Scenario for a cease fire:
Germany does not do unrestricted submarine warfare.
No USA entry means shortage of funds means no Major English or French attacks on the western front after a certain point.
The USW was only one point, that lead to the entry of the USA. IMHO the Zimmermenn-telegram was much more important to tip the tide against germany in USA.
However the Kerensky government, without USA entry, instead of launching a offensive, seeks a cease fire, this is granted by Germany in June 1917 as it relieves pressure on Turkey and Austria. German, Austrian and Turkish POWs are released. Russian POWs are released but Germans hold on to officers. Russians evacuate areas of Turkey they occupy, but otherwise front lines are kept, Russians are to assist mine sweeping in Baltic and Black seas. No official peace is made so no official trade occurs. Romania is forced into a cease fire as well and is forced to open the Danube to the Black sea for Central powers shipping.
After the February revolution the Lwow-goverment was fond of a peace with the CP "without annexiations and contributions". The Kerenski Offensive was meant to get into a better position for bargaining such an armistice/peace.
Therefore it would have happened anyway. ... IMHO
Note: Greece remains neutral in this scenario as well.
Difficult to achive. Only the King was really fond of helping the CP with staying out of the war (he did NOT wanted to enter on their side). And the offers of the Allies ... were just too tempting as well as a victoriuos Bulgaria wasn't the must wished for situation.
Significant German and Austrian forces are released, however there is no pressing timetable to force an offensive because there is no USA in the war.
The pressing timetable for germany was not only the USA entry but also (maybe even more important) their own deteriorating economic situation.
A Central powers major offensive in October 1917 (more than OTL) in Italy, takes Venice and forces a cease fire. Italy is required to evacuate Albania, Allies evacuate Salonika and Corfu to focus on Palestine and France.
Austria and Bulgaria are no longer really involved in the war although Austria sends a few good divisions to France.
1918 looms but Britain and France are still able to maintain a blockade and focused on defense for a year and without wasting offensives are able to hold off the German offensives which make progress but fail to take any key objectives like Amiens.
Fair enough your thoughts for 1917.
But ... keeping up the blockade without USA ... and were should they get the money (USA loans) for keeping their OWN troops going with enough supply ?
With amost a year of preparation - without further losses in the east - the german spring offensive of TTL 1918 would IMHO become devastating for the Allies, who by then would run on much shorter supply than OTL.
Good chances for germany to take Amiens as well as reach the channel coast, cutting off BEF from France proper with a second thrust against Paris then.
But ... beside, what I've said about Russia and Kerensky ...
as with every WW I ATL, the main problem is to really keep the USA out of the game, which is more complicated to achive, than one might think of in the beginning.