WW1 alliance between Germany and France against Britain possible?

OTL the original intent of the German risk fleet was to force British friendship, not a diabolic plan of world conquest.

When did I say that Germany had some diabolic plan of world conquest?

Really? Would you like to provide a reference to support this fiction? Let me guess, perhaps the Kaiser wrote some bad things about the British in the margins while he was in a bad mood? Historically the closest the Germans ever got with Russia was a non-aggression pact, which is a long way from the conspiracy theory you are stitching together.

Nothing to do with what the Kaiser wrote. And I fail to see what the Kaiser has to do with deciding French and Russian policy or what the Kaiser had to do with popular opinion anywhere.

And I am going off of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy and a history book on France which is buried in a box so I can't check either the author or the title for you. I know, frustrating answer.

but because the Germans calculated an understanding between Britain and Germany was inevitable and Germany should not sell itself short.

Now this is interesting. Do you know any sources that go into this in more detail?

The need to do so arose from British (mis)calculations that the Franco-Russian alliance represented more of a threat than Germany i.e. the British foreign office was pursuing a policy of appeasement.

OK, I've never heard this before. What's your source?

fasquardon
 

BooNZ

Banned
When did I say that Germany had some diabolic plan of world conquest?
Folks routinely depict imperial Germany and/or Wilhelm as second rate bond villains, whose sole purpose for existance is the destrution of Britain etc. Sorry if I misinterpreated your position.

Nothing to do with what the Kaiser wrote. And I fail to see what the Kaiser has to do with deciding French and Russian policy or what the Kaiser had to do with popular opinion anywhere.
Sorry, I have never heard of any plausible continental conspiracies against the British, so I assumed you were relying on some random statement from the Kaiser, who becasue of his erratic with his love and hate for everything, so is sometimes quoted to support more less robust arguments.

And I am going off of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy and a history book on France which is buried in a box so I can't check either the author or the title for you. I know, frustrating answer.
I empathize, having boxes of books across different locations can make treasure hunts thoroughly demoralizing. Can you recall a few clues as to what perios or incident suggested a potential reconciliation between Germany and France? I cannot imagine a plausible scenario.

Now this is interesting. Do you know any sources that go into this in more detail?
It is a recurring theme in the book Dreadnaught by Massie.

OK, I've never heard this before. What's your source?
The use of the word appeasement is my own, to describe the British intent to back what it believed to be the stronger cluster of continental powers of France and Russia. Eyre Crowe was an ever present force in the British Foreign office driving the anti German sentiment pervading British diplomacy, but Crowe is on record as stating the one thing he feared more than Germany was a Franco-Russian alliance.

Niall Ferguson and Christopher Clarke (I think) have both suggested British diplomatic choices were influenced by perceived German weakness, which is the antithesis to the recurring argument that "the British" were determined to maintain the balance of power.
 
You'd need a PoD in 1871, with Bismark winning the argument with Moltke over the peace terms. Bismark didn't want to take land from France to prevent permanent enmity, as with the end of the Austro-Prussian War in 1866. Moltke wanted to secure a definsible military frontier forward of the Rhine.

With Alsace-Lorraine part of Germany, no detente between France and Germany is possible for at least a generation; take that away and it could happen.

You'd then need to raise Franco-British tensions, most likely via increased colonial competition. Britain would then look to establish a new European alliance which - if France and Germany reconcile - might be Russia, who would need a new partner if they can't rely on France against Germany.

That in turn would prevent an alliance between Britain and Japan, who would turn to France. With Germany, France and Austria-Hungary allied then Italy would need new allies; Russia and Britain.

All told you could end up with France-Germany-Austria vs. Britain-Italy-Russia. The central powers win the war in Europe, but Britain seizes French, German and Italian colonies outside of North Africa.

At the end of the war the Franco-German alliance collapses, as the French have spent blood and treasure for Austro-German gains in the Balkans and Baltic, whilst losing colonies - which actually matter to them, unlike the German colonial empire. Russia and France now ally, betrayed by their respective allies.
 
So who else apart from Britain would see this alliance as dangerous?

Would those nations not then seek to ally themselves with the UK to form a counter alliance?

That was pretty much the pattern!
 
Folks routinely depict imperial Germany and/or Wilhelm as second rate bond villains, whose sole purpose for existance is the destrution of Britain etc. Sorry if I misinterpreated your position.

Not at all. If anything I was depicting the British as Bond villains...

Can you recall a few clues as to what perios or incident suggested a potential reconciliation between Germany and France? I cannot imagine a plausible scenario.

It was an English-language history of modern France written by a French historian and the chapter I'm going off of was on the foreign policy of the 1890s. I'd need to check the dates, but I think the French government of the time attempted to make an alliance with Germany before they got interested in Russia. Dim memory says it may have been in 1892 or 1893.

And all of my history books on France have said that the whole Alsace Lorraine thing is overblown in popular memory due to WW1. In the 1870s and 1880s passion over AL was high. In the 1890s it was a delicate issue, but not insurmountable. From 1900-1913 it was something that was on the wishlist of things to reach a diplomatic solution for, but was not seen as worth fighting a war for.

So while France never gave up on getting it back, that wasn't necessarily an impediment to an alliance.

Sorry, I have never heard of any plausible continental conspiracies against the British

Well, there wasn't a continental conspiracy against Germany in OTL.

The Franco-Russian alliance for example was a defensive alliance and I imagine most people in the countries in any anti-British alliance would see it as a defensive one.

So who else apart from Britain would see this alliance as dangerous?

I can see Russia feeling pretty threatened by it.

An alt-WW1 with France, Germany, Austria Hungary and the Ottomans versus Britain, Russia, Japan and Italy anyone? (Not to imply that WW1 was inevitable or anything.) The US as always would be a swing vote. As would the smaller powers.

fasquardon
 
The use of the word appeasement is my own, to describe the British intent to back what it believed to be the stronger cluster of continental powers of France and Russia. Eyre Crowe was an ever present force in the British Foreign office driving the anti German sentiment pervading British diplomacy, but Crowe is on record as stating the one thing he feared more than Germany was a Franco-Russian alliance.

Niall Ferguson and Christopher Clarke (I think) have both suggested British diplomatic choices were influenced by perceived German weakness, which is the antithesis to the recurring argument that "the British" were determined to maintain the balance of power.

In this assessment I admit I agree and I find the logic of British moves driven by the lack of confidence in German strength versus Russia, a fear of being left out when the Russians become dominant and the Germans being a longer term naval threat needing a sooner solution. It appears counter-intuitive on the surface but it begins to clarify how Britain reacted to Germany who as we know was not nearly as mighty as they looked, for me the German weakness becomes too much a liability as Britain could not act purely on the sideline instead having to fight in Germany, so the easier strategy was to contain Europe dominated by Russia and/or France and divide them against each other next.

Now had the Russo-Japanese War been avoided or not so obviously defeated Russian ambitions, the Russians loom larger and for me ironically too potent not to contain sooner. Will that get the British in bed with Germany? I think we need some greater friction with France to leave Britain no good options, I think Germany was last on the list really, but a defeated Japan, more aggressive France, looming Russia and higher tensions over China might leave Britain with the Triple Alliance as the best counter weight. And that might put the OE into play as well, indeed maybe French competition alienate the British with Russian designs on it feeding British fears. In my mind a British/German alliance is a desperation move by Britain who would prefer to hang unaffiliated or side with the likely stronger alliance. that is itself potentially explosive. Indeed with a stronger Russia from 1905 forward we might curb the Franco-Russian alliance itself, further casting doubt on Britain aligning with anyone, instead bolstering German efforts to contain Russian ambitions and/or A-H in stabilizing the Balkans?
 
1. Russia would give it all for it.
2. Perhaps oil wasn't the key reason for the war, but it was already known that oil is going to be a strategic resource for the future. Didn't the Germans and Brits have oil cooperation before the war?
3. OK.
4. Instead of Lawrence of Arabia, history remembers Ludwig of Arabia who promised Arabs a united state?

If Russia gains Straits and Armenia, Russia also renounces on Serbia and her claims.


Your looking for this guy: Wilhelm Wassmuss
 

BooNZ

Banned
Not at all. If anything I was depicting the British as Bond villains...
Interesting, I would depict Britain as the bond girl, hot but often superfluous to the plot. France as 007, since French diplomacy between 1871 and 1914 was masterful. You could choose either, Germany/A-H or Russia/Serbia as bond villains, depending on your proclivities...

It was an English-language history of modern France written by a French historian and the chapter I'm going off of was on the foreign policy of the 1890s. I'd need to check the dates, but I think the French government of the time attempted to make an alliance with Germany before they got interested in Russia. Dim memory says it may have been in 1892 or 1893.
Thanks. I guess the French might have attempted to score Germany on the rebound after it had dropped Russia, but I always got the impression Germany was saving itself for Britain, who was playing hard to get.

And all of my history books on France have said that the whole Alsace Lorraine thing is overblown in popular memory due to WW1. In the 1870s and 1880s passion over AL was high. In the 1890s it was a delicate issue, but not insurmountable. From 1900-1913 it was something that was on the wishlist of things to reach a diplomatic solution for, but was not seen as worth fighting a war for.

So while France never gave up on getting it back, that wasn't necessarily an impediment to an alliance.
The fact the French socialists (cumulatively) gained a majority in the 1914 French general election on a platform of reconciliation with Germany supports this notion.

The Franco-Russian alliance for example was a defensive alliance and I imagine most people in the countries in any anti-British alliance would see it as a defensive one.
As demonstrated by the requirement each member launch offensives against Germany within 15 days? In the early 1890s, sure the Franco-Russian alliance was defensive, but by 1914 the alliance had more-or-less abandoned the defensive from a military planning and military doctrine perspective.
 
Now had the Russo-Japanese War been avoided or not so obviously defeated Russian ambitions, the Russians loom larger and for me ironically too potent not to contain sooner. Will that get the British in bed with Germany? I think we need some greater friction with France to leave Britain no good options, I think Germany was last on the list really, but a defeated Japan, more aggressive France, looming Russia and higher tensions over China might leave Britain with the Triple Alliance as the best counter weight. And that might put the OE into play as well, indeed maybe French competition alienate the British with Russian designs on it feeding British fears. In my mind a British/German alliance is a desperation move by Britain who would prefer to hang unaffiliated or side with the likely stronger alliance. that is itself potentially explosive. Indeed with a stronger Russia from 1905 forward we might curb the Franco-Russian alliance itself, further casting doubt on Britain aligning with anyone, instead bolstering German efforts to contain Russian ambitions and/or A-H in stabilizing the Balkans?

The French were already getting worried enough about dragged in to a war to support Russian expansionism. A more powerful Russia may also lead to France seeking an exit from the Entente.

And Britain and Germany allying would definitely have France looking for the exit. France was looking for security, not friends for a revenge pact. If Britain and Germany are allies, I bet France would seek to ally with one or the other or both.

As demonstrated by the requirement each member launch offensives against Germany within 15 days? In the early 1890s, sure the Franco-Russian alliance was defensive, but by 1914 the alliance had more-or-less abandoned the defensive from a military planning and military doctrine perspective.

Yes well. The state of military planning in all of the powers was an accident waiting to happen. That's part of why WW1 happened.

But the intent was not aggressive. The intent was that neither France nor Russia should be dragged into a war that the other had started.

fasquardon
 
The French were already getting worried enough about dragged in to a war to support Russian expansionism. A more powerful Russia may also lead to France seeking an exit from the Entente.

And Britain and Germany allying would definitely have France looking for the exit. France was looking for security, not friends for a revenge pact. If Britain and Germany are allies, I bet France would seek to ally with one or the other or both.

In any no Great War scenario the longer term would be Franco-Russian estrangement, the Socialists were moving towards some reconciliation, and the autocratic Russians were strange bedfellows for Republican France. If we had an Anglo-German accord then I think France still picks Britain but backs off the revanche and merely keeps a wary eye on Germany, burgeoning trade will lessen the sting.
 
In any no Great War scenario the longer term would be Franco-Russian estrangement, the Socialists were moving towards some reconciliation, and the autocratic Russians were strange bedfellows for Republican France. If we had an Anglo-German accord then I think France still picks Britain but backs off the revanche and merely keeps a wary eye on Germany, burgeoning trade will lessen the sting.

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Franco-German alliance if WW1 was delayed. Germany was far more democratic that Russia.

I'm not sure that France would get to pick Britain. But certainly strengthening diplomatic ties would be sought and gained - trade understandings, colonial understandings, scientific exchanges. Seeking to bind Britain in silk before the British realized they were too entangled with France to not help her be secure.

fasquardon
 
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