Would these two empires disintegrate sooner or later anyway or could they manage too last? What would be the internal political developments in the three main central powers? In OTL, Germany saw a period of democracy followed by the world´s worst regime so far, before it gradually developed in a democratic direction. The political development in what used to be Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire is quite varied. Would the three powers remain united and what would happen too the emperors? Would they develop in a more democratic direction or would they remain authoritarian?
WW1: Central Powers victory: How long will the Ottoman Empire and Austria-Hungary last?
- Thread starter Eivind
- Start date
'When' the war is won is the key element here. An early victory during the fall of 1914 will only serve to validate the more autocratic elements of Germany, Austria and the Ottomans. If the war is won in 1918 or 1919, and all three empires go through major civil strifes, democracy becomes a matter of time. It will come either through revolution or reform.
Germany and Austrian Cisleithania most likely last to present day as constitutional monarchies. Specifically in regards to Austria: Without another Ausgleich in the 1920s, this time to ensure representation for the Czechs, Slovaks, Croats, Slovenes and maybe even the Ruthenians, there's very little chance that it survives as the Empire which won the Great War. As to the Ottoman Empire: there are too many unresolved conflicts in the region (religious and otherwise) that I find it very unlikely to survive the entire 20th Century. But then again, there are so many butterflies by the time the war is won, that a unifying figure might just come along during the 1920s or 30s and finds a way to keep it together.
The Germans and Austrian emperors remain as heads of state, perhaps holding more power than the ones in today's western democracies, but as symbolical figures nonetheless. The Ottoman Sultan is another matter altogether. I'll defer to someone more knowledgeable.
Finally, in regards to the Central Powers as an alliance: as long as there is a credible threat to all three empires, let's say, an industrialised Soviet Union, the alliance keeps making sense. Governments come and go, however, so it's difficult to say for how much longer the alliance lasts.
Germany and Austrian Cisleithania most likely last to present day as constitutional monarchies. Specifically in regards to Austria: Without another Ausgleich in the 1920s, this time to ensure representation for the Czechs, Slovaks, Croats, Slovenes and maybe even the Ruthenians, there's very little chance that it survives as the Empire which won the Great War. As to the Ottoman Empire: there are too many unresolved conflicts in the region (religious and otherwise) that I find it very unlikely to survive the entire 20th Century. But then again, there are so many butterflies by the time the war is won, that a unifying figure might just come along during the 1920s or 30s and finds a way to keep it together.
The Germans and Austrian emperors remain as heads of state, perhaps holding more power than the ones in today's western democracies, but as symbolical figures nonetheless. The Ottoman Sultan is another matter altogether. I'll defer to someone more knowledgeable.
Finally, in regards to the Central Powers as an alliance: as long as there is a credible threat to all three empires, let's say, an industrialised Soviet Union, the alliance keeps making sense. Governments come and go, however, so it's difficult to say for how much longer the alliance lasts.
Depends when Central Powers would win the war.
German Empire would survive probably even with late victory. The country would eventually develope as constitutional monarchy.
Austria-Hungary might survive to 2018 with good luck. But it would need early victory and much of reforms. Most difficult would be stop Hungary leave double-monarchy.
Ottomans probably would survive altough it might lost some regions anyway depending when the war ends.
German Empire would survive probably even with late victory. The country would eventually develope as constitutional monarchy.
Austria-Hungary might survive to 2018 with good luck. But it would need early victory and much of reforms. Most difficult would be stop Hungary leave double-monarchy.
Ottomans probably would survive altough it might lost some regions anyway depending when the war ends.
I wonder, if we assume that either the Bolsheviks or some other socialist group still takes power in Russia (which, arguably would be at least as likely in this time line), how would the central powers react to this? Would they see it as a threat and intervene to help its former enemy, the tsar? If so, would this ATL white army be more efficient than the OTL white army?
Probably Germany would help Whites win Russian Civil War. But White victory would be still uncertain. Only thing what White genrals agreed was crushing of Bolsheviks.
Germany actually helped to transport Lenin from Switzerland to Russia in 1918. Until the eastern front is won and Russia is out of the war, I don’t think Germany cares who leads it.
The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk would ensure all three Central powers get a piece of western Russia, plus harsh reparations. I assume there’d only be an intervention if treaty stipulations are not met, be it by Whites or Reds.
A-H fracturing after losing or winning the war are two things as different as day and night. For example Czechs might press for independence after a 1918 victory but they're not going to get the entirety of Bohemia and Moravia, they're getting maybe 1/3 of it because Austria is going to retain the majority and pluralit German speaking bits. Slovakia has pretty much no prospect for independence and Italy/Romania/Serbia are only getting the stick as they're the ones with the war guilt. Poland/Ukraine end up with a German or Austrian king so Galizia, which has traditionally been a region of minor importance, is not an issue if it changes hands - it all stays in the family.
Also, this is the result of the Cisleithanian election 1911. If anything they need less representation to stabilize politics - an electoral threshold of 5 % or so to force the micro parties to unite, there's no need for 5 different socialist parties in Galizia alone.
Also, this is the result of the Cisleithanian election 1911. If anything they need less representation to stabilize politics - an electoral threshold of 5 % or so to force the micro parties to unite, there's no need for 5 different socialist parties in Galizia alone.
Last edited:
Only meaning was that Bolshevik revolution would enforce Russia to peace. That Germans helped Lenin not mean they they wouldn't stab him bo back later.
I wonder, in the long run, if Austria-Hungary splits up, with at least Hungary (within pre-1918 borders) becoming independent, is it likely that Austria (at least the German speaking parts, but possibly also other areas) might eventually become part of Germany?
An interesting question is also what a CP-victory might mean for France and the UK. I assume that they would have to give up at least some of their colonies and will have to pay reparations to the central powers, but might France also have to give up some border areas close to Germany (of course Elsass-Lothringen was already German and only was returned to France as part of the Treaty_of_Versailles)?
What would a defeat have to say for the internal political development of France and the UK? French political history had been unstable after the French_Revolution, and it seems likely that either an ATL fascist or an authoritarian leader in the tradition of Napoleon might come to power if France should encounter something like the economic crisis Germany encountered before the nazi takeover. The UK had a stable political internal history after the English_Civil_War, so I assume that British democracy would not be seriously threatened, although maybe one would see a stronger ATL fascist-like movement?
But that was in a situation when Germany was getting desperate. They might have acted differently in a stronger position, and as Lalli writes, even if they had helped Lenin, they might have turned against him later, fearing that he might be an inspiration for revolutionaries in their own country, and maybe even sponsor them. Maybe the best result for Germany would be a divided Russia, with the white forces controlling the areas closest to Germany, while the communists were controlling other areas. In such a scenario a white Russia could become a useful ally (and puppet state) of Germany.
An interesting question is also what a CP-victory might mean for France and the UK. I assume that they would have to give up at least some of their colonies and will have to pay reparations to the central powers, but might France also have to give up some border areas close to Germany (of course Elsass-Lothringen was already German and only was returned to France as part of the Treaty_of_Versailles)?
What would a defeat have to say for the internal political development of France and the UK? French political history had been unstable after the French_Revolution, and it seems likely that either an ATL fascist or an authoritarian leader in the tradition of Napoleon might come to power if France should encounter something like the economic crisis Germany encountered before the nazi takeover. The UK had a stable political internal history after the English_Civil_War, so I assume that British democracy would not be seriously threatened, although maybe one would see a stronger ATL fascist-like movement?
But that was in a situation when Germany was getting desperate. They might have acted differently in a stronger position, and as Lalli writes, even if they had helped Lenin, they might have turned against him later, fearing that he might be an inspiration for revolutionaries in their own country, and maybe even sponsor them. Maybe the best result for Germany would be a divided Russia, with the white forces controlling the areas closest to Germany, while the communists were controlling other areas. In such a scenario a white Russia could become a useful ally (and puppet state) of Germany.
If only Hungary leaves A-H, probably rump Austria (named as Austria-Slavia?) probably remain independent. But if Czechia and Croatia leaves, probably Germany then annex rest of the nation.
From Brits Germans are not going take anything nor give much or any terms. Only thing would be some kind of status quo but nothing else. From France Germany takes some colonies and border regions. There would be too military restrictions and reparations. French internal politics might be quiet messy but it hardly is ever rising against Germany. France haven't anymore resources do anything and hardly even battle will. Even in OTL France was almost exhausted before end of WW1. And ITTL Great War would be second war which it lost to Germany lesser than in fifty years. Any regime would have much difficulties enforce French to third war against Germans.
Germaniac
Donor
On the phone now, I'll expand later.
Early victory - Ottomans can survive depending on how quickly Enver can be removed from power.
Late Victory - Ottomans are done for. With the Armenian ethnic cleansing, the fronts collapsing, and Turkish nationalism firmly entrenched the Ottomans are not going to hold onto much more than the Turks have today... maybe Mosul and northern Syria but thats a stretch even.
Early victory - Ottomans can survive depending on how quickly Enver can be removed from power.
Late Victory - Ottomans are done for. With the Armenian ethnic cleansing, the fronts collapsing, and Turkish nationalism firmly entrenched the Ottomans are not going to hold onto much more than the Turks have today... maybe Mosul and northern Syria but thats a stretch even.
Riain
Banned
In 1914 the Kaiser gave orders for the Prussian parliament to look into changing the 3 class franchise. This slipped through the cracks when the war started, but in easter 1917 the Kaiser publicly announced that 3 class franchise was unacceptable with millions of warriors fighting for Germany and would be abolished when the war ended. Given the importance of Prussia in the imperial German constitution and political structure this change is a major liberalism of German political life. A CP win and going forward with this has no parallel IOTL with Weimar and the Nazis.
I suspect that similar measures exist in AH and OE to grant significant political liberalism within the imperial and constitutional monarchy structure. If Russia can stand up the Duma in response to the revolution of 1905 the any country can do it.
I suspect that similar measures exist in AH and OE to grant significant political liberalism within the imperial and constitutional monarchy structure. If Russia can stand up the Duma in response to the revolution of 1905 the any country can do it.
There probably wouldn't be enough appetite (or manpower) to get involved in the Russian civil war so directly and so soon. The eastern front was basically won by the fall of 1917, and with the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in place (which means hegemony over the Baltic duchies, Belarus, and Ukraine, plus reparations), there's no point in getting bogged down in the civil war.
If the internationalist faction of the Communist Party takes power in Russia, then, yes, renewed conflict starts looking more credible (in an alternate WW2, perhaps), but it'd be a while.
Again, it all depends when the war is won.
Riain
Banned
German occupation forces in Ober Ost could provide a lot of support short of military action to the Whites. If military action was undertaken it would be not on the scale of ww1. IOTL the US sent 11,000 troops and British maybe double that number, Japan 70000 troops and Greece 23000 to the Russian revolution. I doubt such numbers would be a great burden on Germany in 1919.
History Learner
Banned
Survival is the most likely option. The fact that both Empires survived four years of industrial warfare, and didn't really fall apart until October of 1918 speaks volumes. The Turks especially, given their later ability to get better terms.
Why are the fronts collapsing? They did OTL, but it might be different in this timeline. Even with a late victory, we would probably need quite an early POD. Maybe the Ottomans manage to convince Hussein bin Ali that Britain could not be trusted. They might even decide to federalize the empire in order to make the Arabs more loyal. About the Armenians, who should help them? There is no reason to believe that Russia would be in any better position to help the Armenians in this scenario, where the CP powers would be stronger relative to the Entente powers.
The other CPs collapsed because Germany was too hard=pressed to prop them up any longer. Germany wins, they don't collapse.
Germaniac
Donor
Fair enough, by late victory I meam 1918 Spring offensive.
Palestine is mostly lost (including Jerusalem) and Baghdad has fallen, and Germany and Austria are not about to send the kind of forces needed (nor can the ottoman supply lines sustain them) to take them back. The British have ample amounts of Indian Troops coming into the theater.
Ottoman manpower had been spent for a generation, their "industry" is nonexistent, and Greece is now in the war once again posing a grave threat to the straights. At this point i find it very unlikely the Ottomans can repel attacks against the Entente in the Aegean.
The Ottomans have invested in the Caucasus for little reason but Turkic nationalism and have greatly infuriated the Germans and their plans for the region, while wasting valuable resources which should be used elsewhere.
Thinking they would federalize is totally missing the current regimes goals. There would only be further centralization into their hands. Anything else is capitulation and defeat in their eyes. They will go down in flames before any further reform.
The question of Armenians isn't about intervention it's about the Ottomans relations with its minorities. While the Arabs have stayed loyal (forget the Arab revolt, it is mostly a sideshow and played little in the Empire... VAST majority were loyal to the Sultan as Caliph) the Turks are not going to play nice with Arabs who remain.
IMO By 1918 the Ottoman government is a proto-fascist regime where massacre and racial supremacy reign. An early end to the war there is still a chance... but Enver was a madman with Hitleresque visions of grandeur. The CUP's most extreme wing had already neutered the moderates and the opposition had been eradicated. Things were not going to end well.
I don´t really think it is realistic with a CP victory with a POD after the United States joined the allied powers, so even if the war lasted until 1918/1919, you would need a POD before the US joined the war. That is, you would have to avoid that Germany would be so hard pressed that they had to attack US merchant ships.
Apart from that, as Mikestone8 wrote:
Apart from that, as Mikestone8 wrote: