WW1 CP Victory scenarios

WW1 CP Victory threads generally tend to bog down into the wherefores and whens of victory and the politics of the Nazis and the 1916-18 WW1 tend to be pushed backwards to be assumptions for pre-war politics.

So can people spell out their ideas how the CP would win WW1? If possible provide a PoD and subsequent actions, and changes to politics and how you think a post-war settlement would pan out and why. It would be great if you can provide an idea how you think things would be 5, 10 and even 20 years after such a result.

With a bit of luck we can narrow them down into a couple of general themes.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
If you want a total CP victory my best bet would be early in the war, somehow have Marne end in German victory. You'll actually need the Schlieffen plan to magically succeed and knock out France early.
 
Easiest is no unrestricted sub warfare against the US. The Germans gain Brest-Livtosk, significant concessions in France, and Western Europe is totally broke (which is why they surrender by the end of 1917 or beginning of 1918 to begin with).
 
I like the CP winning the Race to the Sea, a bit like Wiking's 'Marne without Moltke'. Basically this puts pressure on the British at sea and brings the German navy in on the war in a bigger way. Without the BEF at nearly the same size the Germans can do everything IOTL on land that bit quicker and more decisively. Its obvious that Germany has the upper hand in 1916 so H&L don't take over the country and ruin it, the Russians pull out in early 1917 and the French sue for an armistice instead of OTL mutiny in late 1917.

This removes some of the ultra punitive measures in Brest Litovsk and reverse Versailles treaties.
 

jahenders

Banned
Interesting scenarios.

As far as ones that provide CP victory, I like your No Schleiffen Plan, Moltke trusts Ludendorff, and Italy remains Neutral.

That being said, I think the other two scenarios that provide the best options for CP victory are:
1) Schleiffen Plan more fully supported and somewhat better led. The early war was a close run thing IOTL -- just a few changes and Germans would have been in Paris and the war likely over quickly.

2) Schleiffen Plan East. The basic assumption of the Schleiffen Plan was that Germany would face a 2-front war so it had to knock out one enemy fast. If, instead of Schleiffen Plan as IOTL, Germany had situated for a strong defense in the West and then tried to quickly knock out Russia in the East, it might have worked well. As it was, Russia was reeling almost from the start. With more pressure, they might crumble fast. With this approach, Germany:
- knocks Russia out faster
- lets France do more of the early bleeding
- likely keeps UK out of the war (no Germany violation of Belgium)
- keeps its A-H ally strong
If France has made little headway and huge cost in the West by the time Russia falls, they may sue for peace.

 

LordKalvert

Banned
The best are early in the war-

1914- the Schleiffen plan pulls a miracle- the Germans take advantage of one of their opportunities to cut off the retreat of the French 5th army. Works even better if the now isolated BEF is also captured or at least retreats from the field towards the channel ports. The Germans proceed to push the French back, the Marne is crossed and the French abandon the fortress line rather than see their troops captured. The French are essentially out of the war

1915- the best POD this year is for the Germans to launch Gorlice-Tarnow about a month earlier this makes the Italians nervous and they don't join the war. Not enough to win the war quite yet but without the Italians drawing off the Austrians, the Austro-Germans manage to establish firm lines that hold when Brusilov's offense is launched. Russian morale collapses, Romania joins the CPs rather than the Entente and the Russian Revolution happens before USW and Zimmerman Telegraph
 
Here was a fairly original idea that had the Austrians turning the tables against the Russians in Galicia in 1914, and things just get worse for the Entente from there.
 
A better run offensive in the West is a must, the destruction of the 5th French Army is a real possibility and while I personally think Paris is out of reach the channel coast isn't. From such a good start a lot of things become easier for the CP which is where the victory comes from.

What about 5 years after the war ends? What do people think would happen at the end of the war with their pet PoD?

For mine I think the French and Belgians might be able to bribe away losses of home territory with colonies, but even if they can't they won't lose huge chunks of land. In the east I think the Kingdom of Poland will be set up and the Germans will annex the proposed Polish Border Strip, I think the Poles will not be happier but would prefer being a client state to not being a state at all.
 
Top