, is united. The North is rich, the South is poor.
Austria-Hungary, soon-to-be the new sick man of Europe, hopes to wave off the ghosts of the Ottoman turks approaching Vienna by asserting her power, and refusing to fall under the shadow of the ever-growing younger german brother.
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As for a POD, I think that if Germany and Britain came to a "Grand Bargain" which allowed for Britain and Germany to seek avoidance of a war in europe, via coming to terms which suited both interests and reflected both nations view and perception of each-other, may result in the delay of the First World War by simply breaking some of the regional conflicts into smaller wars, and then coagulating newfound conflicts into a World War sometime in the late 1920's. My initial thoughts for such a "Grand Bargain" look like so:
Seeing German naval production skyrocket, the British Government made an agreement with the German government, in effect agreeing to a split of affairs in the world. The agreement follows:
The agreement puts Germany at odds, mostly, with Austria-Hungary, a power whichs' presence on the world stage is de facto waning, much like some other Southern power of once great note.
Such a "Grand Bargain", I feel, would alleviate tensions in Europe to such a degree that even if Austria-Hungary declared on Serbia in 1914 (with no German backing, obviously, since it is in direct German interests to attack/control Austria considering their "Blank Check" from Britain to attack them without British intervention), that Austria-Hungary would back down from a potentially devastating war against Russia alone.
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Now for some of my more "poorly" thought-out ideas:
Germans conduct intelligently and creatively named operation "Rouge", wherein underground german socialists are secretly captured and subsequently impersonated, brought out from the steelwork by manufactured musings in government halls of "Reform" and "socialist dialogue" that've been spread through the streets and cities, as a honeypot to conduct an intelligence operation. These impersonated socialists will then organize and invite French socialists to these Faux-german socialists houses, where the faux-socialists will arm and train these french socialists in the more immediate aspects of reform. Germany will organize an assassination of Jean Jaures, wherein a French socialist revolutionary will be there to witness, albeit unwittingly, the planned execution of Jean Jaures, a pacifist. A faux-socialist plant from Germany will be informed of the murder ahead of time, and be there during the assassination, and spring up to "hear" the last words of Jean Jaures as he dies, which will be oh-so-conviently mentioning Revanchist leanings and murmurings of his favorite french socialist, that unwitting one so conveniently attending the Cafe where Jaures is shot. This will, in conjunction with manufactured weakness by the German army to help induce greater revanchist feelings, will lead to the radicalist and violent socialists, perhaps led half-heartedly by Semard, (my knowledge on French militant socialists pre-ww1 is blatantly poor), will play upon these "weaknesses" of the Germans, to possibly help stage a very well funded socialist revolution in France. At the same, German firebrand nationalists will hope to stir the right-wing Occitan into revolting from the leftist enemy to the North, before it is too late and they have control of the entire nation. This, hopefully for millions who may have been in trenches, will lead to a situation similar to that of Spain in 1936, but involving a more important and powerful power (no offense to Spain).
With (assuming any plausibility at all for the above) the French Civil War raging, much of the Great Powers in Europe, including a weakly-posing Germany, will take advantage of the situation by attempting to learn from the War. A quote I really like is "We all expect the wars of Today to be our Fathers Wars" or something like that. I am interested in the (hopeful) realization of trench warfare, and the development of early tank vehicles by much of the great powers to get ahead of the curve in warfare. Then again, who learned lessons from Spain?
Other attempts at taking advantage will certainly occur. French colonies will be dismembered, and Morocco will no longer be a firepit for Wilhelm, he will have to find another splotch of land to fight about. The Great Game is afoot again, this time with free infrastructure and pre-placed europeans.
Thank you for reading, hopefully I haven't wanked too hard about avoiding the First World War, and if the ideas presented seem of adequate plausibility, I'll certainly think of developing an actual ATL. Again, much thanks for reading.
So, I think starting out with what I already know (or think I know, anyways) is a good place to start, so we hopefully don't waste time retreading old items.
- Nation-states have no permanent enemies, no permanent allies, only permanent interests.
- It is in the rational interest of the highest regional (or international) power to keep all the weaker powers fighting amongst themselves so no rising threat to this supreme power can be made.
- The Influence of Sea Power upon History
With those short opening remarks out of the way, I think it time for me to talk moreso about how I see regional politics in europe OTL after 1900.
Germany, under the command of Kaiser Wilhelm II (much to the malaise of the Duke of Lauenburg), wishes to expand its role on the world stage, and is in the process of increasing its Naval Production, which is soon to threaten British Supremacy of the Ocean.
Britain, the world's superpower and thorn in the side of european conquests, wishes to retain this lofty place. Britain wishes to have no single power come to control the entire continent of Europe, and will always support the slightly weaker side to maintain balance, a lesson the Khans used to bolster the small hill in the depths of Russia to prominence over the Incorruptible Lord Novgorod the Great, among other regional powers.
Russia, a rising monolith in terms of industrializing, was humiliated repeatedly, falling in tragic style with its glorious defeat of Napoleon using the ingenious plan of never engaging with the enemy so you can never be accused of treason by the Tsar, to the Crimean War, and resting awash in international laughter as they are defeated by an asian power, with not one but two fleets being blasted to the bottom of oceans far from the other end of an entire landmass, St. Petersburg.
France. They want Alsace-Lorraine.
Italy, under Risorgimento in the 1860's, is united. The North is rich, the South is poor.
Austria-Hungary, soon-to-be the new sick man of Europe, hopes to wave off the ghosts of the Ottoman turks approaching Vienna by asserting her power, and refusing to fall under the shadow of the ever-growing younger german brother.
-----
As for a POD, I think that if Germany and Britain came to a "Grand Bargain" which allowed for Britain and Germany to seek avoidance of a war in europe, via coming to terms which suited both interests and reflected both nations view and perception of each-other, may result in the delay of the First World War by simply breaking some of the regional conflicts into smaller wars, and then coagulating newfound conflicts into a World War sometime in the late 1920's. My initial thoughts for such a "Grand Bargain" look like so:
Seeing German naval production skyrocket, the British Government made an agreement with the German government, in effect agreeing to a split of affairs in the world. The agreement follows:
- German Naval Production will stop, and it will be agreed that Germany will only have half the number of tonnage the British have. (Or some other number/amount that secures British interests on the ocean, aka the British lifeline to the Dominions.)
- Britain will refuse to interfere in limited European affairs, and will refuse (offensive? secret? immediate?) alliances with France, Russia, or Austria-Hungary. The regions past the Pyrenees, the Alps, and the Balkans will remain in the British Sphere of Influence. (This is to allow for Germany to act without serious concern for its immediate neighbors forming a large alliance to dismantle German states.)
- Germany will refuse to interfere in British Imperial affairs, and will refuse alliances with Spain, Russia, or Japan. The regions within the Pyrenees, the Alps, and the Balkans (see: 1914 Austria-Hungary) will become part of the German Sphere of Influence. (Britain will not cede ALL of Europe, such a ceding is purely wank territory. Plus, Germany can never (see: for a while) gain the alliance of France, considering a little territorial dispute, and the impossibility of a British Alliance with Austria-Hungary means that a good route for expansion is southwards, but Germany is allowed to ally with Austria-Hungary freely with no dispute from Britain. This puts Germany at odds with the Southern Brother, while also in the arms of him.)
- Italy would be the Nation which both nations would come to the Aid of if attacked, understanding the British Policy of not allowing a single power come to rule Europe. (Germany doesn't want Italy to fall to France, since France is natural rival considering the border zone, and Germany doesn't want Austria-Hungary to attack Italy, since that strengthens the Austria-Hungarian position, which, as previously noted, Germany is at odds and aims with. Britain doesn't want someone picking on a weaker power in Europe, since D&C strategy require it not to be picked on.)
- Germany will not enter into any agreements with Italy of an offensive manner. (This is so any attack on Austria-Hungary by a German-Italian Alliance will not happen.)
The agreement puts Germany at odds, mostly, with Austria-Hungary, a power whichs' presence on the world stage is de facto waning, much like some other Southern power of once great note.
Such a "Grand Bargain", I feel, would alleviate tensions in Europe to such a degree that even if Austria-Hungary declared on Serbia in 1914 (with no German backing, obviously, since it is in direct German interests to attack/control Austria considering their "Blank Check" from Britain to attack them without British intervention), that Austria-Hungary would back down from a potentially devastating war against Russia alone.
---
Now for some of my more "poorly" thought-out ideas:
Germans conduct intelligently and creatively named operation "Rouge", wherein underground german socialists are secretly captured and subsequently impersonated, brought out from the steelwork by manufactured musings in government halls of "Reform" and "socialist dialogue" that've been spread through the streets and cities, as a honeypot to conduct an intelligence operation. These impersonated socialists will then organize and invite French socialists to these Faux-german socialists houses, where the faux-socialists will arm and train these french socialists in the more immediate aspects of reform. Germany will organize an assassination of Jean Jaures, wherein a French socialist revolutionary will be there to witness, albeit unwittingly, the planned execution of Jean Jaures, a pacifist. A faux-socialist plant from Germany will be informed of the murder ahead of time, and be there during the assassination, and spring up to "hear" the last words of Jean Jaures as he dies, which will be oh-so-conviently mentioning Revanchist leanings and murmurings of his favorite french socialist, that unwitting one so conveniently attending the Cafe where Jaures is shot. This will, in conjunction with manufactured weakness by the German army to help induce greater revanchist feelings, will lead to the radicalist and violent socialists, perhaps led half-heartedly by Semard, (my knowledge on French militant socialists pre-ww1 is blatantly poor), will play upon these "weaknesses" of the Germans, to possibly help stage a very well funded socialist revolution in France. At the same, German firebrand nationalists will hope to stir the right-wing Occitan into revolting from the leftist enemy to the North, before it is too late and they have control of the entire nation. This, hopefully for millions who may have been in trenches, will lead to a situation similar to that of Spain in 1936, but involving a more important and powerful power (no offense to Spain).
With (assuming any plausibility at all for the above) the French Civil War raging, much of the Great Powers in Europe, including a weakly-posing Germany, will take advantage of the situation by attempting to learn from the War. A quote I really like is "We all expect the wars of Today to be our Fathers Wars" or something like that. I am interested in the (hopeful) realization of trench warfare, and the development of early tank vehicles by much of the great powers to get ahead of the curve in warfare. Then again, who learned lessons from Spain?
Other attempts at taking advantage will certainly occur. French colonies will be dismembered, and Morocco will no longer be a firepit for Wilhelm, he will have to find another splotch of land to fight about. The Great Game is afoot again, this time with free infrastructure and pre-placed europeans.
Thank you for reading, hopefully I haven't wanked too hard about avoiding the First World War, and if the ideas presented seem of adequate plausibility, I'll certainly think of developing an actual ATL. Again, much thanks for reading.