Considering he was fighting a two front war the US came off pretty well.Oh poor Lincoln, this is going to hurt him even more
Considering he was fighting a two front war the US came off pretty well.Oh poor Lincoln, this is going to hurt him even more
VERY well I'd say.Considering he was fighting a two front war the US came off pretty well.
So a reverse Battle of New Orleans?Chapter 92: The Summer Sun of York
Well, the Canadians seem to have ended their part in this war on a victory. This might be a boost to their national pride, but in the medium term it primarily makes the yankees more likely to have more hawks clamouring for a rematch with Britain at the next opportunity though.
So a reverse Battle of New Orleans?
He did come off well, but this will be used as another body blow against him and the Republicans in the election. In a theater they’d been dominate in for over a year, suddenly sees the Canadians storm defended positions, routing a Federal Army, liberating to Toronto while the American General is hot footing it south with his men. If McClellan is the Democratic Nominee you can guarantee he and his backers will hammer the existent administration over their handling of the war, especially after Lee’s great victory. Honestly it seems like Lincoln’s chances are sinking lower and lower, he needs a major and decisive victory to convince the American people they can still fight through to victoryConsidering he was fighting a two front war the US came off pretty well.
I will admit I'm curious in the long term ramifications of all this. I forget if you said the confederacy would win the war. Also I doubt the US would be favorable to the British if WW1 ever happens.
He did come off well, but this will be used as another body blow against him and the Republicans in the election. In a theater they’d been dominate in for over a year, suddenly sees the Canadians storm defended positions, routing a Federal Army, liberating to Toronto while the American General is hot footing it south with his men. If McClellan is the Democratic Nominee you can guarantee he and his backers will hammer the existent administration over their handling of the war, especially after Lee’s great victory. Honestly it seems like Lincoln’s chances are sinking lower and lower, he needs a major and decisive victory to convince the American people they can still fight through to victory
And so the Anglo american war ends like it started a giant misunderstanding a fumbled missed and the canadians being more into it then the other parties .
It's not clear unless I've overlooked it, what the territorial demands of the British are. The British can play the card of Recognition of the CSA, which costs them nothing but would be a very expensive card to the Americans.
So if I were the British, I would want as a minimum.
1. At least 1/2 of Maine which is strategically significant because of the railway.
2. A border straightening at Lake of the Woods.
3. The territory North & West of the Columbia River, which would solve the San Juan islands issue.
Was inflation a known, formalized concept back then ? I don't know if economic theory was so advanced as to consider this. I would have figured the reparations be pegged to a gold standard instead, more in the air of the time, like what the Germans did with the French in 1871 (5 billion Gold Francs over three years): http://gander.chez.com/traite-de-francfort.htm .The value of this indemnity shall not be increased according to inflation beyond the time of the Ratification of these articles.
Was inflation a known, formalized concept back then ? I don't know if economic theory was so advanced as to consider this. I would have figured the reparations be pegged to a gold standard instead, more in the air of the time, like what the Germans did with the French in 1871 (5 billion Gold Francs over three years): http://gander.chez.com/traite-de-francfort.htm .
So... my guess was right!But, I still think that the USA will say goodbye to an island group best known for a war that was going to break over for a shooting of a pig of all things also known as the San Juan Islands, and a giant potato field in Maine, known as Aroostook County.
Except that the indemnity is denominated in British pounds unless I'm mistaken.It was known, but how formalized is - insofar as I understand - relative to various national currencies. The United States has included this partially because the government suspended payment in gold for goods and services back in late 1861 less the Treasury be cleaned out and partially because inflation is ravaging the US economy right now which is a problem. Pegging it to the Greenback as of late 1864 means the US can get some sort of tackle on the domestic situation, especially as they have to watch how markets react to everyone being relieved at the opening up of the economy again.
OTL there were enough greenbacks in circulation that it took until roughly 1877 for them to reach parity with gold and the government issued the Specie Repayment Resumption Act, offsetting the economic calamity which had been taking place during that time, which was coupled with an outflow of capital to Europe. However, by the time greenbacks reached parity with gold most people accepted them as currency. This was the debate that got the "hard" and "soft" currency political/economic battles of the Gilded Age. There's debate about the relative effect of this on economic growth, but that's more than I care to get into!
For our purposes, the worst the Greenbacks hit OTL was about 258$ in Greenbacks to 100$ in gold before falling to a more reasonable rate in mid 1865 of 150 - 100. Here, in mid 1864 it's over 300 - 100, with a corresponding lack of investment capital in the US thanks to the blockade and the flight of European capital thanks to the war. So Lincoln and his negotiators are very sensitive to how the indemnity will be greeted by the public lest it ruin confidence in the greenbacks, and by extension, the monetary policy of the United States.
So... my guess was right!
Indeed, USA said goodbye to that potato field and the pig island!
But, they also said goodbye to a part of Washington County, which I suspect will have a name change.
Also, in a final note, I feel like there will be lots of heated fights between Quebec and New Brunswick about who should control these lands.
The loans could be interesting in how they play out. Only British and French banks can provide that amount in loans at the time, and I suspect that this aspect would have likely been taken into account during the negotiations. Because taking out loans means also paying interests on these loans, and if these loans are provided by British banks, perhaps as a tacit understanding reached along the treaty, then British banks stand to pocket a huge sum, de facto artificially inflating the war indemnities owed to the UK.
Or perhaps the Americans might as well go behind's the British banks' back and negotiate better interest rates with French banks. Would not it be funny ?
By the time the US would default on the debts they'll be at peace (somehow) with the Confederates (either a peace treaty or conquest). And regardless, it would take a *while* for the US military to get even close to as weak as the Mexican one.They may resist the name change, but it could also be incorporated into the neighboring New Brunswick counties. I personally think that these new Canadians will probably stubbornly resist a name change and incorporate the heritage, if only as a symbolic act of resistance.
Oh you may have nailed one of the big political hissy fits of early Confederation right on the head there!
A certain possibility. The Americans are currently having big money problems and will continue to do so for quite a while regardless of the outcome of the war. The US banking system will be relying on greenbacks as legal tender well into the future, with confidence that they're worth anything being quite shaky. The need for hard currency stocks is going to be huge. So huge any amount of gold will be seen as important.
Money policy post-war is going to be a big political issue to say the least.
Well France would never invade a North American country because of unpaid debts, right? Though more amusingly the ghosts of the French Revolution might be very amused at the irony of the nascent United States reneging on its debts to France and then having to pay up to get their own indemnity paid off.