WW1 begins as UK in middle of General Election

Something I'm thinking about in the context of my long inactive Frozen Spring TL, which I'm trying to revive.

Basic premise is that a general election is called after Sarajevo, but before the Russians start even partial mobilisation. Broad timetable is below. For the background to the election see the Frozen Spring TL in my sig line.
  • Election called 9 July 1914
  • Dissolution of Parliament 20 July
  • Election period 30 July - 14 August (at this time voting took place over an extended period, not on a single day)
This places the events leading to Germany declaring war on France and Russia slap in the middle of the voting period, when there are no MPs, although ministers remain in post. In addition a Declaration of War is a Royal prerogative, although exercised by Ministers in the King's name.

In theory therefore Asquith could go to war as per OTL, but that seems very unlikely. The question then becomes: How does Britain react to the events in Europe?

What I'm suggesting is that Asquith meets with Bonar Law and perhaps other party leaders and proposes that, whatever the outcome of the election, there should be a National Coalition led by whoever would in normal circumstances be asked to form a government which would last for 1 year or until the crisis in Europe is resolved, whichever comes first. I think it would take the actual invasion of Belgium to make this feasible. So around 7th August, the formal coalition agreement is announced. This is followed within a day or so by the mobilisation of the Army as a defensive measure. Asquith's announcement on this is to the effect that:
  • events in Europe are serious
  • cannot place the country at risk because of the election uncertainties
  • election will continue
  • mobilisation ordered as defensive measure and to give new government the maximum flexibility in deciding on its response to the crisis.
Some questions:
  1. Does this seem feasible/likely?
  2. What would be probable response from Germany and France?
  3. What would be likely political response at home (assuming Bonar Law on side)
  4. Any other consequences?
 
This is fascinating, and a rare POD where you can get the British sitting out for awhile even WITH a German invasion of Belgium.

The one nitpick is that the reasons why the election is happening in the summer of 1914 would have to be addressed. While the Asquith government was a minority government, the minor parties supporting it were unlikely to bring it down, and it was viewed very likely that they would lose the next general election, so Asquith had every reason to delay it.

There are two near precedents. The first is 1914 itself, the government was focused on a crisis in Ireland and did not switch its attention to the continental war until very late. This probably gave the two hawks, Grey and Churchill, more freedom of action than they would have had otherwise.

The other is in 1945, where after some discussion of delaying it, the election was called with the UK still at war in the Pacific and the Potsdam conference scheduled during the election itself. It was known at the time that these things would happen and they were handled. The election led to a change of government, like a 1914 one probably would have.

As you pointed out, the declaration of war is a royal perogative and the Ministry continues in office during the election campaign. Parliament can also be recalled in the middle of an election campaign. And I think Asquith did consult Bonar Law during the campaign. So not much may change.

The optics would change, and it would likely move up the date of the 1915 Conservative - Liberal Coalition. I could see people viewing a group of Liberal ministers taking the UK into a war, and then being replaced a few weeks later by a group of Tory ministers, as a problem. It would be too late for an electoral pact, so individual constituencies would still switch parties.
 
The reasons for the election are covered in the original TL. I'm writing a 'story so far' post to bring things all together which will help. In the context of the ATL - we've had an election in 1913 with inconclusive outcomes leading to Liberal-Labour coalition, but fragile. The 1914 election called because of potential loss of support from Irish Party and from the Labour members of the coalition and the failure of the constitutional convention. (Think 1919 Speakers Conference on Devolution held pre-war and poorly managed.) My intent was to leave the outcome still inconclusive but war breaking out during an election campaign is likely to make things a tad more complicated!

Parliament can't be recalled because it has been dissolved and doesn't exist. Former MPs are just that. It might be possible for King to use Royal Prerogative to reinstate them, but that would be a major butterfly in terms of its effect on politics generally.

From the Parliament web site:
Dissolution is the official term for the end of a Parliament before a general election. When Parliament is dissolved every seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant. MPs immediately revert to being members of the general public and those who wish to become MPs again must stand for election as candidates.

Asquith did meet Bonar Law in the run up to the UK DoW, but that was while there was a sitting parliament. I can't find anything which sets out the constitutional position in the event of something like I'm setting up. Of course it is that very uncertainty I want...

I have worked out a timetable that would allow a DoW by Britain almost exactly 4 weeks later than the Aug 4th in OTL. I can obviously stretch that out, but I haven't come up with a way to bring it forward. I'm not yet decided if that DoW should happen. I have a few events to bring in from 'off-stage' yet...
 
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