There is something which does not add up, from my understanding of most of the posts here. For most of the war, the CP had better short-term expectations than the Entente (the long-term perspective is more difficult to assess: it depends on the timing and the specifics of the Russian collapse, and on the timing of USA entrance in the war. IMHO, the former will happen in any case if the war drags on; the latter is much more doubtful since it depends on whom might be elected in 1916, and on the mood of American public). There is not a chance that the CP throw in the towel and accept a defeat (Germany did not do it completely even in November 1918).
So there is no point in discussing the carving of the Ottoman Empire, or the appetites of Russia. Either the Entente and the CP find a non-unsatisfactory appeasement after the bloodbaths of 1915-1916, or the war is going to continue. But remember that in 1916 (and obviously in 1917) the CP smell a victory on the wind.
If the chancelleries of the Powers hammer out an acceptable compromise, some of the small players will foot the bill (Serbia, Romania). Russia is in a very bad situation, and cannot be too choosy. We are back again to A-H and France: maybe the POD could be Karl, having a vision and realising that the war is going to destroy the empire in any case [it is doubtful that upon his accession to the throne he might be so decisive, though]. Or the Czar sueing for peace earlier [or the Entente realising which is the true situation in Russia, which they did not want to perceive. The British were convinced that the assassination of Rasputin was all that was needed to compact the Russians behind their Czar].