WW 2 in a No Italian Ethopian Adventure

[DuQuense]

In 1935 when Italy began planning for Ethiopia, they approached France and Britain, and got a tentative Green Light, as both countries indicated that Ethiopia was out of either sphere of Influence.

But WI
When Italy approached them, Both France and Britain indicated they would be very displeased, and would help enforce any LoN sanctions.
Italy backs off, While still pushing gently in the Border areas of Ethiopia, and moving in Economically. Italy devotes more [Than OTL] effort/resources to Libya,

Italy isn't pushed away from France/Britain, and into German Embrace.
However without Ethiopia, Italy doesn't learn how bad it's military is.
Come 1938 and Germany moves to take Austria, Mussolini opposes, but is informed by his Generals, that Italy doesn't have the ability to do anything.
Italy begins a major overhaul, beginning with licensing the best designs from other Countries.

Asumming the same German moves Septembre 1~3rd as OTL. Italy DoWs German at the same time as France and Britain.

? How does this affect WW 2?

 

[Alratan]

In a scenario where Italy has remained aligned with France and the UK against Germany, it's army will probably be significantly stronger, as the relevance of the Regina Marina will be lower.

Equally, or perhaps more importantly to Italy's immediate survivability, the massive program of coastal defences that Italy enganed in in the late '30s, fortifying southern Italy, Sardinia, Sicily, and the Dodecanese, will have been much less expansive. This is a particular advatange for Italy, as much of the expenditure disappeared without producing much useful output thanks to corruption. If this expenditure is instead directed to fortifying the Alpine passes and the north in general, then I would expect far more to be done, both for cultural reasons, and because the investement will be far more concentrated it's far easier to inspect the works and ensure that it's actually been done, compared to bunkers spread over hundreds of miles of coastline.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Hmm, as I see it; Italy would be pushed earlier into the German camp if France and Britain had forbidden them to invade. If you want to keep the Stresa Front alive you have to make Ethiopia not an issue. I'm planning a TL where Ras Tafari dies young, and Ethiopia is in chaos after the Liv Iyasu is dethroned and Zauditu is in power. With no pro- reform character in Zauditu's government and the slavery situation is deteriorating as OTL; France, Britain and Italy move in with league support in the early 20s and create the Mandated areas of Ethiopia. Thus ther will be no Abyssinian war.

 

[Cornelius]

Hmm, as I see it; Italy would be pushed earlier into the German camp if France and Britain had forbidden them to invade. If you want to keep the Stresa Front alive you have to make Ethiopia not an issue.

I agree. Besides Mussolini desired a military adventure to test the prowess of his army and Abyssinia was the designed target. Even if the whole ethiopian mess would be avoided, Mussolini would have searched another place to stretch his muscles.

However without Ethiopia, Italy doesn't learn how bad it's military is.
Come 1938 and Germany moves to take Austria, Mussolini opposes, but is informed by his Generals, that Italy doesn't have the ability to do anything.
Italy begins a major overhaul, beginning with licensing the best designs from other Countries.

No, this is highly unlikely. The italian high military and political spheres always ignored truth in favour of propaganda in both Ethiopia and Spain. Italians should have lost badly in the SCW, for example, to induce a real change.

The whole licensing issue would be difficult since would clash with the fascist ideology. But the real problem for Italy during WW2 is industrial capability, which is low. Consider for example the tank P40/42: it was an honest medium tank planned in 1940 but built only in 1942. Had entered service in 1940 it would have been a good tank for the italian army, but in 1942 was well behind the others tank.